CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 I certainly expected ORH to get more. Wrong about that one. I sort of had Feb 2010 in my mind when they pounded paste with 950 temps near -0.5C. Just too much warm air wrapped in from the NE. Thanks Dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: I can't credit anyone who doesn't look at a model How do you know he hasn’t looked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 This was a spectacular fail for the euro... last nights run was hilariously wrong. And the runs prior weren’t good either. Short term models FTL as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I certainly expected ORH to get more. Wrong about that one. I sort of had Feb 2010 in my mind when they pounded paste with 950 temps near -0.5C. Just too much warm air wrapped in from the NE. Thanks Dryslot. Ha ha. Maybe it was coin slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Finally starting to stick now. Cars and mulch getting a covering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Google Iran 1972 Blizzard if you want something crazy. Ha, I've read about that event. It's so out there it's almost hard to believe. I mean, what's the return period on something like that? 1 in 10,000 years? 100,000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, weathafella said: How do you know he hasn’t looked? It was pretty obvious from his several days of posts coming into the forums and just repeating 'it's going to rain' Despite the models struggling, apparently he is a savant and better then our red tag mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I certainly expected ORH to get more. Wrong about that one. I sort of had Feb 2010 in my mind when they pounded paste with 950 temps near -0.5C. Just too much warm air wrapped in from the NE. Thanks Dryslot. Can always count on dryslot to throw an occasional turd in the punchbowl from the northeast...like the retrocane too in feb 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: This was a spectacular fail for the euro... last nights run was hilariously wrong. And the runs prior weren’t good either. Short term models FTL as well. The problem is that the model temps were still mild. Those temps did not go below 34F. So blame the algorithm I think, not the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Hitman said: Roofs collapsing. Dogs living with cats. Real biblical stuff. Did they cross the streams too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The problem is that the model temps were still mild. Those temps did not go below 34F. So blame the algorithm I think, not the model. Still may have been a little too cold at 925. Esp on the 00z run. I think yesterday's 12z run was prob the best thermally at 925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The problem is that the model temps were still mild. Those temps did not go below 34F. So blame the algorithm I think, not the model. Yeah... I mean I guess you are right. I still don’t think it’s been good this winter. That marginal storm 2 weekends ago it was bad too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Still may have been a little too cold at 925. Esp on the 00z run. I think yesterday's 12z run was prob the best thermally at 925. Yeah it may have been. I guess when you see that 925 image showing only banded areas sneaking below -1C and even areas in NH above 0C..it certainly shows a crap airmass. Still...I thought ORH would get a lot more than a coating. Maybe they can squeeze out an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 I'm not really sure it's fair to accuse any one or source as busting in this mess. When you have like 8 options on the table each one with equal probability of happening you can't really be blamed for having to pick one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Still may have been a little too cold at 925. Esp on the 00z run. I think yesterday's 12z run was prob the best thermally at 925. I wonder if the relatively *****y snow growth played a role too? This is very low level stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Just got back home after a ride from he'll. Trees down everywhere. It's snowing so that's nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Just now, CT Rain said: I wonder if the relatively *****y snow growth played a role too? This is very low level stuff. I did notice we didn't have a huge deep lift signal into the DGZ. At least around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not really sure it's fair to accuse any one or source as busting in this mess. When you have like 8 options on the table each one with equal probability of happening you can't really be blamed for having to pick one The uncertainty was conveyed pretty well by most I felt like. I remember saying I thought ORH could get 2" or 20" a couple days ago. They might not make 2" lol. But we did keep hammering how close it was. We've seen these things tip either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: I wonder if the relatively *****y snow growth played a role too? This is very low level stuff. I think that's what killed us here. The flakes were crap and we never really had excellent 700 fronto over us. Bufkit soundings from this morning showed solid omega but well below the SGZ and that was verified by the great 850 fronto we had. I'm still pissed over this. Just over 2''...pfftttttt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Well Jesus… Where was the DGZ then. We had like four hours of heavy rain with giant raindrops and cat paw fragments where was that coming from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I wonder if the relatively *****y snow growth played a role too? This is very low level stuff. Yeah I mentioned that earlier. The cross hair sig wasn't there as lift was centered a bit below the DGZ. The better dendrites take more energy melt esp since you will get almost 100% ice crystal formation versus maybe 80-90% in a crappier profile. So the latent cooling is less without the better snow growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 By some miracle I have power back on. Top 3 wind event here. Huge huge bust on my snow prediction but that's how it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well Jesus… Where was the DGZ then. We had like four hours of heavy rain with giant raindrops and cat paw fragments where was that coming from Collision/Coalescence too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 I just lost power. I assume it will be out for a while. **** **** and all the other things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 winds still ripping here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Yeah winds kind of ramped up again. Maybe some better mixing with the colder air moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 BOX just cancelled all the winter weather advisories that were remaining. They have given up on the snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Maybe the Euro counted the melt layer as snow I would have had 10 easy. 6 hrs under melted snow radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 Ripping pretty good right now. Too bad this is on borrowed time. What could have been if we mustered a flip around 21-22z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2018 Share Posted March 3, 2018 oh well I'm going to bed. I've had enough of this. Snows for 7+ hours and all that be be mustered up is a little over 2''. That's the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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