ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Euro looking a bit better again too. Again, not the bigger Miller B that was depicted a couple days ago but trying to redevelop that clipper a bit so we could definitely still get an advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Not sure who you mean by "we" but via gyx and wpc it looks a bit better up this way, maybe a solid 4-8 incher? Could also be one of those modeled storms that disappears a bit and then comes back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro looking a bit better again too. Again, not the bigger Miller B that was depicted a couple days ago but trying to redevelop that clipper a bit so we could definitely still get an advisory event. Yeah seems like a 2-4 or 3-6” event is in play . Also long range muted a bit which isn’t surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Not sure who you mean by "we" but via gyx and wpc it looks a bit better up this way, maybe a solid 4-8 incher? Could also be one of those modeled storms that disappears a bit and then comes back. I don't really see much guidance that shows solid warning snows for anyone...maybe northern Maine? Maybe with 20 to 1 ratios which is certainly plausible...but you wouldn't forecast those at this lead time. It could def keep trending better though. Still 3 days out. What I mean in my post is that the bigger Miller B idea phasing another shortwave in looks to be off the table. This looks like a one shortwave deal...little clipper redeveloper. Those can still pack a little surprise sometimes though so we watch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Fair enough. Maybe the wpc headline and gy x made me too optimistic. But I did notice 12z Euro had good qpf up this way. Ihooe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah seems like a 2-4 or 3-6” event is in play . Also long range muted a bit which isn’t surprising Muted warm-up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 The gfs was a little better too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, LurkerBoy said: Muted warm-up? one run shouldn't sway anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 10 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said: Muted warm-up? YeaYes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 11 hours ago, dendrite said: Another Beach Boy Christmas in shorts. Would take it this year. Pats tickets Christmas Eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Dang cold on Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Dang cold on Wednesday We dang? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: YeaYes Dude the kid is going to have a stroke. Don't tell him that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Dude the kid is going to have a stroke. Don't tell him that lol. Leo in Nova Scotia is worried about what the pattern will be for Groundhog Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Dude the kid is going to have a stroke. Don't tell him that lol. Well only one run but at least it stops the bleeding for now anyway. Obviously a relaxation , but if we can just avoid a furnace we can Salvage a white Xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Leo and Lurker need to get an apt together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Not sure if it's a fake out, but the EPS popped a massive ridge on the west coast later in the 11-15 day. That is one way to mute a mild up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Leo and Lurker need to get an apt together. I hope the walls are padded with only plastic utensils. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2017 Author Share Posted December 9, 2017 It'll be interesting to see the overnight, GEFS -derived teleconnector layout from the CDC and CPC. Yesterday's complexion of those certainly featured room and reason for this so called "Grinch" storm that seems to eerily formulate its self from the ether every year, as other's have succinctly pointed out...with stunning clock-work dependency. Then, we click ahead twelve to eighteen hours from yesterday, and the operational runs puked out charts that are like a big-brother flicking our ears when dad's not watching. Before that happens ...there are two distinct time periods of interesting over this next week, which others surely have noted: Tuesday morning and overnight Thursday into Friday morning. My less than savory take (assuming the audience in this case...) is that both will have relative potency in the flow that unfortunately ... will still have to content with moving through a gradient/velocity rich domain space prior to their arrival... About that ... I really wish people ubiquitously understood why that's a problem, and why this whole pattern's "look," as well as the "I'll take my chances.." mantra were both foolish and probably stubborn in a lot of ways. But, you know ... try to explain anything to a group where said explanation does not actually perpetuate the chosen doctrine is probably equally a fool's errand, too. It goes for me too - really.. I know this crap is true, but even I play head-games because I would certainly like a nice seasonal augmenting event here. I mean ... I saw the NAM solutions and frankly, we don't crunch Navier-Stokes in our minds. That's what the supercomputers are for... The "correction vector," however, was in fact always pointed toward less in this synoptic circumstance, much in the same way it will still be pointed as we peer ahead through next week. The reality is, this pattern is a dog... and was from the get-go. ...and will remain so, until such time as the torque budget/ballast is given back to the shorter wave-length spaces. Having the gradient saturation and consequential screaming maelstrom all the way up to planetary wave scales, ...it just takes too much mechanical ability away from cyclogenesis. You end up with weaker smears that narrow conduits of action... Until that time, people will get giddy from faux precedence, and then be exquisitely set up by yo-yo antics in the models to maximize their frustration as though the whole thing was done on purpose. I guess the course of lesser regret is to recognize limitations and then wait to be pleasantly surprised, should those limitations appear overwhelming. Ha, but then you get into filtering/biases of the eyes that don't 'look' for those limitation, or rationalize them when they see them. Digression over... It doesn't mean Tuesday and Friday won't happen ..blah blah blah, come on... One should know we are talking limitations, not absolutes and/or heretic to the love of snow-gods here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Would take it this year. Pats tickets Christmas Eve My nephew and his gf are going, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 John, I wouldn't say that the pattern is a "dog", but agree that it's not ideally situated to engineer blockbuster events by our standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 50 degree rain for Tuesday, CC Canal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Friday is looking ok too. Could be another advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 minute ago, WxBlue said: Friday is looking ok too. Could be another advisory event. Yeah Friday could have some upside too. There's a chance that one could dig a lot deeper than Tuesday...I'm hoping maybe we get our Miller B but just 3 days delayed from what we originally were hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 It’s a nickel and dime pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxBlue said: Friday is looking ok too. Could be another advisory event. Get the vort to dig deeper and it could be more. Certainly correctable at this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9, 2017 Author Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: John, I wouldn't say that the pattern is a "dog", but agree that it's not ideally situated to engineer blockbuster events by our standards. yeah, that's probably fair enough, Ray - but, I'm also annoyed that we've had three winters ...well, two, and now a month so far of this one, with a western ridge, eastern trough but had to deal with this saturated gradient providing too much velocities, so much of that time. It's like a big COC tease that won't stop, rubbing it in... I realize we may or may not have been in stone's throw of average winter expression for the duration ... not arguing. But, hiding one's head in that sand is "bargaining" ? ...it's like not admitting being boned... But that's all the emotional, personal druthers and annoyances crap. that stuff aside ... we just have to maintain a vigil to not get one's hopes up in any mid or extended range so long as that is that is all the case ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: It’s a nickel and dime pattern. I'll take a nickle on Tuesday on top of what might only be a two-pence today in GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 We don't toss GFS. Prob its best look in a while. Redevelops the clipper south of SNE. Gives a lot of this forum advisory snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 9, 2017 Share Posted December 9, 2017 Tuesday looking more and more serviceable for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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