Central PA - March 2018

[canderson]

Power outages popping up and increasing all over the place. 

[CarlislePaWx]

Pretty sure the winds are supposed to continue to gradually pick up in intensity through this afternoon.  My p-n-c forecast had the highest gusts at 55mph not until this evening.

My peak wind gust so far has been 36mph with multiple gusts near 30mph.  Sustained has been varying between 10 and 20, but I think that will increase this afternoon as well as the storm deepens offshore.  As for snow I picked up a very light coating before dawn which has already melted with a temp of 36 right now.  Also, picked up a quick inch of rain last evening between 7pm and midnight.  The creek is rising yet again.

>>Edit>>>Just took a look at lastest HRRR and it has the peak winds between now and 3 o'clock this afternoon with a slow but steady decrease thereafter with winds only in the 10-15mph range by this evening.

[MAG5035]

15 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Enjoy.  This is for Tug Hill, but I'd think this event would be fun for them.  

Thank God for snowcams.....

http://www.northernchateau.com/northernchateau.htm

Click on Boonville.....

so jealous

NE PA is getting it pretty good too, the 511 cam on I-81 near the NY border looks pretty rough. 

[canderson]

13 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Pretty sure the winds are supposed to continue to gradually pick up in intensity through this afternoon.  My p-n-c forecast had the highest gusts at 55mph not until this evening.

My peak wind gust so far has been 36mph with multiple gusts near 30mph.  Sustained has been varying between 10 and 20, but I think that will increase this afternoon as well as the storm deepens offshore.  As for snow I picked up a very light coating before dawn which has already melted with a temp of 36 right now.  Also, picked up a quick inch of rain last evening between 7pm and midnight.  The creek is rising yet again.

>>Edit>>>Just took a look at lastest HRRR and it has the peak winds between now and 3 o'clock this afternoon with a slow but steady decrease thereafter with winds only in the 10-15mph range by this evening.

Interesting, MDT has had multiple gusts above 40 already. Hopefully the HRRR is correct and it gets a bit less gusty after sunset. Nightime wind gusts after 12 hours of them on saturated soil is not a calming thing if you live with trees nearby.

[canderson]

I've learned something today. Clear skies allow better mixing to bring winds to the surface. I never thought about that before but it does make sense. So if it clears out, look out. 

[pasnownut]

22 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

NE PA is getting it pretty good too, the 511 cam on I-81 near the NY border looks pretty rough. 

Yeah Mt Pocono webcam looks rather snowbombtastic..

 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

I've learned something today. Clear skies allow better mixing to bring winds to the surface. I never thought about that before but it does make sense. So if it clears out, look out. 

Yeah...wind picked up considerably down here pretty much as soon as the precip stopped and the skies brightened. She's rocking and rolling out there now. 

[pasnownut]

This eveny by and large.......

really 

 

BLOWS!!

 

[canderson]

MDT is absolutely rocking. 31 sustained for at least 10 straight minutes and gusts to 45+ every minute or so. 

[Superstorm]

I've learned something today. Clear skies allow better mixing to bring winds to the surface. I never thought about that before but it does make sense. So if it clears out, look out. 

So does intense precipitation. Accident near mile marker 317 PA Tpk. Heavy snow.


.

[CarlislePaWx]

2 Gusts to 40+ in the past 30 minutes.  First one 39.6mph around 12:35 and second one 42.3mph at 12:42.  Speaking of 40, that also happens to be my current temperature.

[canderson]

62,830 current PPL outages. Damn!

[sauss06]

Somewhere in the Baltimore area a tree toppled and landed on a female, she is DOA

[sauss06]

my company currently handling multiple calls, including one now w/ tree into a house with a victim 

[Itstrainingtime]

Philly is getting crushed by snow...

[canderson]

1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

my company currently handling multiple calls, including one now w/ tree into a house with a victim 

Live wires down along 5th street in midtown. Hopefully the victim is OK ... :/

[MAG5035]

Glad I took my snow pic first thing this morning, because a pretty good majority of it melted away. Probably the stronger sun angle working but deck hasn't melted off all that much so the unfrozen ground probably had a pretty good hand too. Winds have been occasionally of the advisory variety but nothing crazy. 

[canderson]

MDT has had at least one gust reaching 60 mph this afternoon. 

Take a look at the observation winds - it's crazy: http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMDT.html 

[canderson]

Winds slowly easing to less insane rates, gusts in mid 30s only lately. 

Lots of destruction around here. Trees, fences, roofs, shingles in shambles all over.

[MAG5035]

Looks like Cobleskill, NY (west of Albany) the winner in the PNS department... trained spotter report of 39.3". Cobleskill is only listed at 886' in elevation too. Multiple 30"+ reports within Albany's PNS statement. We haven't had many legit nor-easters this season.. but the two we've had have both been epic. The early January bomb was unblocked and moved rapidly making for a hard hit but only more typical moderate-heavier amounts. This bomb was blocked and those big time totals are the results of that. Both largely missed snow opportunities for the majority of our region. NE PA did end up with a pretty good hit. 

[heavy_wx]

5 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Looks like Cobleskill, NY (west of Albany) the winner in the PNS department... trained spotter report of 39.3". Cobleskill is only listed at 886' in elevation too. Multiple 30"+ reports within Albany's PNS statement. We haven't had many legit nor-easters this season.. but the two we've had have both been epic. The early January bomb was unblocked and moved rapidly making for a hard hit but only more typical moderate-heavier amounts. This bomb was blocked and those big time totals are the results of that. Both largely missed snow opportunities for the majority of our region. NE PA did end up with a pretty good hit. 

