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January Med/Long Range Disco Part 2

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ji said:

As bob predicted....a disastrous 12z run..

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We're still 48 hours from really having the important pieces modeled accurately. If the threat is real, the gfs will probably be stubborn as heck and then abruptly jump on it. Even though the euro went more progressive last night it's still a model war at d4 leads. If the euro holds a more amplified solution inside of 72 then the gfs is going to prob bust badly. Otherwise the euro got schooled bad. 

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Quasievil

Quasievil

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

We're still 48 hours from really having the important pieces modeled accurately. If the threat is real, the gfs will probably be stubborn as heck and then abruptly jump on it. Even though the euro went more progressive last night it's still a model war at d4 leads. If the euro holds a more amplified solution inside of 72 then the gfs is going to prob bust badly. Otherwise the euro got schooled bad. 

This might just be perception but I feel that the GFS has done a better job this year. It's a train I'm reluctantly riding until further notice.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Dryness is just killing us. Every model in the last 24 hours had Bwi eclipsing 1" qpf over the last 2 days and all that fell was .48". There's no way we can trust the qpf they're spitting out and have to assume they're too high. God I hope we have some semblance of a Niño next year. 

That's the nature of warm sector stuff. I got over 1.5". It freekin poured a couple times yesterday. It might have been a locational bust but overall a lot of people got a lot of rain. 

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Quasievil

Quasievil

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Dryness is just killing us. Every model in the last 24 hours had Bwi eclipsing 1" qpf over the last 2 days and all that fell was .48". There's no way we can trust the qpf they're spitting out and have to assume they're too high. God I hope we have some semblance of a Niño next year. 

I work near BWI and although it was a gloomy day, it was mostly light showery and fog type stuff.

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osfan24

osfan24

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Ji said:

We will end up getting a trace next week when it's all said and done . And what happened to the frozen the euro has for us this morning lol

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FWIW, I recorded a trace this morning. Definitely had some flurries that accumulated very little on my deck.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I wish I saw the improvement others seem to. I'm just stuck on wanting this back....

 

vs what we have now 

 

Ive only seen a slow bleed away from the look that had me interested yesterday the last 3 runs. One of the things that had me thinking this had potential was for a brief moment we had the gfs and euro on the same page. Not as the surface but that didn't bother me. They were on the same page and heading in the right direction. We since have lost the gfs. So now we're back to euro vs all. That's hasn't been a good bet lately. 

As far as improvements I am referring to comparing the 12Z GFS to the 06z  where I thought the run had improved overall, at least up to 84 hr. But that is irrelevant at this point because that look is not close to what we need to see. We are starting to see the dig we need but until we see that trough sharpen up to where we can get a close off at 500 mb to our south and the axis beginning to hit negative as it rides through our region (instead of just neutral or even positive) we are pretty much out of the game for the coastal.

I know this gets thrown around a lot but to me the 12Z Euro/Eps run is a make or break run in regards to this. If it reverts back to the previous 12z run (per my post earlier this morning) then I think we are still very much in the game. If it follows up the 00Z run then I think we can pretty much put a fork into this.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
Just now, Scraff said:

After the GFS, I’m glad I’m drinking early. (Oliver’s Brewing 25th Anniversary Party) :drunk:

By Euro time, I should be the little yellow dude on the l right. LOLz. 

Until you tell me you're posting from Daniel's outside biker bar in Elkridge at midnight tonight, I ain't impressed.  ;)

 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Quasievil said:

I know people have accused you over the years of being a downer. You're not, especially now. The looks on the models at 12Z are awful.

I don't mind. Everyone is different. I understand why some take it that way. Sometimes my analysis of a specific run gets misinterpreted as my thoughts overall. Other times I see a risk of what could go wrong and when I articulate it as what to look out for people sometimes take it as me crapping on a good threat. 

Im not the kind of person who will just say no all the time to play the odds. That's not what I'm doing. I promise. There are plenty of examples over the years where I loved a look from range and said so and stick with it. I'll do that when I feel it. Twice last year I was really optimistic from a 5+ day look. Early January and march. Both storms ended up flawed here in the end but both were legit threats. 

