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MAG5035

Central PA - March 2018

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New thread to kick March off and this storm that is just getting going over the region. 

The ship has pretty well sailed on who is going to get the most significant snow impacts of this storm, which will be up in the western and southern tier regions of NY State. The NY border PA counties could see some significant snow as well. I'm pretty bummed about this to be sure, running the primary low right through PA despite significant -NAO blocking. The major snow swath could have easily been right through our region with just a bit of a western ridge or even just a solid antecedent cold airmass.  The primary impacts for the rest of the region will be another miserable rainy event which will eventually turn into a lingering backlash elevation snow in the Laurel's and possibly the central counties as well (maybe some LSV sees a bit) and the wind of course.. will be howling as the low transfers to the coast and rapidly deepens. The tracks rough, right through PA which will largely slot off the best precip before changeover can really establish. The wind potentially could end up being the biggest impact this region see out of this outside of fringe areas seeing some of the main heavy snow swath and the Laurels probably benefitting the best out of the backlash (although there could be really rough cuz they will have some of the higher winds combined with snow). Models do try to pull some backlash across the state as the coastal gets going. 

Next upcoming system mid-late next week closes off in the northern plains/western lakes and eventually traverses our way with varying precip results, which again could be another rainer for the lower elevations although this particular system looks to finally reset the cold air on our side of the country for at least a time, which may buy us another chance at a snow event down the pike. Although that system itself will have to be watched for coastal development and/or inverted trough type action as well. Closed 500 low moves overhead and we finally get some western ridging so there could be a chance. Like I mentioned above though I'm def bummed about this current system, cuz I think it represented our best shot at a big one when it is still the beginning of March. 

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WWA here.

 

Winter Weather Advisory
Weather Updated: Mar 01 3:48PM
Issued by the National Weather Service
For Clearfield County, Pennsylvania
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 12AM EST FRI UNTIL 12AM EST SAT ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ARE EXPECTED. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. * WHEN...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS, INCLUDING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS AND WET, HEAVY SNOW MAY CAUSE TREE BRANCHES TO FALL, RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. BE PREPARED FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE PENNSYLVANIA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AND PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE COMMISSION REMIND MOTORISTS TO ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON DRIVING CONDITIONS AS WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS PENNSYLVANIA ROADWAYS. VISIT WWW.511PA.COM FOR THE LATEST TRAVEL, ROADWAY AND TRAFFIC CONDITIONS. &&

 

 

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12z Euro - looking solely at wind - looks like it ramps down later in the day with the gust potential (still there, but much less so than midday for instance). Maryland looks lto get hammered by winds though, yikes. Models can overamp winds right? 

Bright side - trees aren't leafed out yet! 

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17 minutes ago, canderson said:

12z Euro - looking solely at wind - looks like it ramps down later in the day with the gust potential (still there, but much less so than midday for instance). Maryland looks lto get hammered by winds though, yikes. Models can overamp winds right? 

Bright side - trees aren't leafed out yet! 

 10m wind max gusts "only" topping out around 45-50knots in the southern tier on the 12z Euro and it seems the best wind potential is south of the mason dixon. It's going to be very windy either way, with frequent 50-55mph gusts certainly attainable. I was figuring on a nearly areawide advisory as I hadn't really seen the models showing anything in the area that would support that extra oomph across warning criteria for wind gusts. I think the biggest potential for the warning criteria gusts will come overnight/early morning. Things should mix down pretty efficiently as the best precip slots out and the low pierces into PA and starts to transfer to the rapidly developing coastal. Downslope component will also be in play too on the westerly to northwesterly wind. High winds of at least advisory criteria are going to likely linger most of Friday. Should be interesting to watch unfold, I went straight to a high wind warning here in Blair. 

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2 hours ago, 2001kx said:

WWA here.

 

Winter Weather Advisory
Weather Updated: Mar 01 3:48PM
Issued by the National Weather Service
For Clearfield County, Pennsylvania
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 12AM EST FRI UNTIL 12AM EST SAT ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...SNOW EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ARE EXPECTED. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. * WHEN...PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS, INCLUDING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS AND WET, HEAVY SNOW MAY CAUSE TREE BRANCHES TO FALL, RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. BE PREPARED FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE PENNSYLVANIA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AND PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE COMMISSION REMIND MOTORISTS TO ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON DRIVING CONDITIONS AS WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS PENNSYLVANIA ROADWAYS. VISIT WWW.511PA.COM FOR THE LATEST TRAVEL, ROADWAY AND TRAFFIC CONDITIONS. &&

 

 

Enjoy bud. Glad for you. That’s the kind of spec wx statement I was thinking yesterday. Even if the snow struggles it’s better to be safe than sorry as power outages are likely if it all comes together. 

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Enjoy bud. Glad for you. That’s the kind of spec wx statement I was thinking yesterday. Even if the snow struggles it’s better to be safe than sorry as power outages are likely if it all comes together. 

I have my doubts but im pessimistic by nature.

 

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The rain has turned over to snow here in Altoona around 130 a.m.  The wind is howling with gusts easily in the 40 mph range.  Grassy areas are covered and the top of my truck is also.  Nothing on paved surfaces yet. Temp is at 33.9 and falling steadily at 230 a.m.

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6 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Snowing in Maytown when I left for work this morning. Surprised to see it down to 33 already. It's windy but nothing like I was expecting. 

I just said the same to co-workers. Its windy, but i was expecting more. 

