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Upstate/Eastern New York


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2 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Rochester Dave wrote this;

"Note the hvy axis north of I90. Oswego looks nice. Also probably early enhancement over Niagara. 

We shall see. I do wonder if some of those 1" amts aren't sleet returns (but it's tot precip-so idk)". 

Why do you Wonder Dave? 

  nam_2017121100_039_43.14--76_38.thumb.png.b6d18e9acffe1ae981ce02129f522921.png    

 

 

nam_2017121100_042_43.36--76_25.thumb.png.5c2183b3fff9190ccf48410b6a9d93f1.png

Please explain to me how these two soundings from 15Z and 18Z Tuesday show a mix with sleet, and I'm serious?  Do you even know what a Sleet sounding looks like?  That's a serious question too?  Can you interpret the parameters?  This easily answers your questions about sleet very easily! Just off the deck at around H925-H950 which is basically the surface, at or > freezing but it doesn't matter cause it's virtually on the ground!

When I see something that doesn't make much sense to me, and then I do research to back it up, and I turn out to be correct through science, I will speak up!

H850 off the 12K NAM!

nam_z850_uv_t_ne_14.thumb.png.554b56da94da8b6948c0a5562da66bad.png

I'm trying to figure out how it ip/sleets with H850's between -4-6C!

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First off. Relax. Second, I have no idea how to read a sounding. 

But thanks for the self righteous sermon. It was fascinating. 

A more pleasant approach might be: "the soundings simply don't show it, they don't get warm enough at any level". 

Often times, with a storm tracking directly overhead, a mix is possible. And often times, when a model depicts 1.5" totals 50 miles from .5" totals, it's do to sleet. 

I didn't check the 700's because I wasn't that concerned. 

So bottom line is chill bro, or look up how to mute my ass. 

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I sounded self righteous, lol, wow you have very thin skin my friend as it was a constructive post showing you that, through a sounding you can clearly see that IP/SLeet is not really a possibility.  You can interpret it how ever you wanna interpret it, but go into New England and post something like that and you would of been crucified, or better yet, the post would of been deleted by a mod, but we don't have one.  That's why all these weatherbell graphics can be shown in here because no one cares, but go post it in another Sub Forum and you will get called out.

Good idea, Ill ignore your input, no problem, lol!

 

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2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Yeah wayyyy over done. No way that widespread of an area sees 8-12” more like 3-6”, maybe 4-8” in WNY besides the upslope/lake effect on the Chautauqua Ridge...

I actually disagree slightly, the clipper will deliver 3 to 6 area wide but the backside synopti moisture will be enhanced by huron and ontario from buffalo north and northeastward.  These types of events tend to keep snow falling over these areas when the storm pulls away...i think and additional 2 or 3 inches is perfectly acceptable bringing the 2+ day totals to 7 to 10 inches or so. The winds will be strong so the effects from the 3 lakes will be well in play.

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Just now, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Perhaps the wrap around/LE is included?

Yes I think so since the map goes to 7pm Wednesday but I still don’t think everyone sees that much widespread in WNY. There will likely be a low spot in the areas that just got hammered by this past lake effect event. Whenever there is a N flow/wrap around enhancement the Southtowns always have the lowest totals. North of Buffalo even into the nearby suburbs like Amherst, Tonawanda, Kenmore, may see some higher totals and then once you get north into Niagara/Orleans County that’s where I can see 8-12” for sure. If I had to guess I call for 6.5” at KBUF, 5” here in West Seneca over to OP and Hamburg, then 8” in Amherst and Tonawanda to 12” in Lockport. 

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4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I actually disagree slightly, the clipper will deliver 3 to 6 area wide but the backside synopti moisture will be enhanced by huron and ontario from buffalo north and northeastward.  These types of events tend to keep snow falling over these areas when the storm pulls away...i think and additional 2 or 3 inches is perfectly acceptable bringing the 2+ day totals to 7 to 10 inches or so. The winds will be strong so the effects from the 3 lakes will be well in play.

I agree north of Buffalo looks good, but south of Buffalo will not see 8-12”, not until you get to Boston Hills southward.... we’ll see, either way it’ll be nice to add to the 15” OTG here. 

