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The December to Remember 7th-8th blue turd winter threat thread.


lilj4425
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Yeah--let's remember that more often than not, even in January, those snowfall maps end up being reduced by at least half, if not more. As others have said, I'd be shocked if anyone receives more than a car topper this time around. But be of good cheer, winter seems to be setting in for the foreseeable future. 

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41 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

Keep in mind the snow map is based off 10:1 ratios and doesn’t factor much else in. The warm ground temps, the fact it’ll be a heavy wet snow with temps about 33-34 will really cut down on totals. Realistically I would say a slushy 1-2” max if you take the Euro verbatim. 

My mother-in-law is coming in from Dublin, Ireland. Any snow for her will be a treat.

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

It looks like it's ready to rock and roll at 84...although the precip looks like it changes to rain for the Triangle, even as the heavier precip rates engage.

I think it would flip back to snow with the heaver rates. Dew points continue to show a colder look (...storm creating it's own cold):

 

aaaa.jpg

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1 minute ago, WintersNotComing said:

Is that NAM really reliable for a system like this? I’m just wondering because it seems to be spitting out a much better solution than the other models. I’ve seen people say the NAM isn’t a good model but I do remember back in January it was pretty spot on.


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It tends to show overamped solutions quite frequently.  Plus, it degrades substantially after 48hrs or so.

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As others have mentioned, the upper jet structure is good here (right entrance region of jet over the northeast)...that should allow for precip to expand back to the west.  Models are notorious for being too skimpy on the NW side of Miller A's....should see the precip expand back to the NW with that kind of jet structure

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1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

There is definitely some sort of warm nose, I just dont know how thick it is. 

Soundings are your best friend :) Nam is great for sniffing out warm noses but can be overamped at extended ranges of 60+ hours so I wouldn't put too much stock in this solution for now... but it is useful for seeing where a warm nose might set up.

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