But I'm not a stick my head in the sand kind either. I look at all the evidence available and draw my conclusions accordingly. People who act like I shouldn't have lowered expectations after a bad run of guidance are being silly. A bad run doesn't mean it's over. I've not put a nail in the coffin or anything. But if you feel as good about a threat after guidance trends bad then your kidding yourself. Yea it can be wrong. Yea trends can reverse. But that's not the odds. Usually when it starts trending bad that's bad. 

And as much of a downer as some think I am if you go back over the years I probably still over predict snow.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted

Im very hopeful for Feb-March. Prime climo can stick it. We will have the SSWE, MJO, SOI, QBO, Rossby Waves, and some other obscure indices working in our favor. If Feb-March fail to produce, Im putting all my chips in on an April HECS.

 

Eta: And if April fails, we have May. This year just feels like it wants to snow. Can u guys feel it?

 

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EastCoast NPZ

EastCoast NPZ

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

As far as improvements I am referring to comparing the 12Z to the 06z  where I thought the run had improved overall, at least up to 84 hr. But that is irrelevant at this point because that look is not close to what we need to see. We are starting to see the dig we need but until we see that trough sharpen up to where we can get a close off at 500 mb to our south and the axis beginning to hit negative as it rides through our region (instead of just neutral or even positive) we are pretty much out of the game for the coastal.

I know this gets thrown around a lot but to me the 12Z Euro/Eps run is a make or break run in regards to this. If it reverts back to the previous 12z run (per my post earlier this morning) then I think we are still very much in the game. If it follows up the 00Z run then I think we can pretty much put a fork into this.

 

23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We're still 48 hours from really having the important pieces modeled accurately. If the threat is real, the gfs will probably be stubborn as heck and then abruptly jump on it. Even though the euro went more progressive last night it's still a model war at d4 leads. If the euro holds a more amplified solution inside of 72 then the gfs is going to prob bust badly. Otherwise the euro got schooled bad. 

If the Euro gets its clock cleaned again (and it very likely will), then they should just power-off the ECMWF supercomputer until April.  Maybe use this as a chance to install all the Windows updates that have been building up.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
As far as improvements I am referring to comparing the 12Z GFS to the 06z  where I thought the run had improved overall, at least up to 84 hr. But that is irrelevant at this point because that look is not close to what we need to see. We are starting to see the dig we need but until we see that trough sharpen up to where we can get a close off at 500 mb to our south and the axis beginning to hit negative as it rides through our region (instead of just neutral or even positive) we are pretty much out of the game for the coastal.
I know this gets thrown around a lot but to me the 12Z Euro/Eps run is a make or break run in regards to this. If it reverts back to the previous 12z run (per my post earlier this morning) then I think we are still very much in the game. If it follows up the 00Z run then I think we can pretty much put a fork into this.

We know which way the former King will go. The writing is on the wall unfortunately. There is very little support now for Wed/Thurs. Lets hope the Tuesday fropa flakes can get juiced up for a solid coating anyway!
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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Im very hopeful for Feb-March. Prime climo can stick it. We will have the SSWE, MJO, SOI, QBO, Rossby Waves, and some other obscure indices working in our favor. If Feb-March fail to produce, Im putting all my chips in on an April HECS.

This is a big turn on the CFS2 for monthly temps over the last few days. SSW?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ji said:

What happened to the 21st 22 storm. We've moved on to 29th storm already hahaha!

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Sorry for my attemp at some fun. 21-22 is still there. This run it goes north and the training wave that would be a threat fails to materialize. It's there then gone run to run. Not surprising for that range. 

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We're still 48 hours from really having the important pieces modeled accurately. If the threat is real, the gfs will probably be stubborn as heck and then abruptly jump on it. Even though the euro went more progressive last night it's still a model war at d4 leads. If the euro holds a more amplified solution inside of 72 then the gfs is going to prob bust badly. Otherwise the euro got schooled bad. 

i'm on the "i'll take 1-2" of powder" bus, so with that said, i'm interested in what the euro says.

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Sparky

Sparky

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Dryness is just killing us. Every model in the last 24 hours had Bwi eclipsing 1" qpf over the last 2 days and all that fell was .48". There's no way we can trust the qpf they're spitting out and have to assume they're too high. God I hope we have some semblance of a Niño next year. 

Lots of localized banding with last night's storm.  I collected 2.20" overnight that changed to snow this morning collecting a good quarter inch plus.

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