That area of the northern Catskills usually does well with these types of events with low-level upslope flow and a quasi-stationary maximum in mid-level frontogenesis NW of the low pressure center.

I'm driving back to Albany today and might go through that area to take some pictures.

[Voyager]

I kind of feel sorry for Williamsport. I detoured south on US-15 to I-180 to I-80 to get back to Pittston from Buffalo as I wasn't playing in Binghamton with going across NY-17 and then down I-81 (a 9 hour parking lot if I'd have gone that way). When I got down to Billtown, there was NO SNOW ON THE GROUND...at all. I couldn't believe it. Bare, brown ground all the way from there to Bloomsburg before I got back into the snow.

[canderson]

Tuesday looks interesting but complicated. Anyone smarter than me have any thoughts? 

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, canderson said:

Tuesday looks interesting but complicated. Anyone smarter than me have any thoughts? 

Im not smart but I have an opinion. 

We need NAO block to keep pushing the primary LP south and not through the lakes. This could help in a better transfer to coast (think Miller B ) as well as less warming of mid levels prior to transfer. Look at 500’s and you get excited but look at 700/850’s and that should explain my thoughts. I’ve not looked since last night but in general that’s whats been going wrong for Tuesday. We need to score soon. Running outta time   

[Blizzard of 93]

52 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Im not smart but I have an opinion. 

We need NAO block to keep pushing the primary LP south and not through the lakes. This could help in a better transfer to coast (think Miller B ) as well as less warming of mid levels prior to transfer. Look at 500’s and you get excited but look at 700/850’s and that should explain my thoughts. I’ve not looked since last night but in general that’s whats been going wrong for Tuesday. We need to score soon. Running outta time   

The GEFS & Canadian at 12z today put us in the game for snow by Wednesday. It is a complicated set up, but like you said,we need the block to push the system a little more south, & then we could be in business.

I like our chances for this week with the block now established. The block arrived about 1 day too late for the storm yesterday, but still hit about 100 miles away from the LSV. 

While we have the blocking, we should have the snow chance this week & also around the 12 th. 

[Superstorm]

Next week is getting better and better.

And the one after it could be “the big one baby”.


.

[Voyager]

Jeez...when will it end??? I really hate back loaded winters.

[MAG5035]

2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Im not smart but I have an opinion. 

We need NAO block to keep pushing the primary LP south and not through the lakes. This could help in a better transfer to coast (think Miller B ) as well as less warming of mid levels prior to transfer. Look at 500’s and you get excited but look at 700/850’s and that should explain my thoughts. I’ve not looked since last night but in general that’s whats been going wrong for Tuesday. We need to score soon. Running outta time   

We need more amplification in the western ridge. There's a bit of one for this next system but not a lot. The setup is workable though, the primary system that heads up into the upper midwest stacks (matures, occludes, etc) so the warm air push is mitigated. It pushes east and then pops a coastal system as another piece of energy drops in straight from the north. 500mb more amplified (a more robust closed 500mb low) on the GFS than the Euro and as such the GFS looked a bit better for our region overall as the Euro made the coastal into more of a New England special (and a pretty big one at that). Both did still put snowfall in the area though. Throwing in the Canadian, that one looked good as well, probably better than the GFS/Euro. At any rate, the inverted trough type setup between the remnants of the parent low and the new coastal makes some prospect of snow is fairly likely. Coastal formation initiates near the Delmarva, so that's not too bad either. We'll see what we can do... I'm not too worried about model portrayed precip coverage over our area just yet. 

I'm kinda more excited about the prospects of the possible system after that, even though the individual models today aren't really showing anything ideal in the local area (GFS underneath, Euro cuts). We finally build a strong ridge in the west by this point and that coupled with the remaining blocking via the NAO should force whatever's next underneath.  The next 7-10 days certainly do look intriguing. 

[Voyager]

32 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

The next 7-10 days certainly do look intriguing. 

Perfect time for me to do another California produce run. If I can get out of here on the 6th, I'll be gone until the 19th. I might catch a bit of the first one, but I'd likely be out west somewhere for the second one...

[Blizzard of 93]

26 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

We need more amplification in the western ridge. There's a bit of one for this next system but not a lot. The setup is workable though, the primary system that heads up into the upper midwest stacks (matures, occludes, etc) so the warm air push is mitigated. It pushes east and then pops a coastal system as another piece of energy drops in straight from the north. 500mb more amplified (a more robust closed 500mb low) on the GFS than the Euro and as such the GFS looked a bit better for our region overall as the Euro made the coastal into more of a New England special (and a pretty big one at that). Both did still put snowfall in the area though. Throwing in the Canadian, that one looked good as well, probably better than the GFS/Euro. At any rate, the inverted trough type setup between the remnants of the parent low and the new coastal makes some prospect of snow is fairly likely. Coastal formation initiates near the Delmarva, so that's not too bad either. We'll see what we can do... I'm not too worried about model portrayed precip coverage over our area just yet. 

I'm kinda more excited about the prospects of the possible system after that, even though the individual models today aren't really showing anything ideal in the local area (GFS underneath, Euro cuts). We finally build a strong ridge in the west by this point and that coupled with the remaining blocking via the NAO should force whatever's next underneath.  The next 7-10 days certainly do look intriguing. 

The 12z EPS today was the best run in a long time. It has around 3 to 4 inches of snow for most of us by this Wednesday with the first storm. Then the mean snow jumps to 6 to 8 inches for most of us by the middle of the following week.

Overall, the best news is that around 40 of the 50 EPS ensemble members show at least a few inches of snow for us by the middle of next week. There are some very good hits mixed in, but most ensemble members show we have a legit chance at 2 snow events while we have this blocking.