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mackerel_sky

The January 7-8th possible CAD storm

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12z GFS much warmer than the NAM at hour 78. GFS would have temps in the 40s for a large part of the SE CAD areas, whereas the NAM is close to freezing, Also dew points more than ten degrees lower on the NAM. I would put my bets on the NAM (..for CAD temps), but I'm still not thinking this will be a big event.   

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9 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

12z GFS much warmer than the NAM at hour 78. GFS would have temps in the 40s for a large part of the SE CAD areas, whereas the NAM is close to freezing, Also dew points more than ten degrees lower on the NAM. I would put my bets on the NAM (..for CAD temps), but I'm still not thinking this will be a big event.   

The biggest issues are timing and amount of precip! Get some in here 6-12 hrs earlier, and decent rates, would be a whole new ballgame. Still got a few days to trend better or worse

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2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

The biggest issues are timing and amount of precip! Get some in here 6-12 hrs earlier, and decent rates, would be a whole new ballgame. Still got a few days to trend better or worse

Is it looking any better for N GA? I know we'd get precip in here sooner but it's probably not as cold as where you are in the upstate.

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1 minute ago, CummingGaSnow said:

Is it looking any better for N GA? I know we'd get precip in here sooner but it's probably not as cold as where you are in the upstate.

It showed a few blips of ice in NGA, but didn't last long. As modeled at 12z runs, NAM wasn't good, GFS wasn't really icy, see if Canadian still has the same icy look it had last night, in a bit

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48 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

Well hardly any chatter is bad news from past experience , hate to see this, was hoping for a good thump on the front end Sunday night / Monday morning.

My guess is a lot of us are dubious at this point - we have seen this set up several times the past few weeks and each one has trended into nothingness but cold.  Until we are closer and/or I see some more positive trends I am tempering my expectations

 

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6 minutes ago, NEGa said:

My guess is a lot of us are dubious at this point - we have seen this set up several times the past few weeks and each one has trended into nothingness but cold.  Until we are closer and/or I see some more positive trends I am tempering my expectations

 

Thought this could be different, no strong cold air to the North and normal temps behind the storm and we go into a different pattern, should not be supressed, but we suck at winter storms, so the streak continues 

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3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Thought this could be different, no strong cold air to the North and normal temps behind the storm and we go into a different pattern, should not be supressed, but we suck at winter storms, so the streak continues 

Exactly! Usually in relaxation periods in transitions (which this is) is when our winter storms come alot. This could still turn our way, still time.

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Cold and dry to mild and....., well, dry.  I'm seeing a common denominator here and on the heels of a dry fall, I'm not liking where we are headed on the drought meter already in 2018.

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10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

UKMET has nothing east of the GA-AL line at 72 hours 

So, all of our systems are either suppressed from cold or drying up because of cold. What does it take to get a winter storm besides moisture...oh yeah, cold. 

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47 minutes ago, mrdaddyman said:

12Z CMC is suppressed to the GOM. Suppression is the theme of this winter so far. WAA makes it a moot point anyway.

Sorry, but the CMC is not suppressed at all.  There is convection robbing moisture up stream which is what the NAM has been advertising.  Just like every other model the HPS pulls out super fast.  However, we are not depending on the HPS to hold in place while moisture over runs it.  Dewpoints will be extremely low and as moisture falls into this cold air evaporational cooling will take place and there you have an insuti-wedge.  If the convection at the coast robs moisture up stream there will not be moisture to cool the air at the surface.

One thing for sure, you cannot model hug in these situations.  It will bite you.

CMC_moisture.png

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12 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

I stated when I posted it was ice. Clowns don't differeniate. Trust me I know how to look at a sounding.

My point was that the following quote was misleading, "Hr 90 gfs vort is open and snowing good n ga and sc,nc mtns, couple inches down on clown already." There are people on here who don't know how to look at soundings and take those maps verbatim so it's always good to clarify what's going on, jmho.

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Why do I have a feeling this will be a now-casting situation where we just have to watch actual radar trends. I don't expect much from this but as far south as I live, a nice light glaze will be enough for me (if enough moisture can fall). Just enough to take some pics is all I ask for.

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JMA out to hour 72 has the low in the Gulf. It's also slower to the point that if it could slow even more the high coming in from the NW could possible work in on time to help. **I know wishful thinking, with moderately cold air chasing precip. 

aaaa2.jpg

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FFC just updated with some good and bad news.

 12Z models seems to be a touch slower and a little
further north with QPF than 06Z models. More later.

Timing is not as good but precip further north is. They said they would do a 2pm briefing today about the situation, interesting what they will say.

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13 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Energy coming on shore in CA looks feisty. 

Yep, setting up for a nice rainstorm.

Here's the 54 hr map.  The northern wave is not linking up with but instead, moving SE in tandem with the southern wave, acting to keep it south.

54.thumb.jpg.2843d0d9ed333aa51492797932470ecb.jpg

 

At 90, the flow turns out of the west/northwest, as the southern vort has dug, cutoff, and is sunbathing on the lovely Panama City Beach.  It doesn't help that the ridge out west is moving rapidly east.  Not a great setup for a widespread winter storm.

90.thumb.jpg.bcebd9fb4bdef661f04cbdf6f1dd602c.jpg

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I for one will model hug the NAM until I am blue in the face for the foreseeable future.

I'm going to have a hard time believing any model at this range outside of the NAM after the past storms, especially the 1/3-1/4 storm, until one proves to be more accurate.  

Temperatures here with overriding events like this will always come to nowcasting.  There have been several storms where the day of the HRRR, RAP, etc...move that freezing line north and south of 85 and until it sets up you just don't know where that will be.  So I am not worried about temps until closer to the event. 

For now, will there even be a storm and precip?  I will lean with the NAM's current track and ride it until something shows otherwise.

Pack put the images below of three days out from the last storm and the NAM nearly nailed the low LOCATION. The GFS was bad and Euro horrendous.

N0kb12d.png

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21 minutes ago, CummingGaSnow said:

Why do I have a feeling this will be a now-casting situation where we just have to watch actual radar trends. I don't expect much from this but as far south as I live, a nice light glaze will be enough for me (if enough moisture can fall). Just enough to take some pics is all I ask for.

Because every situation comes down to that.  That's why.  It's all we do.  We watch every single model run, and then we watch radar trends.  This is no different than any other potential storm.  :lol:

20 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Let's see if it's suppressed:

...clip...

From Colorado straight to the Bahamas.

I think the more accurate word is depressed.  That fits more with the general mood of the board.  :D

  • Haha 3

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