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Upstate/Eastern New York


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6 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Yeah, all systems go until further notice...And you guys in the Rochester area should be pumped about what's going on in the UP of Michigan.  Lake Superior is puking snow up there right now.  

Yeah I like places north of 90 to get a foot of snow from Orleans to Oswego. Best spot IMO will be Perrysburg and higher elevations of Catt county, I think some of those higher elevations get close to 2'. The WAA snows will be lower ratios, but the lake effect should be pretty fluffy. The last few LES events I experienced the last 2 weeks have been similar to synoptic systems with lower QPF (1:12 to 1:15). This base is going to take a long time to thaw out. 

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah I like places north of 90 to get a foot of snow from Orleans to Oswego. Best spot IMO will be Perrysburg and higher elevations of Catt county, I think some of those higher elevations get close to 2'. 

Agree...that Perrysburg to Sherman area up on the ridge should come in with some serious totals.  Time for them to play catch-up with you guys...

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I’m pretty optimistic at the moment..Temps are still in the low 20’s with a nice “fluff” factor..Nws from yesterday..

Additional support for
widespread snow will come from warm advection near 850mb. A blend of
12z QPF guidance with SLR between 15:1 and 20:1

Hrrr continues to show about 1/2” liquid with the clipper by morning , could be looking at 6”-8” of fluff overnight..

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I dunno just not feeling tonight/tomorrow's event.  Only feeling 3-5" for BUF and suburbs.  Those with the LE should make out well.

Two other things To watch...

System Wednesday night is trending north and now we are on the fringe.  Anymore north and we could get another nice sysnapotic storm. 

Last frame of the NAM pickups a small wave and fires up a band on Erie with a SW flow.  Out there but maybe something to watch.  These quick hitting 8-12 hour bands have been putting down some snow...

 

 

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New Meso disco just updated for the Immediate CNY area includes all major cities from KROC, KOSW, KSYR, KRME & KFZY!

MD 1795 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1795
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0930 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

   Areas affected...Central NY

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 120330Z - 120930Z

   SUMMARY...Snowfall rates will increase gradually through 06-09z,
   with peak rates likely to exceed 1 inch per hour from about 07-12z.

   DISCUSSION...In association with a midlevel shortwave trough
   approaching the upper OH Valley, a deformation snow band has been
   developing eastward over Lake Erie.  Low-midlevel warm
   advection/ascent in advance of the trough, as well as weak
   frontogenesis, will support additional eastward expansion of the
   snow band across central NY through the early morning hours. 
   Top-down saturation of the column is just beginning across western
   into central NY, and snowfall rates will increase as column
   saturation develops eastward and forcing for ascent increases
   through the early morning hours.  Peak snowfall rates should
   approach or exceed 1 inch per hour, and may persist for 3-6 hours at
   locations within the expected corridor of the snow band.

 

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18 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

I dunno just not feeling tonight/tomorrow's event.  Only feeling 3-5" for BUF and suburbs.  Those with the LE should make out well.

Two other things To watch...

System Wednesday night is trending north and now we are on the fringe.  Anymore north and we could get another nice sysnapotic storm. 

Last frame of the NAM pickups a small wave and fires up a band on Erie with a SW flow.  Out there but maybe something to watch.  These quick hitting 8-12 hour bands have been putting down some snow...

 

 

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I hope so, this is reminding me of last winter when the Buffalo metro kept sitting out event after event after event.

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1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said:

Flurries here in WS. All of metro BUF getting down sloped like a mofo with winds racing from the south right off the Boston Hills. Will be lucky to see an inch total with these paltry rates. 

 

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How high are the boston hills anyway?  Always wondered if they were as high, if not higher, than the Tug?

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Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said:

How high are the boston hills anyway?  Always wondered if they were as high, if not higher, than the Tug?

Max elevation is around 1800-1900'. Most of them between 1200'-1600'. Surrounding area is 800' or less. My house located about 7 miles north of the start of the Boston Hills sits at just over 600' elevation...

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3 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Be on lookout tomorrow eve for some mesolows coming off the lakes me be one near roc in evening.

Yeah, i saw that on the meso models. Hey Tim, what do you think for some locations? I'm gonna give it a stab. This is a good early start.

Buf-5"

Niag-7"

Roc-9"

Irondequoit-8" (me)- a bit too close to the lake

Walworth-9"

Syr-11"

Fulton-14"

Williamson-12"

That's total through Thurs AM

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3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

We had one last year, dumped about 6” in a couple hours..

F7C399D1-300F-46CF-8C14-CD8710807128.jpeg

Yep. I was in a meso two years ago. It looked like the NIKE swirl. It came on shore with me just on the west side of it. You could literally watch the snow accumulate. Like, hold out your hand for 30 seconds and get it completely covered. Visibility was about 25 feet. Madness. No thunder though. 

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