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Baroclinic Zone

January 4-6 Coastal Bomb Observations/Nowcast

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Looking at radar, the precipitation shield is much more expansive with some heavy bands 50-60 miles west of what was modeled. I'm getting more optimistic about western areas and the Greens.

 

Latest HRRR seems to be throwing some better bands back into SW CT and up into the Berkshires as well.

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11 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

10z hrrr really gives western mass some love, let’s do this!

If the difference between what it's showing for radar at hour 1 and the 7 flakes that I've seen is any indication, I'd say 'toss'.  Hopefully we'll over perform.  I'm guessing a high end of 6" here.  For you further south and east of the river, you'll do much better.  Enjoy.

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Just now, codfishsnowman said:

they are always conservative, often rightfully so

we are really riding the line of big snow with this, would love to see another 25-50 mi jump nw

hope you are right

It came about as nw as we could possibly will it. Enjoy your 8-12”.

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2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

If the difference between what it's showing for radar at hour 1 and the 7 flakes that I've seen, I'd say 'toss'.  Hopefully we'll over perform.  I'm guessing a high end of 6" here.  For you further south and east of the river, you'll do much better.  Enjoy.

6" seems like a good number for you 

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I'm a little concerned looking at the IR and rotation, seems like last couple frames it's almost taken an ENE trajectory.. I also realize the precip field is expansive, but with the progressive flow, and now almost taking a 90 one has to wonder if totals will be less in Western areas now? My original call west of the river for 6-10 stands though.

 

-SN 19/11... approaching .5" OTG

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1 minute ago, tavwtby said:

I'm a little concerned looking at the IR and rotation, seems like last couple frames it's almost taken an ENE trajectory.. I also realize the precip field is expansive, but with the progressive flow, and now almost taking a 90 one has to wonder if totals will be less in Western areas now? My original call west of the river for 6-10 stands though.

 

-SN 19/11... approaching .5" OTG

That was expected and well modeled

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11 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

I'm a little concerned looking at the IR and rotation, seems like last couple frames it's almost taken an ENE trajectory.. I also realize the precip field is expansive, but with the progressive flow, and now almost taking a 90 one has to wonder if totals will be less in Western areas now? My original call west of the river for 6-10 stands though.

 

-SN 19/11... approaching .5" OTG

I think that jog was expected and modeled.

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17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The west ideas from the Nam yesterday appear to have been correct. A crushing coming for most folks here

 

1 minute ago, tavwtby said:

I'm a little concerned looking at the IR and rotation, seems like last couple frames it's almost taken an ENE trajectory.. I also realize the precip field is expansive, but with the progressive flow, and now almost taking a 90 one has to wonder if totals will be less in Western areas now? My original call west of the river for 6-10 stands though.

 

-SN 19/11... approaching .5" OTG

This ENE jog  at this point has been well-modeled.  I wouldnt' change the thinking, unless you were over-optimistic.

sn-, 14.8*

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