Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 The 0z CMC, though suppressed, is a significant improvement this run because it caves to the GFS in the NW. Loop it until it hits NYC. If those systems adjust like tomorrow's did(northward), look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 7 minutes ago, John1122 said: I think we'll see it move more and more towards the Euro/CMC/UKIE. One thing to note, it's to not take any storm as remotely serious beyond 5 days. It's crazy that the models get major upgrades and seemingly get worse at forecasting. The GFS used to have a reliable bias within 7 days, and that was a NW trend, it rarely had the issues it seems to have these days. This year it's just lost most of the time. Also the Euro has served up day 7 megastorms a couple of times already only to fall completely flat. I guess there's truly never going to be a way to be particularly accurate with micro details beyond 3-4 days. Not a huge fan of brown ground and bone rattling cold but we can only live with the weather we get. The last significant storm that wnc cashed in on had a nice NW trend, obviously not enough to get us in the game, but it was there, about 25 miles a day for 5 or so days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, John1122 said: In that are of Kansas the record pressures are 1048-1052. Yeah,i'm just saying where do you start?The SOI is more in a Nino pattern,if that HP is that extreme drops down i'd think we'd be looking at negative values in the Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 That I can find these are the high pressure records in the states where the GFS is pushing this mega high. 1054 is the record high pressure for the state of Kansas. 1058 is the record for North Dakota. 1056 for South Dakota. 1063 for Montana which is the lower 48 record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: That I can find these are the high pressure records in the states where the GFS is pushing this mega high. 1054 is the record high pressure for the state of Kansas. 1058 is the record for North Dakota. 1056 for South Dakota. 1063 for Montana which is the lower 48 record. Thanks,i was about to Google it,that would be a record for Nebraska.Impressive still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1049 appears to be the record high pressure in Tennessee. The angle of the high should prevent that from happening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Approaching record territory for sure... http://hanfordsentinel.com/news/local/the-high-and-lows-of-air-pressure/article_7372ea6c-93ec-53b0-b634-860fa2a2678d.html "The highest pressure ever recorded in the lower 48 states occurred in December 1983 in Miles City, Montana, where it reached 1,064 mb, or 31.42 inHg, during a severe cold wave." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Approaching record territory for sure... http://hanfordsentinel.com/news/local/the-high-and-lows-of-air-pressure/article_7372ea6c-93ec-53b0-b634-860fa2a2678d.html "The highest pressure ever recorded in the lower 48 states occurred in December 1983 in Miles City, Montana, where it reached 1,064 mb, or 31.42 inHg, during a severe cold wave." Its odd how the euro only shows an elongated 1044 its last run,its not as cold but i didnt think the system would be that surrpressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 I bet the GEFS will be colder next run.Models miss the cold air dropping from Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Its odd how the euro only shows an elongated 1044 its last run,its not as cold but i didnt think the system would be that surrpressed The Euro did not have much model support at 12z after 150. It was on its own. Just looking at the 0z GFS...man, another shot of cold at 324. I really cannot reiterate enough, the 500 pattern on the GFS did not change much at 0z...but the CMC moved very much towards it prior to 84 at 500 in the northwest as did the RGEM. The surface was the difference...which is what matters. But the CMC moved toward the 12z GFS from yesterday...that is why it could land the big coastal on the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 I'm still impressed with the cold.Would love to see a snow storm but the potential pipe bursting cold is impressive,more like a half century ago..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 U know the 0z UKMET does not look as supressed to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The Euro did not have much model support at 12z after 150. It was on its own. Just looking at the 0z GFS...man, another shot of cold at 324. I really cannot reiterate enough, the 500 pattern on the GFS did not change much at 0z...but the CMC moved very much towards it prior to 84 at 500 in the northwest as did the RGEM. The surface was the difference...which is what matters. But the CMC moved toward the 12z GFS from yesterday...that is why it could land the big coastal on the EC. Its totally different.There is another storm that should effect us around the 3-4th,this is what the models shows.It surrpresses the 1st one,verywell might happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 The Euro has a storm at the end of the run,its right,there should be a