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HoarfrostHubb

February 24/25 Mixed Bag / Moderate Event. CNE NNE centric

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Form BOX

P-type will once again be the issue as models are still struggling with the warm layer. EC continues to remain on the cold side with the 12z NAM as the warmest. GFS/CMC and now 18z NAM are in the middle of the ground and thus trended towards the ensembles guidance. As with the prev forecaster, kept a bit of snow/sleet at the onset, as cold air looks to be deep enough north of the Pike and esp Route 2. In fact with good omega in the snow growth region, could see a few inches of snowfall. Once the mid-level warm front pushes into the region, a transition to more freezing rain event will occur leading to slick travel across the interior. Highest confidence will be across the east slope of the Berkshires and the Worcester Hills as the higher terrain locations will see the coolest surface temps. This is due to warm layer remaining around 800mb. Cannot rule out northern CT and the higher terrain of RI for some wintry weather impacts, but confidence is higher across northern MA. South of the Pike and especially across RI and SE MA conditions look to warm for any wintry weather, but still will have to watch as a change in just a few degrees will impact p-type.

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On second thought...we’re gonna have to watch that H8-75 warm tongue on the NAM to see how it trends. The NAM usually does really well with those, but occasionally it flubs it up too. A lot of the QPF I posted earlier is actually PL or ZR.

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

What's this mean 

3 CT posters...3 posts about 33F rain...   well, duh.

It will prob be 33F rain here, but some guidance has a wintery event.   We had 5 pages for a wave that gave most people 0.5” or less

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7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

3 CT posters...3 posts about 33F rain...   well, duh.

It will prob be 33F rain here, but some guidance has a wintery event.   We had 5 pages for a wave that gave most people 0.5” or less

I meant tonight.. right now . Wow 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea me too. I think he opened the thread saying it would probably only effect 10 people then bitches because nobody is posting.cmon Hunchie 

Dude...why are you posting about tonight’s rain in a thread about Sat night/Sunday?

I thought you were posting that you expecting 33 moderate rain for that event.  

Cmon 

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Yeah this isn't an obs thread for tonight. Use banter/obs for that or make a specific thread for tonight. 

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2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Nothing but rain for you, probably, and probably just a colder rain for me, and maybe some pellets.

But a bit North it could be a nice event

WIll you be Surprised when u run below 32 and see several hours (at least) of frozen crap falling.

Elevation FTW Seems clear in that regard on models

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14 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

WIll you be Surprised when u run below 32 and see several hours (at least) of frozen crap falling.

Elevation FTW Seems clear in that regard on models

I would not be surprised at 

a) all rain

b ).  kitchen sink,  no net gain

c) a sloppy inch or two

b seems the most likely here

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16 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

WIll you be Surprised when u run below 32 and see several hours (at least) of frozen crap falling.

Elevation FTW Seems clear in that regard on models

SWFE so elevation won’t be a huge factor. 

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15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Sleet and cold rain at home that seems to still be freezing on contact due to the cold surface... this morning was down in the mid-teens and cold.  Temps at 33-34F on the old school mercury thermo on the deck.  The sleet has actually made our walkway and driveway passable....gives some grip. 

Warming quickly in the higher elevations.  What was low-20s at 4kft is now upper-20s.  Low level, well mixed zones are mid-30s.  Cold hollows and mid-slope pockets still freezing rain.

Wrong thread you will get your peepee slapped

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38 minutes ago, dendrite said:

SWFE so elevation won’t be a huge factor. 

Elevation may be important for icing in SNE. Pretty steep lapse rate up to about 900mb. Classic elevation icing sounding down here. Usually doesn't matter up your way but down here we see it fairly frequently. 

That said, the total qpf is pretty meh so it won't be a lot of accretion but for travel purposes the icing def may be going on for hours in the hills. 

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Not sure who contributed what in this thread up to this point… But that looks pretty damn icy to me interior Massachusetts north of the pike

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