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Well that was a top 10 weather event of my life.  Since the early 90's I've dreamed about going to a game in just those conditions.  It was everything I could have hoped for and more.  By the time we got home last night I was too gassed to post anything. 

Anyway, the number of people who were wildly under dressed was startling.  Saw tons of people with just jeans, sneakers, and a light jacket, it was unbelievable.  I don't know how they lasted as long as they did but by mid way through the third quarter there was a mass exodus of frozen people leaving.    Since I had a decent idea this might happen I was dressed for the apocalypse and was quite comfortable all game.  Thankfully I threw my ski goggles into the truck just before I left.  They were an absolute life saver and arguably the most important gear to making the game more enjoyable. I only saw a handful of people that had them on too.  

Highlights of the game were obviously the first and second quarter with the heaviest snow, but the two major (and super close) lightning strikes were the icing on the cake.  Both thunderclaps were less than 2 seconds after the flash so it was loud and close! Spent some time pushing people out of the lot after the game and then we were on our way.  
 

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18 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Delta, great post. How did people react with the lightning strikes?

 

There was so much mayhem that not many people even realized what they saw or heard.  The one Thunderclap did seem to initiate some cheering though.  It took a somewhat trained eye to realize it was a lightning flash when its snowing that hard and the thunder is a bit muffled too. 

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19 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Was it difficult getting out of the stadium?

Depends where you were and what you were driving but yes there were issues.  .  Lots of drunk rowdy people were ready to push cars though, so teamwork resolved most of the issues of people failing to get traction in the lots.  Route 20 (Southwestern Blvd) has a steep section heading North right when you leave the lots.   The stop and go traffic on a fairly steep hill was causing some major issues for a couple cars that obviously had bad tires, they were basically sliding back down the hill sideways at times.  My truck has studded snows and 420lbs in the back, I cruised right out.  

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3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Just noticed a bit if a change to the WSW verbiage for Northern Erie...earlierthe amount was 8+" possible by Wednesday, it has since changed to 10+" possible through Wednesday. 

Yes, they merged all the counties into a single update to the 10+ version. Makes sense based on their snow map and less complex as well.

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I'm very interested to see how this next system plays out.  Nothing comes to mind as a good example for what to expect (i.e., not a standard clipper or low approaching from the southwest).  Looks like a seriously mean piece of energy diving down from the upper Midwest with a Low pressure strengthening/consolidating nearby.  Maybe a surprise or 2 in store with this...

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8 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

I'm very interested to see how this next system plays out.  Nothing comes to mind as a good example for what to expect (i.e., not a standard clipper or low approaching from the southwest).  Looks like a seriously mean piece of energy diving down from the upper Midwest with a Low pressure strengthening/consolidating nearby.  Maybe a surprise or 2 in store with this...

I'm guessing this will over-perform based on the dynamics, warm lakes, and weenie-wishing.

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16 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Looks like the LP will end up right over WNY (or just a tad south)...

 

lowtrack_ensembles.gif

We want it to go just south of us. If it travels directly over we will get more warmth and possible dry slot. Strongest lift and Highest snowfall rates will be in northwestern portion of where low travels as it intensifies.

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12gfs is pretty decent for several reasons.  Sfc low looks to hug the state line (So that's still trending in the right direction), but 850's do get a little warmer than I like to see.  Wouldnt be surprised to see a touch of mixing along the Southern tier into the fingerlakes but that should be short lived though.  The backside wrap around looks like an absolute KROC special.  A solid 12-18 hours of nearly perfect conditions for lake effect as the low deepens and hangs up North of Vermont.    

Looking further out, the warmup this weekend is nearly gone with only a transient and very fast warm shot.  Even further out the longwave seems to re-establish itself without us going through too large of a warmup.  We may hold this snowpack for quite awhile.  

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WRF-NMM just crushing south shore. Especially eastern Monroe-Oswego. Somebody gets 18"+. 

Basically every meso model picking up on that stripe. 

The synoptic still looks touch and go. I guess that Low wants to cross over us or slightly north. As I've mentioned, I'm not gonna be surprised to see some sleet.

IMG_4067.PNG

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