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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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From RAH:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 PM Tuesday...

The first half of the long term forecast looks fairly quiet but
certainly cool for this time of year through Saturday. Dry weather
is expected with temperatures only topping out in the upper 40s to
low 50s with a warmup coming on Saturday as we might get some
southerly return flow around a Bermuda High ahead that will surge
temps up towards 60 degrees.

The next weather maker for central NC will come in the form of a low
pressure system forming over the Mississippi Valley and heading due
east across Tennessee and across the Appalachians. Model agreement
has been hard to come by with this system because there are many
factors at play including a very strong exiting low off the coast of
New England, the low in the MS valley and potentially a third coming
out of Canada with high pressure squeezed in between all three in
addition to the Bermuda High. Any or all of these features could be
a major player in how the forecast evolves over the next several
days. Currently it does look like we can expect precipitation
beginning on Saturday night and lasting through at least Sunday
night, maybe longer if the northern low materializes. For now
forecasting all liquid but will have to keep an eye on the situation
as thicknesses begin to flirt with values that could potentially
bring some winter P-types into play although it is very premature to
say exactly what that might be.


Things will generally clear out for the first part of the work week,
especially heading into Tuesday but temperatures will still be below
normal with highs in the low to mid 50s and lows in the low to mid
30s.
 

 

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8 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

If the UKMET was about 75 miles south, whoa.

 

Yep it wouldn't take much over the next few days. Even a closer call big frosty. I'm begging to think the mtns at the least have the potential to have their biggest storm of the season. Espeacilly northern mtn counties. See if the euro can get on board here in a few.

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1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

Yep it wouldn't take much over the next few days. Even a closer call big frosty. I'm begging to think the mtns at the least have the potential to have their biggest storm of the season. Espeacilly northern mtn counties. See if the euro can get on board here in a few.

Do have any of the precip maps for the 12z UKMET?

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9 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said:

Do have any of the precip maps for the 12z UKMET?

Their juicy no doubt:

Heres the GFS at 12z. futher north than ukmet. Its posted in mtn thread. You want ULL to go underneath you. Obviously UKMET is prefered track and we need it a little nudge futher south. But its wrapped up no doubt.

500hv.conus.png

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15 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Heres the UKIE. well see where it all stands at in 24hrs:

 

53e916fd69aa1228f4c5d2ecc0c13690.jpg

 

Awesome thanks, I'll take that look. Even with the latest trends though, I'm not sold on temperatures cooperating for even us in the mountains. 

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12z Euro moves toward the Ukie GFS idea of a quicker phase. Euro is much farther south with the surface low, but a blend of the LP track from all 3 would bode well for a good portion of NC imo.


.

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12z Euro moves toward the Ukie GFS idea of a quicker phase. Euro is much farther south with the surface low, but a blend of the LP track from all 3 would bode well for a good portion of NC imo.


.

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SUNDAY/ MONDAY exactly 25 years ago , as I graced the hallow grounds of Cullowhee. I expeierenced my first true Blizzard and 1 foot plus snowfall. Will this Sun/ Mon event ring in the 25th yr anniversary of the great 1993 Superstorm with reminder of how great a wound up March storm can be?  

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11 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

SUNDAY/ MONDAY exactly 25 years ago , as I graced the hallow grounds of Cullowhee. I expeierenced my first true Blizzard and 1 foot plus snowfall. Will this Sun/ Mon event ring in the 25th yr anniversary of the great 1993 Superstorm with reminder of how great a wound up March storm can be?  

If so, I sure hope it's a little farther east. I got less than 2" while folks to my west were buried.  

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49 minutes ago, Hvward said:

12z Euro moves toward the Ukie GFS idea of a quicker phase. Euro is much farther south with the surface low, but a blend of the LP track from all 3 would bode well for a good portion of NC imo.


.

Really gets southside VA this run. 

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13 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

and it's closer than it looks for places from Morganton to Winston.

Taken verbatim, what does it show for Southside VA?

