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-NAO Coastal Bomb March 1-3, 2018 Disco


WeatherFeen2000

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

I wasn't comparing it to last nights Euro run, just the UKMET.

In any event, I expect a correction back to the West, this is your typical windshield washer scenario. The strong block shouldn't allow the storm to gain as much latitude as shown today on most of the 12z guidance.

It could shift even further east as well. The primary is feeling the block and could respond further south and east.

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Just now, ag3 said:

It could shift even further east as well. The primary is feeling the block and could respond further south and east.

That 500mb low could track over Virginia and it wouldn't matter as long as it closes off before it reaches water. Once off the coast, it's tough to get that CCB far enough West for NYC and points West.

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To me it’s becoming clearer that Boston to ORH will get crushed, probably over a foot in that area, maybe 18”. That probably carries west into NY State and down to the Catskills. The question is how much heavier precip pivots south from there once the upper air low bombs and we can cool down to the coast. It’s starting to look very 4/1/97 in evolution. Hopefully the CCB can deliver for a while for most of us this time. The Euro’s a step in the right direction but I’d still be very hesitant to think more than 2-4” near the city. Northern areas though especially elevated can really clean up since they won’t need the cold air help the coast does. 

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

another day another round of solutions--might come down to now cast ala Xmas 2002

 

Its called a trend towards understanding mid level evaporative cooling along with track and intensity 

The CCB has been hinted at for 3 days , you guys kept looking for the 0 line 300 miles west of you when it was only 5k feet above you  all along 

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

To me it’s becoming clearer that Boston to ORH will get crushed, probably over a foot in that area, maybe 18”. That probably carries west into NY State and down to the Catskills. The question is how much heavier precip pivots south from there once the upper air low bombs and we can cool down to the coast. It’s starting to look very 4/1/97 in evolution. Hopefully the CCB can deliver for a while for most of us this time. The Euro’s a step in the right direction but I’d still be very hesitant to think more than 2-4” near the city. Northern areas though especially elevated can really clean up since they won’t need the cold air help the coast does. 

Looks like a firehose aimed right at Boston on the euro.    The ORH hills will do well for sure with their elevation.

-

 

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

To me it’s becoming clearer that Boston to ORH will get crushed, probably over a foot in that area, maybe 18”. That probably carries west into NY State and down to the Catskills. The question is how much heavier precip pivots south from there once the upper air low bombs and we can cool down to the coast. It’s starting to look very 4/1/97 in evolution. Hopefully the CCB can deliver for a while for most of us this time. The Euro’s a step in the right direction but I’d still be very hesitant to think more than 2-4” near the city. Northern areas though especially elevated can really clean up since they won’t need the cold air help the coast does. 

A general 10-20" up here with that one. Should be interesting to see this unfold

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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Looks like a firehose aimed right at Boston.    The ORH hills will do well for sure with their elevation.

They’ll be head of the table at the feast, NYC will be the yipping chihuahua running around the table asking for someone to throw some scraps. Ahh well, happens. Climo is what it is. 

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3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

I grew up in those hills.  It pains me everytime they jackpot and I am not there. 

ORH area is a great spot-they cash in on noreaster's and have elevation and are sufficiently far away from the water...lots of ice there too.  I was born there but left at an early age...

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

ORH area is a great spot-they cash in on noreaster's and have elevation and are sufficiently far away from the water...lots of ice there too.  I was born there but left at an early age...

January 1987 was my favorite month there.  We had 70 inches in one month.  Was epic.  The snowpack was the highest I ever saw and probably will see. 

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

If the Euro verifies in MA-there will be alot of downed trees with the wet slop and winds there.

Absolutely. It would be another 3/7/13 where there was widespread 15”+. And it seems to be sneaking up on most of that area, most forecasts I see have a lot of rain or mix, nothing like what the models are showing. 

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6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Absolutely. It would be another 3/7/13 where there was widespread 15”+. And it seems to be sneaking up on most of that area, most forecasts I see have a lot of rain or mix, nothing like what the models are showing. 

If the models continue an east trend, there wont be any precip when its cold enough for the far interior.

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5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's the best we can hope for. I'm still very skeptical about the snows though, it's definitely warmer aloft this time than similar analogs.

My base expectation here is nothing, so I can’t be disappointed with more than that. And besides, I can’t complain since I reached my seasonal average. I never enjoy storms where Boston gets buried and I dryslot or rain, but it is what it is. It’s a Nina, so it was bound to come sooner or later. 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

My base expectation here is nothing, so I can’t be disappointed with more than that. And besides, I can’t complain since I reached my seasonal average. I never enjoy storms where Boston gets buried and I dryslot or rain, but it is what it is. It’s a Nina, so it was bound to come sooner or later. 

There's definitely going to be a strong coastal though with major impacts. Nobody escapes with the AO at -4 (lowest of season) and the lowest NAO in months.

There will be surprises and models aren't locked in yet.

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