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HoarfrostHubb

February 24/25 Mixed Bag / Moderate Event. CNE NNE centric

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4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not buying the TT GFS snowmap.   A lot of sleet maybe?

Definitely alot of sleet in there south of Con, but the warm nose aloft was less pronounced on the gfs than the nam

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looks like quite the scalping for many of us Sunday morning .. wouldn't surprise me if the surface to 900 mb layer continued to tick colder leading up this. High pressure is initially in an ok spot but slips to the east pretty quick. Still a solid CAD signal - especially CNE / NNE. 

Too bad the antecedent airmass is garbage. 

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You can see pretty pronounced kinks in the Isobars running right down the spine of the northern apps--even on the GFS Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon. It's a pretty telling sign to me we'll have a significant CAD drain overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. 

This event is also timed with the teleconnection flip of the AO and NAO so there could be larger error (to the warm side) in the CAD as a result.

Mesolow is also showing up now on all guidance, around 0z Monday. Will want to see if we can get that feature to pop a little sooner to preclude any warm air intrusion. 

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15 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

After the number of mixed bag events this winter I would almost prefer plane rain to accumulating sleet that needs to be cleared.

Any frozen is good frozen.

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Euro looks like it starts as snow/sleet down into N MA. Tough to tell in between levels, but its pretty chilly. Im guessing theres a warm layer between 700-850, but it seems to put on the brakes atleast for a while somewhere in S NH.

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Has anyone looked into prospect of OES from this? Looks like a prolonged easterly fetch...

Euro appears to be hinting at some enhancement along the immediate coast, with much higher qpf amounts from Portland ME down to South Coast of MA, which makes me think that's related to ocean enhancement...

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24 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

12z Euro says Central NH getting 8-12" from this...

Lake region jack on the 12z Euro, Looks like 1.1" plus qpf but .4" of that falls tonight into tomorrow.

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Looks like garbage for most of SNE. Could see some brief sleet/snow in N MA and maybe need to watch for some marginal prolonged ice in N ORH county over to N Berks. 

But yeah, this could have been a good event for a huge chunk of the forum if the antecedent airmass didn't suck. It does look promising for NH up into ME

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