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George BM

January Banter String

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I am down with any radar halluciations and hope. One of my dreams still is another reverse bust storm/blizzard - I got that in my part of Ohio in January 1996, it was magical. One inch forecast, 13 inches fell over 24 hours. It was the best. 

Rooting like hell for the inland weenie posts in the south.

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35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea we're cutting the less but the finish line is fast approaching. I would feel better with where we are if I lived east of 95 or we had 24 more hours. But if this ends up like last last January when I got a few flurries while ocean city and NYC get buried I'd have rather it stayed east of Bermuda and saved me having to even think about it. 

ETA:  no offense to those on the Delmarva. I don't begrudge you your snow. Enjoy it. But it's just human nature. If the storm was 500 miles away you don't even think about it. But when it's close enough to smell the snow it's on your mind. Two years in a row same time of year is a bit tough to take. 

@WxWatcher007

If I was put on the "watch list" for some perceived panicky post, then our boy Hoff has to take one on the chin for this.

:lol:

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Just now, mattie g said:

@WxWatcher007

If I was put on the "watch list" for some perceived panicky post, then our boy Hoff has to take one on the chin for this.

:lol:

See, that isn't panic (neither was what got you and me on that list when we shouldn't have been). That's just PSU laying out the truth. It's a backyard game, ultimately.

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4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

@WxWatcher007

If I was put on the "watch list" for some perceived panicky post, then our boy Hoff has to take one on the chin for this.

:lol:

 

2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

See, that isn't panic (neither was what got you and me on that list when we shouldn't have been). That's just PSU laying out the truth. It's a backyard game, ultimately.

Yeah, that's not panic..and he's talking about the end of the storm, not winter :lol: 

I also take personal history into account. PSU led a lot of you to the grave last year in March tracking failed storms lol. He ain't jumping off the cliff on January 3. 

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Some great reads in the AFD's south of here.  Check this one out from Greenville/Spartanburg

Concern is growing that the system will complete the transition to a
neutral tilt over AL/GA, then become negatively tilted crossing the
western Carolinas. Upper jet divergence ahead of this feature should
sharpen up very quickly over the central piedmont of the Carolinas
from 18Z to 21Z and a robust region of deep layer Q-vector
convergence will likely cross the area as well. Meanwhile, the
associated surface reflection will likely develop near the north
Florida coast and then deepen northward over the coastal waters of
the Carolinas. All of these features may well come together to
provide just enough moisture, and improving forcing, for snow
showers to develop mainly southeast of Charlotte. This could lead to
some quick accumulations of snow on the very cold ground, especially
over Union County NC this afternoon and early this evening. The
current feeling is that any strong frontogenesis bands will set up
east of the forecast area, so we shouldn`t be looking at any heavy
convective rates in our forecast area - unless the aforementioned
slower and more westward trends accelerate. Radar trends will need
to be monitored closely today for a short fuse SPS or winter weather
advisory should any snow showers threaten the lower piedmont.

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2 minutes ago, Ltrain said:

Does anyone else stay away from watching or reading any coverage of a storm if we are on the crap end?  Maybe it's just me but I try to stay away from it completely, especially with a storm this strong.  I kinda of want it over with as quick as possible.  It's the jealousy I suppose. I watch the southern and eastern people get decent storms the past couple of years and the northern and western peeps also get good banding and we are stuck in the middle. The blizzard of 2016 really sucked when we were caught in a dry slot for 5 hours and missed out on an additional 10" of snow not more than 10 miles to your west and northwest. 

I feel the same way. Blizzard was terrible, for real.

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With blizzard warnings up for the Tidewater of Virginia, I can recommend this spot as a great place to post up for anyone chasing: http://first-landing-state-park.org/

Went there last January and rented a cabin during their last blizzard warning.  Cozy, affordable, great proximity to the beach, beautiful level hiking trails through the forest and the rangers shoveled our sidewalks regularly.  Grocery store a mile up the road, booze easily accessible.  If it wasn't during the first work week of the year, I would be very tempted to head there again for this storm.

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8 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

2016 Blizzard gave me over 30".  Are people complaining they didn't get 40 or were there folks that got only 20?

19" here with 29" at BWI just a hop, skip and a jump from here.  

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18 minutes ago, Ltrain said:

19" here with 29" at BWI just a hop, skip and a jump from here.  

Honestly it was never truly heavy snow. 20” here over that period of time is not impressive. Not sure why some folks belittle those that weren’t satisfied.

we get it, you’ve a hard on for the blizz  

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It's really tough to not feel like Lucy is just getting ready for her best, latest ball fake out this winter. I'm well east of 95, so I'm feeling pretty good, but as others have said, this has heartbreak written all over it. 

I want to enjoy this, but I don't want the heartbreak. 

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Time to get up in front of class....

I publicly admit I blew it and let my conservative odds approach to events here get in the way of what was really possible with this coastal. I was literally 100% sure nobody along 95 stood a chance. There was literally nothing about the setup that led me to believe there was a chance in the medium range. I'll remember this event because I can't remember the last time I was 100% sure about something in the med range when there was obviously a way to get it done. Everything broke right and it's happening. Maybe I get skunked but some areas west of the bay are all but guaranteed a memorable event and not a paltry dusting at this point. 

With that said, IF there's ever another setup like this I'm going to be 99% sure and just keep my mouth shut. LOL

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