Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ji said: good luck accumulating in the afternoon with temps above freezing lol. As we say it best in DC....next! Snow falling from the sky is the new HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 ICON is pretty vigorous with the IVT this run. My yard approves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Oh man. The GFS is SO CLOSE out here at 72. This one isnt dead yet for us western folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 GFS riding that IVT train to Valhalla. Congrats EZF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Congrats Leesburg: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: GFS riding that IVT train to Valhalla. Congrats EZF. Really starting to see guidance put at least some portion of our region in the crosshairs. They can be pretty fun but usually only for a select few. Maybe we can get the ole Rockville/Columbia death band going again. It's been a few years...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Really starting to see guidance put at least some portion of our region in the crosshairs. They can be pretty fun but usually only for a select few. Maybe we can get the ole Rockville/Columbia death band going again. It's been a few years...lol I would love that even though I’ll be suffering through 80F weather in LA Honestly, it’s about time to...gulp...start a thread on it after the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: I would love that even though I’ll be suffering through 80F weather in LA Honestly, it’s about time to...gulp...start a thread on it after the 12z runs. Prob a bit early for a thread don't you think? Subtle features like this can vaporize in an instant. I would wait until 48 hours out but we've done crazier threads in the past so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 ICON has a near perfect setup for the wave event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Prob a bit early for a thread don't you think? Subtle features like this can vaporize in an instant. I would wait until 48 hours out but we've done crazier threads in the past so... If it was the IVT alone I’d agree, but the coastal is getting close enough for shenanigans for the western folks at least. I’m happy to wait another 24hrs. Was just trying to deconflict the conversations about this event and next Friday-saturdays guaranteed 6”+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Is the inverted trough the same thing as a norlun trough? More common north but we occasionally see them set up down here with big winners over a small area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Pretty big changes in the H5 at 126 in the upper midwest/west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: If it was the IVT alone I’d agree, but the coastal is getting close enough for shenanigans for the western folks at least. I’m happy to wait another 24hrs. Was just trying to deconflict the conversations about this event and next Friday-saturdays guaranteed 6”+. Good point. If the euro teases the western folks then it's time to go hog wild for 6 hours before our hopes and dreams begin to disintegrate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Just now, North Balti Zen said: Is the inverted trough the same thing as a norlun trough? yea, pretty much interchangeable for our purposes. I'm sure there's some technical difference that I don't understand but for how we look at things they are one in the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: ICON has a near perfect setup for the wave event.... Yeah but doesnt drop that much QPF after the change over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Just now, Interstate said: Yeah but doesnt drop that much QPF after the change over I don't look at this stuff verbatim. Just the trajectory and setup. It's a great look with cold pressing right over the top and a wave forming to our southwest. That's what we want to look for and not some n-s aligned strong front where precip runs a great risk of shutting off as the cold air gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: yea, pretty much interchangeable for our purposes. I'm sure there's some technical difference that I don't understand but for how we look at things they are one in the same. Thanks. Wanted to be sure before posting this. For what it's worth, in case people want to read up on the phenomena, this is pretty good: http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2011/01/exactly-what-is-a-norlun-trough-and-how-do-you-forecast-weather-associated-with-it.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Looks pretty strong to me.. 1010 surface low popping at 156 hours. That will cut.. but maybe there will be more trailing energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS riding that IVT train to Valhalla. Congrats EZF. caught wind that a few found themselves there week on the new episode of Vikings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 And the GFS goes all amp on us and ruins the party until 18z...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Op GFS continuing to trend the wrong way for late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 And the CMC pulls off the amp miracle and sucks us all back in...did I say it was going to be a long week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 This has a good chance to be a good storm. Big block over the Arctic circle with 4-PV Split, One of which is diving into the US as a 980s mb low cuts through southern Canada. As heights come crashing down, low pressure relocates south, hitting what seems to be open gulf moisture stream(may verify drier as it gets closer) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: And the GFS goes all amp on us and ruins the party until 18z...lol Ha, but the CMC saves the day. 995mb at the mouth of the Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ha, but the CMC saves the day. 995mb at the mouth of the Bay. I'd much prefer the simple wave idea... strong storm + amp = trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 GFS still smokes us pretty good but honestly, I don't like that progression at all. It could work but it introduces a lot of all rain risk into the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 I hate the GFS. When we need a NW trend (84 hours) nope. Then the next storm hauls ass west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ha, but the CMC saves the day. 995mb at the mouth of the Bay. snowing at 180 and on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GFS still smokes us pretty good but honestly, I don't like that progression at all. It could work but it introduces a lot of all rain risk into the equation. Keeps driving the heaviest snow west with each run... it has gone from central Frederick county to central/north Ohio in the last three runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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