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Upstate/Eastern New York


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3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

It appears as everyonein WNY except Chautauqua co has been downgraded to a winter weather advisory for 4 to 8 inches from 7pm tonight through Wednesday afternoon. 

Southern Erie picked up a Lake Effect Snow Warning

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
107 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

NYZ012-019-020-085-120215-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0007.171212T0000Z-171213T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0010.171212T0300Z-171214T0000Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
107 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. A general snow tonight
  will transition to lake effect snow Tuesday. Travel will be
  very difficult at times. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 15
  inches are expected in the most persistent lake snows, with
  local amounts of up to 20 inches across the higher terrain of
  Chautauqua County.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
  counties. Greatest amounts across the higher terrain inland from
  Lake Erie.

* WHEN...10 PM today to 7 PM Wednesday. The period of heaviest
  snow accumulation is expected to be late Tuesday afternoon
  through Wednesday morning.
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7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Ukmet really showing good accums over Niag and Orl. Much better than previous run. (Oz vs: 12z)  Also, low tracks from Erie to Syr, a bit further south. It then wraps into a blockbuster over NE Ontario.970 LP..,

IMG_4068.PNG

IMG_4069.PNG

I stand by my earlier call of 7 to 10 for buffalo airport north and east withel heavier pockets niagara and Orleans county. Ukmet has buffalo north at .7 liquid equivalent which would translate to those totals easily with the snow ratio Tuesday night and Wednesday at 15 or 20 to 1.

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I can see KBGM just going with advisories other than for Oneida county...synoptic portion of clipper likely plagued by a few issues that prevent reaching anywhere near warning criteria and total accums are stretched over 48-60 hours making this a lower impact (thinking Syracuse general area in CNY). But we'll see.

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