ag3 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: I wasn't comparing it to last nights Euro run, just the UKMET. In any event, I expect a correction back to the West, this is your typical windshield washer scenario. The strong block shouldn't allow the storm to gain as much latitude as shown today on most of the 12z guidance. It could shift even further east as well. The primary is feeling the block and could respond further south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, Animal said: Lots of mixed opinions on this euro run. This Euro run was better for NYC and LI and cutback some on the interior. What he's not telling you is that even with the cutback, it's still a great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, ag3 said: Yes it is. Euro cut back majorly for interior precip. Keeps the CCB along NJ, LI and SNE. Its a general 1-1.5" of precip throughout the region. Cut back everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, snywx said: Its a general 1-1.5" of precip throughout the region. Cut back everywhere It cut back on the cold part of the storm for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 another day another round of solutions--might come down to now cast ala Xmas 2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, ag3 said: It could shift even further east as well. The primary is feeling the block and could respond further south and east. That 500mb low could track over Virginia and it wouldn't matter as long as it closes off before it reaches water. Once off the coast, it's tough to get that CCB far enough West for NYC and points West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Exactly. This looks more like a typical noreaster with 1-2 inches of rain and minor to moderate coastal flooding due to the full moon. YAWN Nice call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 1 minute ago, ag3 said: It cut back on the cold part of the storm for the interior. It cut back for the coast as well. Again, I am not focusing on QPF, that's the most useless aspect of any model. Really it's just a matter of how progressive this ends up being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 To me it’s becoming clearer that Boston to ORH will get crushed, probably over a foot in that area, maybe 18”. That probably carries west into NY State and down to the Catskills. The question is how much heavier precip pivots south from there once the upper air low bombs and we can cool down to the coast. It’s starting to look very 4/1/97 in evolution. Hopefully the CCB can deliver for a while for most of us this time. The Euro’s a step in the right direction but I’d still be very hesitant to think more than 2-4” near the city. Northern areas though especially elevated can really clean up since they won’t need the cold air help the coast does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: another day another round of solutions--might come down to now cast ala Xmas 2002 Its called a trend towards understanding mid level evaporative cooling along with track and intensity The CCB has been hinted at for 3 days , you guys kept looking for the 0 line 300 miles west of you when it was only 5k feet above you all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: That 500mb low could track over Virginia and it wouldn't matter as long as it closes off before it reaches water. Once off the coast, it's tough to get that CCB far enough West for NYC and points West. I expect watches to go up soon for Sussex, W Passaic, Orange counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, snywx said: I expect watches to go up soon for Sussex, W Passaic, Orange counties. Honestly probably not, confidence has to be very low right now on warning criteria being reached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Nice call No one gets more than a couple of inches of rain in this subforum...white rain doesn't count! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: To me it’s becoming clearer that Boston to ORH will get crushed, probably over a foot in that area, maybe 18”. That probably carries west into NY State and down to the Catskills. The question is how much heavier precip pivots south from there once the upper air low bombs and we can cool down to the coast. It’s starting to look very 4/1/97 in evolution. Hopefully the CCB can deliver for a while for most of us this time. The Euro’s a step in the right direction but I’d still be very hesitant to think more than 2-4” near the city. Northern areas though especially elevated can really clean up since they won’t need the cold air help the coast does. Looks like a firehose aimed right at Boston on the euro. The ORH hills will do well for sure with their elevation. - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: To me it’s becoming clearer that Boston to ORH will get crushed, probably over a foot in that area, maybe 18”. That probably carries west into NY State and down to the Catskills. The question is how much heavier precip pivots south from there once the upper air low bombs and we can cool down to the coast. It’s starting to look very 4/1/97 in evolution. Hopefully the CCB can deliver for a while for most of us this time. The Euro’s a step in the right direction but I’d still be very hesitant to think more than 2-4” near the city. Northern areas though especially elevated can really clean up since they won’t need the cold air help the coast does. A general 10-20" up here with that one. Should be interesting to see this unfold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Honestly probably not, confidence has to be very low right now on warning criteria being reached. I said watches not warnings... They can always go with an advisory from a watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Looks like a firehose aimed right at Boston. The ORH hills will do well for sure with their elevation. I grew up in those hills. It pains me everytime they jackpot and I am not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just saw the tellies for this upcoming storm. -NAO -AO -Epo That's why the models are trending further east with the primary and weaker and east with the secondary. Also colder trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Looks like a firehose aimed right at Boston. The ORH hills will do well for sure with their elevation. They’ll be head of the table at the feast, NYC will be the yipping chihuahua running around the table asking for someone to throw some scraps. Ahh well, happens. Climo is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Just now, jm1220 said: They’ll be head of the table at the feast, NYC will be the yipping chihuahua running around the table asking for someone to throw some scraps. Ahh well, happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: I grew up in those hills. It pains me everytime they jackpot and I am not there. ORH area is a great spot-they cash in on noreaster's and have elevation and are sufficiently far away from the water...lots of ice there too. I was born there but left at an early age... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 20 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Where is Ulster? He is usually very active during storm mode Animal I said the same thing with the last event he has been noticeably absent,,,,hopefully Ulster is just busy with the new baby and all is well. Now back to our storm !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 If the Euro verifies in MA-there will be alot of downed trees with the wet slop and winds there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: ORH area is a great spot-they cash in on noreaster's and have elevation and are sufficiently far away from the water...lots of ice there too. I was born there but left at an early age... January 1987 was my favorite month there. We had 70 inches in one month. Was epic. The snowpack was the highest I ever saw and probably will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 25 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The Euro would at least be a step toward a 3/7/13 solution where it snows hard enough to stick around the city west of the CCB. That's the best we can hope for. I'm still very skeptical about the snows though, it's definitely warmer aloft this time than similar analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: If the Euro verifies in MA-there will be alot of downed trees with the wet slop and winds there. Absolutely. It would be another 3/7/13 where there was widespread 15”+. And it seems to be sneaking up on most of that area, most forecasts I see have a lot of rain or mix, nothing like what the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Absolutely. It would be another 3/7/13 where there was widespread 15”+. And it seems to be sneaking up on most of that area, most forecasts I see have a lot of rain or mix, nothing like what the models are showing. If the models continue an east trend, there wont be any precip when its cold enough for the far interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That's the best we can hope for. I'm still very skeptical about the snows though, it's definitely warmer aloft this time than similar analogs. My base expectation here is nothing, so I can’t be disappointed with more than that. And besides, I can’t complain since I reached my seasonal average. I never enjoy storms where Boston gets buried and I dryslot or rain, but it is what it is. It’s a Nina, so it was bound to come sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 22 minutes ago, snywx said: I said watches not warnings... They can always go with an advisory from a watch That concept is lost on many who think going from a Watch to an Advisory is getting “downgraded”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: My base expectation here is nothing, so I can’t be disappointed with more than that. And besides, I can’t complain since I reached my seasonal average. I never enjoy storms where Boston gets buried and I dryslot or rain, but it is what it is. It’s a Nina, so it was bound to come sooner or later. There's definitely going to be a strong coastal though with major impacts. Nobody escapes with the AO at -4 (lowest of season) and the lowest NAO in months. There will be surprises and models aren't locked in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.