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Just now, sauss06 said:

I just said the same to co-workers. Its windy, but i was expecting more. 

Seems like the very worst of the wind is down in the DC area from what I'm reading. Not envious of them at all. Hoping it doesn't get too bad for them. 

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Just now, maytownpawx said:

Seems like the very worst of the wind is down in the DC area from what I'm reading. Not envious of them at all. Hoping it doesn't get too bad for them. 

I knew they were calling for worse there, thats why i was concerned about my daughters flight, but she just text me they were taking off. 

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4 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

I knew they were calling for worse there, thats why i was concerned about my daughters flight, but she just text me they were taking off. 

Oh boy. I hope it's as smooth as possible. 

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Lightly snowing in Lititz with gusty winds. Don't know how much will lay but def nice to see.

Update: lasted only a few minutes. So that was I guess my 5 min of flurries. 

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Return of the snow..

555C78CD-354C-4367-B66C-49195841C659.thumb.jpeg.98bf422da9d13a3057a352e41f5c9505.jpeg

I had pretty low expectations on the backlash snow around here but precip transitioned to snow pretty rapidly around midnight or so and the backlash established pretty well around here overnight.. which was a hat tip to models like the Euro which has been showing more QPF via that in the last few cycles. Calling it about 2.2" averaging a few measurements but it varies due to the blustery wind. Couple half decent drifts considering this was a wet snow. Winds have been feisty but not quite high wind warning worthy. Though we have a pretty long way to go with the duration of the wind event. KAOO's high gust so far is 52 and JST 56mph. UNV's high gust is only 40mph although I'm sure winds have been higher than that.  Mid-Atlantic gang getting the brunt of that particular impact for sure, I think I saw someone post IAD (Dulles) had a gust to 67mph.  

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

Return of the snow..

I had pretty low expectations on the backlash snow around here but precip transitioned to snow pretty rapidly around midnight or so and the backlash established pretty well around here overnight.. which was a hat tip to models like the Euro which has been showing more QPF via that in the last few cycles. Calling it about 2.2" averaging a few measurements but it varies due to the blustery wind. Couple half decent drifts considering this was a wet snow. Winds have been feisty but not quite high wind warning worthy. Though we have a pretty long way to go with the duration of the wind event. KAOO's high gust so far is 52 and JST 56mph. UNV's high gust is only 40mph although I'm sure winds have been higher than that.  Mid-Atlantic gang getting the brunt of that particular impact for sure, I think I saw someone post IAD (Dulles) had a gust to 67mph.  

Yep, and I saw a report out of Frederick county, VA of a 76 mph gust! 

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and particularly intense bands could
periodically produce snowfall rates of 2-3"/hr. An intense area
of mid level frontogenetical forcing will allow a deformation
band of heavy snow to remain in place through much of the day
from Syracuse--Binghamton--Scranton and points east. Temperatures
will hold steady or even fall a few degrees through the
day...mainly 25-30F in the higher elevations and 28-33F in the
valleys. Snowfall rates begin to decrease after about 4 pm...but
snow showers and periods of light snow will persist into the
evening hours. Another aspect of this powerful storm system will
be the increasing winds. Winds shift out of the north-northwest
by mid to late morning....increase to 20-30 mph, with gusts
40-50 mph during the afternoon and early evening hours. This
will create areas of significant blow/drifting snow...with near
blizzard conditions possible at times over the higher terrain
today. Scattered power outages will also be a problem as the
initial snow is heavy/wet and will cling to the trees. Left
winter storm warnings in place as is for now. Did raise snow
totals to be more in line with what the mesoscale (4km NAM, RAP,
HRRR) models were indicating. In general this gives storm
totals of 10-18 inches east of I-81...with local amounts up to 2
feet in the Catskill mountains.

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Plane was trying to land at Dulles and sent out this message via PIREP: 

IAD UUA /OV KIAD/TM 1238/FL040/TP CRJ2/TB MOD-SEV/RM VERY BUMPY ON DESCENT. PRETTY MUCH EVERY ONE ON THE PLANE THREW UP. PILOTS WERE ON THE VERGE OF THROWING UP. AWC-WEB 

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35 minutes ago, clarks green snow said:

and particularly intense bands could
periodically produce snowfall rates of 2-3"/hr. An intense area
of mid level frontogenetical forcing will allow a deformation
band of heavy snow to remain in place through much of the day
from Syracuse--Binghamton--Scranton and points east. Temperatures
will hold steady or even fall a few degrees through the
day...mainly 25-30F in the higher elevations and 28-33F in the
valleys. Snowfall rates begin to decrease after about 4 pm...but
snow showers and periods of light snow will persist into the
evening hours. Another aspect of this powerful storm system will
be the increasing winds. Winds shift out of the north-northwest
by mid to late morning....increase to 20-30 mph, with gusts
40-50 mph during the afternoon and early evening hours. This
will create areas of significant blow/drifting snow...with near
blizzard conditions possible at times over the higher terrain
today. Scattered power outages will also be a problem as the
initial snow is heavy/wet and will cling to the trees. Left
winter storm warnings in place as is for now. Did raise snow
totals to be more in line with what the mesoscale (4km NAM, RAP,
HRRR) models were indicating. In general this gives storm
totals of 10-18 inches east of I-81...with local amounts up to 2
feet in the Catskill mountains.

I'll bet someone up in the Catskills cracks 30" out of this with the tremendous moisture fetch coming off the Atlantic crashing right into those mountains. 

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