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WeatherFeen2000

-NAO Coastal Bomb March 1-3, 2018 Disco

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6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nam has had a good season. The mesoscale models will do great in these setups.

The blocking will not let the primary go further north. A secondary should form in SNJ or just south of there.

So the RGEM will do great too ?

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13 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

How did the last storm work out for you ? I have gotten more storms this year than you have smarty pants.

Anyway Rgem at 54 hours is in its long range so grain of salt.

Like I said , pattern supports snow here.

it worked out good - I said 3 -6 across the immediate metro

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3 minutes ago, BlueDXer75 said:

The bickering in this forum gets old.  It’s just weather! Grow up a little bit.

since when is debating bickering ? nothing offensive has been said

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4 minutes ago, BlueDXer75 said:

The bickering in this forum gets old.  It’s just weather! Grow up a little bit.

It’s as if what someone posts has ANY impact on what the weather will do.

have fun with it!

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1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

since when is debating bickering ? nothing offensive has been said

When it turns from debating the facts and opinions to discussing people. Enough.

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19 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

LOL 

Euro and Nam show the similiar situation but different amounts. Keep dismissing the snow because the NWS says so.

Euro and NAM combo has shown to be miles ahead of GFS when taken together, and it's not just us talking about it, it's being mentioned on TV too.

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15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

with WPC at 5 -10 % chance for over 1 inch in the immediate NYC metro I feel confident now that this will be 80 % rain with a mix/changeover the last 20 % with warm surface that amounts to less then 1 inch - WPC - Mt. Holly - Upton - I am going with like I said earlier if for some strange reason they change their outlook later tonight/tomorrow I will agree with them - nobody here except maybe a MET or 2 have the forecasting skills they do .

I’m in your camp obviously, but I do think their odds are way conservative. I would put that up at 25-30% at this lead time. I think a couple slushy colder surfaces inches are possible even at the coast. I remember April 1 97 vividly and that’s exactly what it was on the island. We had about 2” of slop that stuck to everything like paste. (Other then paved surfaces) if I had to give a serious forecast right now for the city and the island that’s what I would go with. 

I’m going to write a song about Mt. Pocono the snow epicenter of the north east!!!

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as of now it looks like  the NAM with its outrageous snow totals will be the worst model for this storm unless it comes into line with the more accurate models at 0Z .
We don't know who is accurate until after the storm. The NAM has scored a few coups this year. Being honest, I look at it like this; GFS has no clue, the resolution alone precludes it with this storm. The Euro has a better resolution, but it's progressive and I just do not buy this given the NAO and even the SE Ridge. The AO is plummeting to - 5 and though I do not see the Cold spilling in, this storm could easily pull from the upper atmosphere and hundreds of miles from the north, for cold air. So that leaves us with mesoscale models to resolve the intense vorticities and dynamics of this storm.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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5 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m in your camp obviously, but I do think their odds are way conservative. I would put that up at 25-30% at this lead time. I think a couple slushy colder surfaces inches are possible even at the coast. I remember April 1 97 vividly and that’s exactly what it was on the island. We had about 2” of slop that stuck to everything like paste. (Other then paved surfaces) if I had to give a serious forecast right now for the city and the island that’s what I would go with. 

I’m going to write a song about Mt. Pocono the snow epicenter of the north east!!!

Yeah it's not like the WPC has some secret model they dont show us.  We have brains and can think independently.  If it doesn't work out so what- they've been wrong enough times before too.  I wouldn't mind seeing 1-3 inches of snow on Friday.

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6 minutes ago, friedmators said:

I wouldn’t put it past the NAM to show a more extreme solution at 0z. It’s been tightening up the closure at H5 for like 5 runs @ 48.


.

The NAM still doesn't get enough respect even though it has beaten the other models numerous times when dealing with very strong coastal systems that are rapidly strengthening.  We had this same conversation back on Jan 4, and before that in Jan 2016.

 

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7 minutes ago, friedmators said:

I wouldn’t put it past the NAM to show a more extreme solution at 0z. It’s been tightening up the closure at H5 for like 5 runs @ 48.


