February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[dryslot]

Swiss icy knife.

[Damage In Tolland]

No EPS posts . No good cheer 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No EPS posts . No good cheer 

I looked, you want to know what they had?

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I looked, you want to know what they had?

I saw. Tons of spread , including shunts 

[SnowHole413]

 I don’t about you guys but this time just feels different, my gut feeling is in the next 3-4 days models will show a major east coast snowstorm. They all seem to have a major storm early March but can’t seem to put all the pieces together, but run after run after run it is still there. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Powderboy413 said:

 I don’t about you guys but this time just feels different, my gut feeling is in the next 3-4 days models will show a major east coast snowstorm. They all seem to have a major storm early March but can’t seem to put all the pieces together, but run after run after run it is still there. 

Given your name and avatar, I am shocked you feel that way.

[dryslot]

Congrats BWI.

[moneypitmike]

Right where we want it.  I’m flying into pwm Friday morning.  Stay clear until then.

[wx2fish]

Nam looks like a decent period of sleet at the start Sunday. Those surface temps are awful chilly once is flips. Hours of 33F at MHT and ORH

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Congrats BWI.

I love how you keep saying this.....the reverse pysch in full affect.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I love how you keep saying this.....the reverse pysch in full affect.

I guess you didn't see the 0z EPS.............lol

[Damage In Tolland]

The shunt is likely 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, dryslot said:

I guess you didn't see the 0z EPS.............lol

I did. looked nothing like 12z op which is a shame but we haz a few days to turn it around.

[dryslot]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I did. looked nothing like 12z op which is a shame but we haz a few days to turn it around.

One thing i can say its not going to whiff to the north, I've paid good money to see this movie before only to be disappointed with the ending.

[WintersComing]

Days and days of snow....

[CoastalWx]

Sunday morning is looking more interesting north of the pike into SNH. That is a real cold layer in the 950-900 layer. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Sell the shunt. That was due to thermal profiles. 

I think the idea of an occlusion south of us is more likely than a shunt.

CT will probably be in a good spot....shocking, I know.

This is why I like the RNA....have the thing get going above the 40th parallel, and there is less that can go wrong regarding track, and rate of maturation.

[Hoth]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the idea of an occlusion south of us is more likely than a shunt.

CT will probably be in a good spot....shocking, I know.

This is why I like the RNA....have the thing get going above the 40th parallel, and there is less that can go wrong regarding track, and rate of maturation.

I approve this message. Really interesting period coming up. Hoping for a crawling monster before we move into sping.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Hoth said:

I approve this message. Really interesting period coming up. Hoping for a crawling monster before we move into sping.

Miller B of bust.

[Hoth]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Miller B of bust.

I fully expect to see some great model porn over the next week. Whether we ultimately get blue balled or not, that's another matter altogether.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

We should start seeing somekind of trends over the weekend imo. blocking episodes usually feature ‘less’ uncertainty but if it is Miller B type stuff, that still has decent spread even outside of 72hrs. And we Probably take gfs with grain of salt until maybe inside 24hrs.

[Ginx snewx]

Pattern 11 to 15 week exactly matches 3/13

[STILL N OF PIKE]

If we see a crawling firehose,i will travel to 1k' plus and north/ west (if needed)

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We should start seeing somekind of trends over the weekend imo. blocking episodes usually feature ‘less’ uncertainty but if it is Miller B type stuff, that still has decent spread even outside of 72hrs. And we Probably take gfs with grain of salt until maybe inside 24hrs.

I will be stunned if we don't come out of this with an event having deposited at least a solid 1' in general.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

We are already seeing model trends the last 24 hours...moving towards a south of New England and ultimately south of NYC . Signals are there unfortunately 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

The bigger and more prolonged the block, the easier models latch on to a 200hr storm. Ohh Sandy

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We are already seeing model trends the last 24 hours...moving towards a south of New England and ultimately south of NYC . Signals are there unfortunately 

You have been stationed in left field the vast majority of this winter.

None of that is true...zero.

Its possible it could miss, but there are no definitive trends at present...its one week plus out.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

The teleconnections look Beautiful.

Deeply negative AO AND NAO. Rising PNA. Falling EPO. MJO going through phases 1 and 2.

I want to see some results on the models! Also, hearing about the NAO linking up with the eastern ridge creating a disaster for snow. What does this mean and wouldn't the negative AO squash such an event?

 

Mentioned this yesterday myself...although I didn't get into the snow part - not sure how that correlation is assumed...

The best window of opportunity for a significant winter impact scenario is probably Wednesday through next weekend, after which ... that ridge/blocking node associated with the NAO still appears (per the tenor of the operational runs last night) slated to complete a retrogression journey through the western end of the NAO domain space ... then collapsing S through the Maritimes to an eventual merger with the westerlies closer to middle latitudes over the eastern CONUS.

That whole evolution should take 4 to 6 days...  As it goes, there should be one ...perhaps two significant event chances... 4-6 days isn't a huge amount of time; in fact, 6 may be generous given recent trends.  But, as we near the far end of that time range, it is not clear whether the Pacific relay into N/A will enforce the same thing we have been seeing or not - there are reasons as you intimated with the MJO, to assess it could change.  In fact, details in that part of the circulation et al will also play a significant role in what is ejected down into the region ... up under the NAO blocking as it is doing that migration pathways described above.  

It's about as complex an atmosphere the models are trying to process for as there can be.  Just the block/NAO aspect alone - the 00Z operational GFS takes that mid lvl blocking on the inside route through eastern Canada, ...showing an eventual merger farther west through the G. Lakes region... the 06z takes it plumb south, or tries too, through the outer Maritimes.  Either one of these is plausible; yet both have [probably] different stresses on the pattern and more importantly... how features embedded in the pattern evolve in space and time.  Which... if one is getting my drift ... try being particular about storm identities when there is utter obscurity as to what will even take place - good luck... 

Meanwhile, with the MJO being "modestly" coherent in Phase 8-1-2 .. yeah, the expectation for a rising PNA index is okay...But then again... it almost has to rise anyway - it can't hang around -4 SD forever. I like Will and Scott's reasoning from yesterday (if I'm gathering this rightly...) that we probably don't really need a huge perfect complexion of a western rollin' ridge to dump some hugely teleconnected negative anomaly into the OV to make winter hay out of this... The NAO dividend is that it forces troughs to maximize their mechanical power...festering in a slow movement scenario... such that you don't really need a very strong 45 vmax and mega wall of DPVA to get higher end impacts to take place.. You can get there for duration and also, if things are set up, the potency isn't exactly lacking either.   The trick with the NAO is that it can bully the flow and suppress things to nothing... or, it can evolve too far east or west ... lot of moving part there.  This, so far, doesn't look terrible at least in the operative depictions.  We are still really just dealing with establishing a really nice table-set ... no idea who the guests are that will ultimately take seat. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You have been stationed in left field the vast majority of this winter.

None of that is true...zero.

Only rev can post this nonsense

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Only rev can post this nonsense

I am not saying that it can't miss...been wrong plenty of times and will be plenty more, but no one can say anything definitive at this insanely early juncture.