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rduwx

January 3-4 Storm Thread part II

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7 minutes ago, rduwx said:

Weenie post!  I'm really liking the way the radar is looking right now.  Moisture pushing inland and the back edge near Charlotte is not progressing east very quick.

Hope you guys score. There is no "backedge" in Charlotte. We didn't get anything, dewpoint is 4. better hope your dewpoints get to 20

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3 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

NWS Raleigh not impressed updated AFD.


 

Well when I said I was liking the radar I should of put that in a little more perspective.  I'm not expecting 4 inches here.  After this mornings model runs, I'm trying to scrape out an inch or two...:lol:

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Just now, CaryWx said:

Sounds like RAH is sticking a fork in Wake county--maybe a dusting.  Maybe

Eh. I think we can do better. 

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Just now, CaryWx said:

Sounds like RAH is sticking a fork in Wake county--maybe a dusting.  Maybe

Just don't see that.  Snow reports are moving right up hwy 1.  

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Just now, Regan said:

Eh. I think we can do better. 

Sure,  I'd give folks east of hwy 401 a better shot at 1" but I don't live over on that side of the county

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1 minute ago, WakeCountyWX said:

 

I just put this in the venting thread, but this is essentially the equivalent of this thing stopping, turning, and going around Raleigh. Why am I not surprised.

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16 minutes ago, rduwx said:

I'm going positive here and say we'll see at least an inch.  You know we've been in a snow drought if we're excited for an inch...LOL!

Inch already in Rockingham! - What did the NWS call for them?

Also - be on the lookout for mixing issues up in NE NC (Eliz City, etc)

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2 minutes ago, PGAWx said:

Just don't see that.  Snow reports are moving right up hwy 1.  

They will evaporate generally if the progg is correct

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Look at the trend over the last 4 HRRR runs too, that heavier stuff to our south is really moving up towards RDU. I don't know what to think at this point!

hrrr_asnow_seus_fh11_trend.gif

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20z HRRR cannot be looked at... It isnt even initializing properly. 1 inch at the Rock and HRRR shows nothing for hours.

By looks of Radar Scope, snow is imminent for RDU

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1 minute ago, uncjibble said:

Look at the trend over the last 4 HRRR runs too, that heavier stuff to our south is really moving up towards RDU. I don't know what to think at this point!

hrrr_asnow_seus_fh11_trend.gif

We'll know how it's doing in about 2 hours...that's when precip is supposed to start on that model.

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6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

What does the RAP say?

Here's the 20z RAP.  Though Pivotal only has a National view.  Snow shields powered up over Wake. 

 

 

RAP 20z.png

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2 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

20z HRRR cannot be looked at... It isnt even initializing properly. 1 inch at the Rock and HRRR shows nothing for hours.

By looks of Radar Scope, snow is imminent for RDU

We will see in just a few. Leading edge about to roll over Two Rivers Farm. (my place)

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2 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

That is not a bad look at all!

hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_6.png

That's more what you would expect w/ this setup to be honest. At least if you ignore the sfc and look at 5h.

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2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I've learned to listen to what RAH has to say after years of being burned by model runs and looking at radars; but man does the radar look great for RDU right now.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=RAX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

 

yea looks pretty darn good for rdu, hrrr looks amazing. what a turnaround!  hope y'all get it!

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