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Blizzard 2018 Take II: The Firehose


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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I certainly expected ORH to get more. Wrong about that one. I sort of had Feb 2010 in my mind when they pounded paste with 950 temps near -0.5C.  Just too much warm air wrapped in from the NE. Thanks Dryslot.

Ha ha. Maybe it was coin slot 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I certainly expected ORH to get more. Wrong about that one. I sort of had Feb 2010 in my mind when they pounded paste with 950 temps near -0.5C.  Just too much warm air wrapped in from the NE. Thanks Dryslot.

Can always count on dryslot to throw an occasional turd in the punchbowl from the northeast...like the retrocane too in feb 2010. 

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This was a spectacular fail for the euro... last nights run was hilariously wrong. And the runs prior weren’t good either.

Short term models FTL as well.

The problem is that the model temps were still mild. Those temps did not go below 34F. So blame the algorithm I think, not the model.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The problem is that the model temps were still mild. Those temps did not go below 34F. So blame the algorithm I think, not the model.

Still may have been a little too cold at 925. Esp on the 00z run. I think yesterday's 12z run was prob the best thermally at 925. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still may have been a little too cold at 925. Esp on the 00z run. I think yesterday's 12z run was prob the best thermally at 925. 

Yeah it may have been. I guess when you see that 925 image showing only banded areas sneaking below -1C and even areas in NH above 0C..it certainly shows a crap airmass. Still...I thought ORH would get a lot more than a coating. Maybe they can squeeze out an inch or so.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still may have been a little too cold at 925. Esp on the 00z run. I think yesterday's 12z run was prob the best thermally at 925. 

I wonder if the relatively *****y snow growth played a role too? This is very low level stuff. 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 I'm not really sure it's fair to accuse any one or source as busting in this mess. When you have like 8 options on the table each one with equal probability of happening you can't really be blamed for having to pick one 

The uncertainty was conveyed pretty well by most I felt like. I remember saying I thought ORH could get 2" or 20" a couple days ago. They might not make 2" lol. But we did keep hammering how close it was. We've seen these things tip either direction. 

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I wonder if the relatively *****y snow growth played a role too? This is very low level stuff. 

I think that's what killed us here. The flakes were crap and we never really had excellent 700 fronto over us. Bufkit soundings from this morning showed solid omega but well below the SGZ and that was verified by the great 850 fronto we had. I'm still pissed over this. Just over 2''...pfftttttt

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2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I wonder if the relatively *****y snow growth played a role too? This is very low level stuff. 

Yeah I mentioned that earlier. The cross hair sig wasn't there as lift was centered a bit below the DGZ. The better dendrites take more energy melt esp since you will get almost 100% ice crystal formation versus maybe 80-90% in a crappier profile. So the latent cooling is less without the better snow growth. 

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