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January Mid-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF

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4 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I'd say the GEPS are on board with a -AO...looks very similar the euro op.

cmc_z500a_nh_41.thumb.png.0ab71ad851dea7ea1f51dbe7e9e3af4b.png

and it's also on board then for a hostile Pacific that's raising heights in the Conus and giving us a west to east zonal flow

that low sitting over the Pac NW is killing us

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

and it's also on board then for a hostile Pacific that's raising heights in the Conus and giving us a west to east zonal flow

that low sitting over the Pac NW is killing us

yep...i have seen -AO's that havent done a thing for us. whats really killing us all winter is a non southern jet...if we were below average in precip...we would of gotten good snow this winter but we literally have gotten no precipitation since Dec 8. Like zero

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

and it's also on board then for a hostile Pacific that's raising heights in the Conus and giving us a west to east zonal flow

that low sitting over the Pac NW is killing us

Oh, no doubt about it...I'm just looking for sign that the warmup will muted/short lived.  Some legit blocking is a silver lining in an otherwise crappy pattern on the horizon.

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25 minutes ago, Ji said:

yep...i have seen -AO's that havent done a thing for us. whats really killing us all winter is a non southern jet...if we were below average in precip...we would of gotten good snow this winter but we literally have gotten no precipitation since Dec 8. Like zero

I miss the mighty EL NINO   eh........................  make that moderate intensity and West based please   :-)   

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6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The Ukie who's usually on the west side of guidance is not far from workable Saturdsy . It also has more separation between the n and s streams allowing higher  hieghts to build over top like Euro ..maybe even looks a hair better then big brother  .

 

Interesting, looks a little more like the 6z NAVGEM.  Ukie isn't loading on the usual page for me today.  

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6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I didn't know I still knew how to cry....

I just watched Coco with the kids. It totally made me shed a few tears

And if we get crushed by what’s depicted on that map, I’ll cry again damn it...and watch Coco again just because...

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3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, folks often forget that we have about a 150-200 mile wide favorable storm track and about 1,000 mile wide unfavorable one. lol. West is west. Period. But that window is like 1,000 miles and we can still get rain. The snow side of things is almost 1/10th of that. 

There is also a lesser margin of track for cutter type systems impacted by the Apps and also the Rockies.  It usually leads to a track somewhere between Altoona and over or just east of Cincy.  It’s a narrow corridor.  Almost no systems track over central or eastern Indiana and very few over western Indiana and Chicago because it requires a nasty dig over the southern plains which is infrequent.  Generally most Chicago cutter snows were big OKC snows a day or two before and OKC doesnt see very many big snows.  The possible paths for coastal huggers or nor’easters is much wider so we see more change in track 

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14 minutes ago, Ji said:

maybe the Jan 16 storm is that jan 2001 storm that PSU mentioned

The 2001 storm was a wave that developed immediately following a rainstorm that got the front under us. That would be more like if the Saturday thing worked out. 

Didn't look today but there were a couple coastals a few days after the analog periods yesterday. That's probably indicative of the 16tg threat. 

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The 2001 storm was a wave that developed immediately following a rainstorm that got the front under us. That would be more like if the Saturday thing worked out. 

Didn't look today but there were a couple coastals a few days after the analog periods yesterday. That's probably indicative of the 16tg threat. 

yep. Problem with the first rain storm this week is that its cutting through Western wisconsin and not Western PA

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21 minutes ago, Ji said:

yep. Problem with the first rain storm this week is that its cutting through Western wisconsin and not Western PA

One thing to loo for as a long shot type of thing that wouldnt show up yet but can pop up closer. Even if the second storm does cut the trough doesn't swing through fast and there is a window for another wave. Models have hinted at it by having some lingering snow showers on some runs with the energy swinging through behind the cutter. So far the energy has been too discreet to get enough surface reflection to be more then that but it wouldn't take much and that's something worth watching. After that the 16th looks like the next window. 

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