.

more extreme then then 18Z ? I expect the opposite either at 0Z or 12Z tomorrow

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8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

more extreme then then 18Z ? I expect the opposite either at 0Z or 12Z tomorrow

The reason it loses respect is because of the outrageous solutions it comes up with like the 18Z run … in fact we have come to expect it here - many people say to divide the snow totals it comes up with - how many times have we heard that here ?

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46 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

with WPC at 5 -10 % chance for over 1 inch in the immediate NYC metro I feel confident now that this will be 80 % rain with a mix/changeover the last 20 % with warm surface that amounts to less then 1 inch - WPC - Mt. Holly - Upton - I am going with like I said earlier if for some strange reason they change their outlook later tonight/tomorrow I will agree with them - nobody here except maybe a MET or 2 have the forecasting skills they do .

No one in the media I have heard is talking about any significant snow for us. Period. There are mentions of tides and wind. Hate it but that's the fact.

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The reason it loses respect is because of the outrageous solutions it comes up with like the 18Z run … in fact we have come to expect it here - many people say to divide the snow totals it comes up with - how many times have we heard that here ?

I’ll never forgive it for not letting go of the blizzard idea in 2016 when we got 3” of sleet. The low was so tucked. Though I think it scored a coup with our blizzard in 2015.


.

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1 minute ago, friedmators said:


I’ll never forgive it for not letting go of the blizzard idea in 2016 when we got 3” of sleet. The low was so tucked. Though I think it scored a coup with our blizzard in 2015.


.

It scored the coup for the January 2016 blizzard IIRC.

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2 minutes ago, friedmators said:


I’ll never forgive it for not letting go of the blizzard idea in 2016 when we got 3” of sleet. The low was so tucked. Though I think it scored a coup with our blizzard in 2015.


.

I think you mean 2016 and 2017.....the 2015 blizzard was also a bust for us, 7 inches when 2 feet were predicted

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2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

No one in the media I have heard is talking about any significant snow for us. Period. There are mentions of tides and wind. Hate it but that's the fact.

Except for Lee Goldberg. 

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1 minute ago, riverrat said:

Except for Lee Goldberg. 

It’s a really tough forecast. If the CCB blossoms and crashes everyone over to snow like the NAM has and to lesser extent the Euro, there could be warning amounts near the city. If not and it stays warmer, there’s little accumulation. Best call is to mention “snow possible” and wait until tomorrow to fine tune amounts. I’m intrigued but have no idea how this will shake out given how fickle this can be. The snow could definitely underproduce west of the upper low too if the dynamics don’t work out. 

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54 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m in your camp obviously, but I do think their odds are way conservative. I would put that up at 25-30% at this lead time. I think a couple slushy colder surfaces inches are possible even at the coast. I remember April 1 97 vividly and that’s exactly what it was on the island. We had about 2” of slop that stuck to everything like paste. (Other then paved surfaces) if I had to give a serious forecast right now for the city and the island that’s what I would go with. 

I’m going to write a song about Mt. Pocono the snow epicenter of the north east!!!

We got 10” from that storm in Suffolk county...

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Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

4/1/97? The Boston blue bomb? I thought the whole island did poorly in that one. 

The entire metro mostly did because of a dry slot.  He may have thought of 4/10/96

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Hi-res RGEM joining the party is huge for me personally. LOVED the way it handled the January Blizzard, undedone, but had the right idea pretty much all the way.

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34 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The entire metro mostly did because of a dry slot.  He may have thought of 4/10/96

I wasa youngster away for the break in Delaware county for the April fools. Route 17 was shut down, needless to say I missed school in Queens. Epic storm there. I can remember that more vividly than 96, the 2 main reasons I weenie out.

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2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Hi-res RGEM joining the party is huge for me personally. LOVED the way it handled the January Blizzard, undedone, but had the right idea pretty much all the way.

All about where the 500 low closes off and where it tracks. On models like the NAM it closes off in a great spot to nail almost all of us. We don’t want it to be too progressive or close off too late. 

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9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

I wasa youngster away for the break in Delaware county for the April fools. Route 17 was **** down, needless to say I missed school in Queens. Epic storm there. I can remember that more vividly than 96, the 2 main reasons I weenie out.

Storm was a big dud in NJ. We were wondering where all this snow was. As I went north on the GSP toward Kean U i started seeing snow on the grass.....must have been a sharp cutoff. We'd had our fill of snow by then though.

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