ShawnEastTN Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wurbus said: Meanwhile.....CMC says what storm thru 120. Yep either GFS is on an island or its going to score a coup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, ShawnEastTN said: Yep either GFS is on an island or its going to score a coup... Not on an island yet...as the Euro has not run. But I trust the GFS like Caesar should have trusted Brutus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 We'll see if the other models come on board with the GFS or if it is just teasing us, again! Clown map for GFS doesn't get much better than this for most of the forum area though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Huge difference in in qpf for the forum for this event. 4-8" for most some higher elevations a foot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 CMC has the storm but sends it OTS and then sends the forum into the freezer. Anyone good w -17 in NE TN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Whoa!!! CMC misses storms and jackpots cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, *Flash* said: CMC smells all kind of fishy to me... Indeed. You know...I keep saying this. Pay me now or pay me later. If the system comes in like the GFS it snows...if it hangs back(maybe a different piece of energy even) the CMC sends it OTS but drives the cold behind it. Both models show some type of coastal. If anything goes up the coast w those big high pressures behind it...could be record cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 The GFS is also showing BN temps again....snow or no, man it looks crazy cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 GFS cold: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 ...and the CMC is not finished. Coldest run that I have seen in a long time for the forum area. GFS is no tame lion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 If either of those models is correct, IMO there would be clippers in those patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 CMC has no precip at all for a good portion of the forum for the 10 day. I can guarantee it's wrong on those temps, I don't think it can get that cold without snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Agree with John on the CMS temps, the GFS moderates it a bit with the lack of snow cover. That made me go look at the current snow pack maps, and generally It seems I remember a lot of times a storm system likes to follow just south of the current snow pack. Interesting that if the GFS is correct with its storm placement it would be just south of the current snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 I'll take this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Slight differences make a big difference. The CMC digs slightly less. The GFS digs more. The CMC energy phases in early but juices the northern stream. It forms a big 500 vortex that crashes South and spawns the storm off the coast. The GFS digs and the confluence is later. That basically forms a massive frontal boundary that is loaded with energy. Here is the deal...we need to know if that energy is real. IMO, it will be tough to get that energy across the continent without some type of mischief. Throwing fuel on a fire type deal. As for temps....this air mass is modeled to be freakishly cold. The models have been spitting out massive highs for almost a week or more. IMO, the severe cold is a given across the northern border of the US. It does not take much energy on any run to coax that cold southward. The fact that these models are so cold without snow tells us how cold that air mass is. The pic on the left is the GFS and the pic on the right is the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 WPC's morning discussion say they are discounting GFS due to its wild swings, and relying on Euro/UKMet blend, and discounting CMC past 5 days, as well as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 14 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: WPC's morning discussion say they are discounting GFS due to its wild swings, and relying on Euro/UKMet blend, and discounting CMC past 5 days, as well as the NAM. I tend to agree. It has been really bad...maybe the worst I have seen it. But the CMC and GFS are not much different above. Bob Chill mentioned in the MA forum (must read) that the disturbance is in the Arctic/northern Canada, not coming off the Pacific. It is poorly sampled. Indeed, the GFS is on an island with its digging solution. Now my take is this....the 12z UKMET is in, and I can't decipher much without a precip map. It looks more like the 0z Euro and 12z CMC. If the 12z Euro holds serve...time to toss the GFS for this run. That said, the GFS has been somewhat consistent showing this storm...and it is usually progressive and not amped. I do think the 84-144 time frame has nice potential....just no way to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Well that's 3 solid runs for GFS, let's see if the others start to fall in line, CMC is getting there, just lighter on Qpf! I'll take that last run on the GFS and twice on Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 If you get a chance to read Bob Chill's original post and Usetobe's response...well worth your time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 12z Euro is rolling...not digging in the NW like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z Euro is rolling...not digging in the NW like the GFS. Totally different evolution at 500, but pretty big differences within itself by 120 as well..... Trust no model outside day 3.... ISH.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 D8-10 on the 12z Euro looks interesting w a big bowling ball coming out of the SW. Still, looks to me like the Euro is too fast breaking down the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 26, 2017 Author Share Posted December 26, 2017 Looks like it's gonna be an interesting week. Plenty of time between now and the 1st for things to trend either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Goodness... is their something wrong with Tapatalk again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 I know it is the NAM at range...but hour 78 on the 18z looks like the 12z GFS in the Northwest...and very different from other global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Euro 1st map has the system, but surppressed. GFS second map.Both are for 1-1-18 with the 0Z maps.Least we have something to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Goodness... is their something wrong with Tapatalk again?It was wonky earlier this morning on my phone, but working fine now on an iPad. Haven’t checked phone lately Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Sorry for being off topic but does anyone ever get random pop up ads when going to this site? It happens on all my devices Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 6 minutes ago, Will (little rock) said: Sorry for being off topic but does anyone ever get random pop up ads when going to this site? It happens on all my devices Which site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will (little rock) Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, jaxjagman said: Which site? The Americanwx site, happens every once in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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