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57 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

SUNDAY/ MONDAY exactly 25 years ago , as I graced the hallow grounds of Cullowhee. I expeierenced my first true Blizzard and 1 foot plus snowfall. Will this Sun/ Mon event ring in the 25th yr anniversary of the great 1993 Superstorm with reminder of how great a wound up March storm can be?  

yes sir I remember it well.  Was 21 years old plowing on a tractor with no cab LOL.  Came a long way since then

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1 hour ago, POWERSTROKE said:

yes sir I remember it well.  Was 21 years old plowing on a tractor with no cab LOL.  Came a long way since then

Amazing how time flies as I keep counting the B-Days. Seems like yesterday in my mind along with alot of other things. Cant imagine our wx boards during a superstorm1993 or Carolina crusher event. Heck even all those late 90's cat 3 LFs on our coast.

Anyway we need some more wiggling and luck outside mtns in NC, buts its just as doable as it is undoable. next 2 to 3 (12hr) model cycles will be telling. Maybe we can all get one more bump from winter before the sweat season locks in for 6 months.

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Happy Hour GFS delivers. Its way futher south than it was 12z. Need this thing to rev up UKIE like. Not worried about it climbing North as the confluence should keep it suppressed. But we need it to amp big time so we can cool the column.

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2 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

SUNDAY/ MONDAY exactly 25 years ago , as I graced the hallow grounds of Cullowhee. I expeierenced my first true Blizzard and 1 foot plus snowfall. Will this Sun/ Mon event ring in the 25th yr anniversary of the great 1993 Superstorm with reminder of how great a wound up March storm can be?  

Like NJ banging out 15-20" in just a few hours today?  Yeah, I want one of those March storms.....not.  Not here in the Triad anyway.  It would be lights out, tree destruction, flower slaughtering mayhem given how warm it has been.  Agreed that March storms can sometimes wind up to beast mode.  I would just prefer that happen on a winter that has been chilly thru Feb to keep the buds dormant.

Thank God I cancelled my trip to NYC today.  Hammer time up there!

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Cold rain,Maybe some snow at the end, As of now!! 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain in the evening,
then rain likely after midnight. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of
rain 60 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Rain. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of rain 80 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a chance of snow. Rain, mainly in the
evening. Lows around 30. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of snow in the morning. Highs in
the upper 40s. Chance of snow 50 percent. 

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33 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Happy Hour GFS delivers. Its way futher south than it was 12z. Need this thing to rev up UKIE like. Not worried about it climbing North as the confluence should keep it suppressed. But we need it to amp big time so we can cool the column.

Yeah, 18z was a central/northern mtn special right there.  A deep diving upper wave makes sense with the western ridge spike and cutoff low east of Maine.  -NAO and a south trend...we've seen it before

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4 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

Amazing how time flies as I keep counting the B-Days. Seems like yesterday in my mind along with alot of other things. Cant imagine our wx boards during a superstorm1993 or Carolina crusher event. Heck even all those late 90's cat 3 LFs on our coast.

Anyway we need some more wiggling and luck outside mtns in NC, buts its just as doable as it is undoable. next 2 to 3 (12hr) model cycles will be telling. Maybe we can all get one more bump from winter before the sweat season locks in for 6 months.

I won't say who called this several weeks ago.  They mentioned the possibility when everybody laughed.  We shall see if they are right 

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5 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

Happy Hour GFS delivers. Its way futher south than it was 12z. Need this thing to rev up UKIE like. Not worried about it climbing North as the confluence should keep it suppressed. But we need it to amp big time so we can cool the column.

18z further south than the 12z? 

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10 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said:

18z further south than the 12z? 

MA thread is currently pooping their pants at the thought of this being suppressed to the south of them.  I would kind of hate that, though.  Outside the Mountains, it's too late for us to do anything with this except get some cold rain, with maybe some wet flakes mixed in.  I would almost rather throw it to them so they can actually do something with it.

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23 minutes ago, JoshM said:

GFS Clown Map trying to reel me in!

gfs_asnow_seus_23.png

yeah just saw that. This is very interesting, but even if we can get the snow line (storm) south there will be all the normal issues (air temp, surface temp, etc.). I would say for folks outside the mountains a win would be just seeing snow fall from the sky.    

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