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Winter Speculation 17/18 -December Thread

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Dose Weeklies....wow....BN temps weeks 3-7.  Blocking up top.  Pattern shows some blocking developing from late November through much of December.  Going to pump the brakes this run as they have not been near this cold for previous runs.  Here is the snap shot of NA snow.   If those come to fruition, AMZ starts all winter threads from now on...LOL.  Look at that lake effect snow.  

IMG_1070.PNG

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That would definitely be an amazing start to winter. November holds the key imo. November temps seem to set up winter temps pretty nicely. Above average for November almost always ends up with warm winters, below average Novembers almost always end up with below normal winters.

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8 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

NMME went to a moderate Nina.DeJaVu 2016

 

Figured.  That Niña means business.  I am rolling w the -QBO.  I might go in the ditch...but I am going to ride with it.  I do think the base pattern is slightly AN w severe cold intruding at times.  I don't think this winter will be a tame lion like last winter.  But like I always say, seasonal forecasting should never be held against a forecaster as it is almost akin to guessing.

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Capital Wx Gang forecast for D.C.  Has some nuggets for this area as well.  Eastern forum areas will often get winter wx from storms that track to DC out of the GOM.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/11/07/capital-weather-gang-d-c-winter-outlook-colder-and-snowier-than-last-year-but-not-extreme/?utm_term=.ed7203a220ee#comments

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Yep, the chances are there for "something" occurring the week of Thanksgiving especially in the northern and higher elevated parts of the forum. Should things turn white I will more than happily post some pictures. :snowwindow: To my uneducated eye, things have seemed to be shaping up quite well in the models for the past week.

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Some of the biggest snowstorms have occurred in late November in this area. November 25-28 1950, the great Appalachian storm, produced 17" officially at the time for Pennington gap , here in Lee County with drifts covering automobiles completely. Elevated areas of the county received even more. Pennington is at the valley floor with an elevation averaging 1400 ft. . November 1951 and 52 each recorded major snowfalls. much of ne TN and SWVA received 1-2 feet from the nov. 18, 52 storm. Also. Nov. 26, 1977 a stalled arctic frontal boundary with a wave riding along it produced 11" in Jonesville, 12" Penn. gap and 16" Big Stone Gap. KTRI received only an inch as it was mixed precip. there. There were other Nov. Snowfalls as well, Nov. '54(4"+), Nov. '71(8") and Nov. '76(3"). I'm thinking '69 had some as well but not sure. There are others of which I would have to do more research.

 

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37 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

This Nina is east based, -QBO, & low solar.  2016 was central-based +QBO...its not dejavu. 

Yep.  The PDO might be a problem at some point.  I think though there are things this winter to balance out the negatives as you mention.  This winter will be a good test as several good indicators are pointing opposite directions.

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1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

I was just pointing out what the NMME was looking like.Wasn't looking at any particulars

NMME_ensemble_tmpsfc_season1.png  800×618 .png

My pic went huge for some reason

2.png

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Cold -QBO vs Nina SER engage in WWF cage match! Seriously, this weekend is a great preview of what I believe will be somewhat common. Northeast US sets record lows while the Valley gets merely brushed. Later in winter it will help NWFS though.

Unfortunately the cold pattern is likely the secondary one, with a warm dominant background possible. Still this winter should be an improvement over the last two.

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This guy has nailed the past two winters.  Here is his forecast from the general discussion thread.  Great read and always thought provoking as he has a tendency not to get trapped by group think.

 

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If nothing else, winters after 2020 should be normal or BN most of the time because 30 year averages will be skewed so far down. 

I hope his forecast is wrong but I wouldn't be surprised to see it correct. Still, we don't often have 3 straight uber warm years and the last two have been uber warm. But not much is normal any more.

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Isotherm has a good forecast. I am little colder but I'm still AN. For snow lovers a January 2006 would be a disaster! Long as the MJO jumps around we will have our cold periods even within a mild winter. Going optimistic, not 3 torches in a row.

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I liked the Weeklies tonight.  Overall pattern is ridge West, trough of varying degrees in the East, and a SER battling the trough.   Blocking up top.  Overall, that look is a good one and appears stable.  The snow mean is up for the entire forum area w everybody 2"+ w eastern areas pushing 4-8" in the valleys for the 46 day period ending the first week of January.  What is encouraging is that normal temps are modeled for late Dec and early Jan.  I won't post maps this time as the Weeklies are very consistent compared to past runs.  

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