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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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51 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Of course, and no cold in sight. This area is absolutely maddening for a winter weather lover!!! I'm still hopeful we can work something out last week of Feb, first week of Mar.

Atleast it's starting to look like a Niña! :(

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8 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

The GFS lr would be hard pressed to look a lot worse for cold and snow in the east.  MJO phase 8 sucks.

That's the thing though, I don't think its going to make it to phase 8.  It will do loop-de-loops in phase 7 until spring.

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44 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

That's the thing though, I don't think its going to make it to phase 8.  It will do loop-de-loops in phase 7 until spring.

Probably, knowing our luck.

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48 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Next years supposed to be a Nino, I'm all in! :(

Aren't weak Nino's statistically good for us (or at least less bad).

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3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Aren't weak Nino's statistically good for us (or at least less bad).

Yes. Active southern stream. Better than relying on a clipper closing off 

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4 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Wow, this thread got quiet...... (crickets). Not to worry it will get active shortly.

Yeah lots of rain to chase this week! Counting yesterday, and the upcoming Wed and this Weekends event, I could be closing in on 6"+ of much needed Rain 

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6 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

Yep wish it would snow as often or easy as it rains.  Hope there is another snowstorm or two to chase/follow.

The mountains probably have a decent chance at something else before the winter's over.

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It's only Feb 5th.... There will be another event to track you can count on it. Yesterday's event was just enough to get me back in the winter mood. Stayed below freezing for the entire event. The LR indices look good this morning for the second half of Feb. Look for those fantasy storms to start showing back up.

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Sudden Stratwarm means wild ride into March , Winter has a long way to go Analog packages from FALL still looking pretty good SOI crash starting now ( BTW likely the first hit to the body of the NINA, modoki nino should develop fall/winter) - JB's twitter.

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Just looking at the GFS and euro out to day 10, and they don't show much hope. Indices don't look as good either. Not giving up hope, but we'll need the pattern to at least be in the process of switching to a favorable configuration by mid month to give us hope for a late season widespread storm threat.

There have been significant winter storms through the month of March, but climo would indicate that most folks outside of mountain areas have until around March 5th. We need to start seeing hints at a pattern change very soon (maybe the strat warming...).     

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44 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

With looks like this, winter would be over! Here's anothe fab Feb and were chasing unicorn SSW again! :(

Did you get any ice with this last storm?

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10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Did you get any ice with this last storm?

Not one icicle IMBY! It was sad

but it must have poured at some point! Lots of bigger than normal puddles and runoff! Should have put a smile on Shetleys face! I think I saw him post that he got a glaze on tree tops 

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1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

It's only Feb 5th.... There will be another event to track you can count on it. Yesterday's event was just enough to get me back in the winter mood. Stayed below freezing for the entire event. The LR indices look good this morning for the second half of Feb. Look for those fantasy storms to start showing back up.

Fallslake, this seems to conflict with your statement? Not trying to stir the pot, just wondering what different things y'all are seeing?

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4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Fallslake, this seems to conflict with your statement? Not trying to stir the pot, just wondering what different things y'all are seeing?

I'm only looking out to 10 days on LR models. Everything past that is garbage. The indices this morning look ok but not as good as the past days.

Just stating my opinion that we need to see movement towards a favorable pattern by day 10. Right now I'm not seeing it.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

  

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26 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Not one icicle IMBY! It was sad

but it must have poured at some point! Lots of bigger than normal puddles and runoff! Should have put a smile on Shetleys face! I think I saw him post that he got a glaze on tree tops 

Mack I woke up at sunrise and there was a light glaze on trees and bushes, which was quickly washed away by 32.5 degree rain by 9:00 :( 

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2 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Sudden Stratwarm means wild ride into March , Winter has a long way to go Analog packages from FALL still looking pretty good SOI crash starting now ( BTW likely the first hit to the body of the NINA, modoki nino should develop fall/winter) - JB's twitter.

 

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IMO outside of the mountains, winter is done in the SE. The overall pattern the next 10 days is typical Nina for February with cutter after cutter and the cold confined in Canada. Also, ensembles agree that the cold will head back to Siberia and stay through through the end of the run. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a cool March like in recent years but snow chances are pretty much done based on what models indicate happening the next 10 days.

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