system if the cold air doesnt suppress it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Just now, jaxjagman said: The Euro has a storm at the end of the run,its right,there should be a system if the cold air doesnt suppress it The UKMET at 0z...It also moved to the GFS in the NW as well. It digs into the NW and downstream it makes a big difference. It is north of its 12z run yesterday in relation to the GOM at 500. Can’t tell where the precip is after 72...anyone have those maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The UKMET at 0z...It also moved to the GFS in the NW as well. It digs into the NW and downstream it makes a big difference. It is north of its 12z run yesterday in relation to the GOM at 500. Can’t tell where the precip is after 72...anyone have those maps? I can only see 12z run so far for the 144 hr UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Was reading packebacker in the SE forum. Says that the UKIE, GFS, and the CMC all now get over the ridge. Only the Euro is left. That said...w three different results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Should be a system into the 1st week of Jan but the Euro looks to fast again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 33 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: I'm still impressed with the cold.Would love to see a snow storm but the potential pipe bursting cold is impressive,more like a half century ago..lol Definitely would be neat to see history made. Going to try to make it to the Euro run tonight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Great post by Roger Smith...all was not lost on the CMC and GFS runs as I have been saying. Not a bad look. Energy that moves from Washington into Colorado is ripe for mischief. Euro about to roll. We will know quickly if it is moving to get its PAC energy over the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Euro has been delayed due to a power outage per MillvilleWx in the MA forum....the Euro just does not want to cave. I take full responsibility...I stayed up for the first time this season and put the jinx on it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Euro has been delayed due to a power outage per MillvilleWx in the MA forum....the Euro just does not want to cave.Good to know. I think I was going nuts hitting refresh so many times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 2 minutes ago, 1234snow said: Good to know. I think I was going nuts hitting refresh so many times! No problem. Will stay up for a few more. On another note, where is everyone getting these nice precipitation maps for the UKMET past 72 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 The UKIE 144 precip map is a mirror image of the GFS OP. .10 in the mountains, dry for the rest of the forum. Same hole that the GFS had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Remarkable agreement on precip from the 00z suite. Almost mirror imaged of each other for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, John1122 said: The UKIE 144 precip map is a mirror image of the GFS OP. .10 in the mountains, dry for the rest of the forum. Same hole that the GFS had. Thanks, man. I was able to get a look on the SE forum. Still did not look overly bad at 500. At 120, there is plenty for this room to move if the models are over doing the cold. No snow on the ground. Normal trends to the north...just look at tomorrow and where it began the week. So, they are getting the energy over the ridge...just not consensus yet but w a trend to suppress for sure. I like that the models are getting energy now into the pattern. The big thing right now is the there is room for a storm where before there was not. Either way...the Euro is appears caput for tonight. I put the jinx on us. Great discussion today. Maybe we can reel one in before the cold breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: Remarkable agreement on precip from the 00z suite at 12z. Almost mirror imaged of each other for our region. Nice layout of the precipitation maps. You know, if we did not know the trend on the GFS precipitation map...we would like where those are. With about four days to go before the precipitation gets here and 3.5 for the Plains...I suspect those maps move a bit. I liked Roger Smith's comments that are linked above in the MA forum. Will be a good test of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 John, my understanding from reading the SE forum, is that the UKIE has precipitation over the SE where before it did not? Can you see a trend there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Euro seems to be the 2nd system to watch after New Years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Bunch of mix but lots to go by the look,map is 240 hrs,could be a nice hit THU 06Z 04-JAN 28.6 24.9 27.1 1.9 15005 0.00 0.00 97 THU 12Z 04-JAN 29.4 27.0 29.3 -1.4 14006 0.00 0.00 100 THU 18Z 04-JAN 32.5 29.3 32.4 14.5 14003 0.05 0.05 100 FRI 00Z 05-JAN 32.4 30.1 30.6 29.4 10004 0.19 0.12 100 FRI 06Z 05-JAN 31.2 30.5 31.1 30.8 04002 0.27 0.01 100 FRI 12Z 05-JAN 31.6 30.9 31.2 30.9 07002 0.09 0.02 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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