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Typhoon Tip

Nearing the 2nd half of Meteorological winter:

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

March 14th, 2017th analog?

dwm500_test_20170314.gif

Yea, the mid levels are modeled to track over CNE like march 17. We need the trough to start digging more over the wknd for an uber weenie solution. PF, Dendrite, and Dryslot in the strikezone at the moment. 

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I have a feelin' this Euro op. run due out here in the next few is going to go nuts with this thing... 

Probably shouldn't saying that because it won't now, but I do see that the pattern as modeled in the blend/et al seems to fit right into the Euro's bias.  The meridional flow is already in place this time, and the SPV fragment/subsume may be voided in lieu of just taking intermediate stream dynamics and drilling it through Cinci

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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Pretty close to pinching off that ULL. Ridge bridge.  If that occurs we could get a pretty sizable event.

You’d have to think, with that look in Canada, the trough gets carved out deeper into the tenn valley. 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’d have to think, with that look in Canada, the trough gets carved out deeper into the tenn valley. 

That's my biggest issue right now.  The trough is just not carved out deep enough.  It's a very broad one and the surface reflection is dorta meh.

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16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That thing next week could be powder keg ...  That U/A of the N-stream is moving in about two days post the circulation total mass field having packed the hell out of the thickness...then, collocated that right smack over the Gulf Stream when using ...just about any model. 

I suspect the only reason we haven't seen a more robust/coherently stronger depiction already is the g-models being cutesy with details. 

I would argue that the non-hydrostatic model types will do well if that 'general' table-set is still offering up as we end the weekend there.   I tell you, if you just cut out the domain of S-SE Canada and the U.S. OV/MA/NE regions that "ICON" model from Germany is fairly reasonable 1978 analog.  Don't know about the total domain...just that region tho. Don't know much about that model, either... but that idea of the western end of SPV fragment turning cyclonically S all at once there is pretty much exactly what happened around F3/4 back whence.  

We nuke

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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

That's my biggest issue right now.  The trough is just not carved out deep enough.  It's a very broad one and the surface reflection is dorta meh.

Lets see if weenieology will beat gfs-ology. I suspect it’s not properly handling the trough when you bridge the pna and war like that. 

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Top CIPS analog for next week seems to be this:

1 / 15 / 1983

January Snowstorm of 1983 (January 15-16, 1983)

Although well-predicted, this classic nor'easter raised havoc across eastern New York and New England. Albany reported 24.5 inches with amounts of almost 30 inches reported in Saratoga County, but less than a foot in the lower Hudson Valley. Up to 20” of snow in the Berkshires with 12-18 inches in southern Vermont and Northwest Connecticut. For Albany, this storm  is the greatest January snowfall on record and one of the greatest stormsnows.  The heavy snow brought travel to a standstill across many locations, and may injuries were reported due to auto accidents. 

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7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Lol... #2 is 1/22/2005

Not bad!

Some SE Mass spots with 36"

That storm had some form of gravity wave, or moisture deformation issues, ...  some kind of thing going on that disrupted a ubiquitous result, because there were concentric bands of entirely pedestrian amounts NW of those SE zones.. For that alone, it's total score took a hit. 

I was up in Acton Mass at the time ...I think we got 6.5" or so...and was mid way inside a 10 mile wide band from NE CT to the Merrimack Valley that took up advisory snow from that system. 

I don't mean to downplay or spin out it's significance to those it did impact, but some how some way that thing was a cosmic dildo storm. 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That storm had some form of gravity or moisture deformation issues of some kind going on, because there were concentric bands of entirely pedestrian amounts NW of those SE zones.. I was up in Acton Mass at the time ...I think we got 6.5" of so...and was mid way inside a 10 mile wide band from NE CT to the Merrimack Valley that took up advisory snow from that system. 

I don't mean to downplay or spin out it's significance to those it did impact, but some how some way that thing was a cosmic dildo storm. 

Ouch  My hood still got close to 2 feet (Gardner, MA had 22")

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That storm had some form of gravity or moisture deformation issues of some kind going on, because there were concentric bands of entirely pedestrian amounts NW of those SE zones.. I was up in Acton Mass at the time ...I think we got 6.5" of so...and was mid way inside a 10 mile wide band from NE CT to the Merrimack Valley that took up advisory snow from that system. 

I don't mean to downplay or spin out it's significance to those it did impact, but some how some way that thing was a cosmic dildo storm. 

It had a great waa push into HFD, recall being at my girls and picking up 14” or so then the ccb kept shifting SE. The 30-36” forecast crapped out. 

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It had a great waa push into HFD, recall being at my girls and picking up 14” or so then the ccb kept shifting SE. The 30-36” forecast crapped out. 

Yeah, ...it was a huge storm...  Undoubtedly, a knee jerk member of the hoi polloi is now incensed and pounding out a resentfully intoned diatribe to refute my statement, clearly having not read the statement regarding not taking away anything from those who were impacted,  but...they are over reacting and well...wrong. 

The storm did have an arcing screw zone, AND, the biggest ones of lore and fact, didn't/don't do that... So, it doesn't get a VIP pass into that circle of elites ... despite being a huge storm. 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, ...it was a huge storm...  Undoubtedly, a knee jerk member of the hoi polloi is now incensed and pounding out a resentfully intoned diatribe to refute my statement, clearly having not read the statement regarding not taking away anything from those who were impacted,  but...they are over reacting and well...wrong. 

The storm did have an arcing screw zone, AND, the biggest ones of lore and fact, didn't/don't do that... So, it doesn't get a VIP pass into that circle of elites ... despite being a huge storm. 

Tip, I hope that you didn't take my response this way.  I agree that in that event your area got mega screwed with only that amount, when just miles away in many directions got 1.5-2 feet

Anyhoo...I never really know how to take CIPS analogs.

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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Tip, I hope that you didn't take my response this way.  I agree that in that event your area got mega screwed with only that amount, when just miles away in many directions got 1.5-2 feet

Anyhoo...I never really know how to take CIPS analogs.

One thing to never take literally is the "snow" output.  It's great for ULL comparisons to show the potential.  At least that how I use them.

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

One thing to never take literally is the "snow" output.  It's great for ULL comparisons to show the potential.  At least that how I use them.

Good point.  I think that is really what they are supposed to be used for.  And the same ULL could give you a million different possibilities.

At this time out, they are just a curiosity

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The CIPs analogs are also only as good as the model output...if a model like the Euro is showing a totally different upper air evolution, then the CIPs analogs wouldn't be as valuable because it's going off the GFS (when we get close enough it goes off the NAM).

 

But I'd say in this setup where the ULL configuration so far is fairly well agreed upon, the CIPS analogs are a nice tool to show the potential. The Jan '83 storm had some taint issues on the coast...was a very good storm for the interior and even suburbs of Boston...but yeah, the jackpot was like ALB with the banding...prob a lot of jackpot fetish meltdowns in here if that happened again....but I wouldn't sneeze at 10-16" over the interior regardless...we still have work to do to get this storm up to that level....but the upper air is definitely favorable for a larger event.

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17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Tip, I hope that you didn't take my response this way.  I agree that in that event your area got mega screwed with only that amount, when just miles away in many directions got 1.5-2 feet

Anyhoo...I never really know how to take CIPS analogs.

no heh i was just being tongue in cheek ... 

but sometimes there is a bit of an auto-pilot type of vitriol that happens from some users in here, ..if one dares even hint an insinuation that challenges the sanctity of their coveted events. ahaha. 

it's like dealing with Patriots football fans whenever the topic of Tom Brady comes up.  

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