Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 3 hours ago, Queencitywx said: There's a couple big dogs for the mid south and carolinas/va. huh. Have to think you all have a great CAD set-up at some point. Speaking of west of the Apps... looking at lots of precip hitting the base of a big cold high. The models IMO will miss the southern extent for ZR since the cold is shallow. Can't help but to be interested with the ingredients involved. Cold air damming on your side just seems sensible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Been a busy day. Just now getting to look at the afternoon sweet. The 12z EPS...frigid. Something I have noticed...around hour 120 all models have energy riding a wave. JMA, CMC, GFS, UKMET and Euro all have a variation. The way the front is slow and dragging through the GOM....there would not be much required to have a big storm. More in the game than yesterday. It is a weak sig, but that is a loaded look. Something to watch for the 0z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 The GFS finally got it right in that a storm isn't cutting into 1050 and 1045 highs. Likely still not far enough south with the cold push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Another nothing burger from the Euro. Cold...warm spike for a rainer...cold again. We warm up for 12-18 hours over a 5 day period and it just happens to be when a storm is passing by. We bottomed out in a similar pattern in maybe 2007 or 2008. Can't remember which but we had a parade of rainers with 2-3 cold days behind them and it seemed to go on for the entire winter. It also happened in the 1980s if I remember correctly. We'd had sub zero cold at times during that winter but it was generally rain then frigid only to warm up just enough for rain again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Another nothing burger from the Euro. Cold...warm spike for a rainer...cold again. We warm up for 12-18 hours over a 5 day period and it just happens to be when a storm is passing by. We bottomed out in a similar pattern in maybe 2007 or 2008. Can't remember which but we had a parade of rainers with 2-3 cold days behind them and it seemed to go on for the entire winter. It also happened in the 1980s if I remember correctly. We'd had sub zero cold at times during that winter but it was generally rain then frigid only to warm up just enough for rain again.Is the brief warm ups before storms because they are cutting or just return flow is that strong?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 It's possible this is one of those situations where ridging shown into the Hudson Bay area with cold underneath means the end game has a jet structure a little further south than shown on current modeling. If that can trend a little stronger as we head toward day 10 I think the upper mid-south will have a chance at something wintry. One thing is for sure, changes in modeling aren't going to just go away now that they are showing a more rainy than snowy solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 We finally know(I think...if the EPS is correct) that we have cold in play though the first week of the New Year...but the EPS was an odd run as it weakened anomalies across the globe like someone was playing w the graphics or tweaked it. Anyway, no more positively tilted troughs..,now they are leaning the other way at the top. 12z GFS is a great example....shows just how bad the models were late last week and over the weekend. I would not sweat the details right now. The trend I am seeing is blocking over the top, the EPO being realistically undercut, and trapping part of the PV on our side of the planet....in doing so it is shallowing out the trough here. Davis Straits has stronger heights. This run of the GFS is allowing stronger heights to build under the cold in response. By 144 the PV is trapped in Canada...no escaping over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 At 156...the 12z GFS looks like the 0z Euro. If so, it is about to send cold due SE out of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 GFS goes oddball again. 1058 high to the NW, 1049 to the NE, storm still manages to be a cutter/rainer. Shows some cold chasing moisture but that's the unicorn models often advertise but rarely does it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Wow at the cold on the CMC and GFS.....pay me now or pay me later. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Both the 12z CMC and the GFS trap the PV and send it south. The cutter that we all hate kicks the bottom of the trough out which reloads the pattern over western Canada...then it sends the whole thing SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Looks like it does this at least three times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 And the CMC is an Apps runner for two straight runs...close to a Miler A. Might call 0z a inland runner at 0z on the 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 The details to be ironed out....but if the CMC and GFS are to be believed at 12z(Euro looked similar out to 240)....there is agreement that cold is on the way. The 12z GFS and CMC have a ton of potential which is all that can be asked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 The details to be ironed out....but if the CMC and GFS are to be believed at 12z(Euro looked similar out to 240)....there is agreement that cold is on the way. The 12z GFS and CMC have a ton of potential which is all that can be asked.My only fear is we keep a storm out in the 10-15 day range perpetually, and they never really materialize. We have had bouts of that in previous years, though I refuse to become pessimistic because it is still only December.Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 I swear the GFS looks like it has a +PNA, -AO and -NAO and still cuts the storm into the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 14 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: My only fear is we keep a storm out in the 10-15 day range perpetually, and they never really materialize. We have had bouts of that in previous years, though I refuse to become pessimistic because it is still only December. Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk These changes are well within d10. I have barely looked past d10. Either the cutter stays flat and the cold empties here in waves...or it cuts and traps the PV under riffing over the top....and sends of south. Seems like our two options at this point. That is why I say pay me now or pay me later. The CMC on the 24th is not benign. It would be an understatement to say that I really liked those two runs. If the 12z Euro holds to its 0z...that would mean split flow undercutting an eastern trough w severe cold. It is almost like...do we want one good shot earlier or are willing to wait and see several....but hey at this latitude nothing is certain so I understand your concern totally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 24 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: These changes are well within d10. I have barely looked past d10. Either the cutter stays flat and the cold empties here in waves...or it cuts and traps the PV under riffing over the top....and sends of south. Seems like our two options at this point. That is why I say pay me now or pay me later. The CMC on the 24th is not benign. It would be an understatement to say that I really liked those two runs. If the 12z Euro holds to its 0z...that would mean split flow undercutting an eastern trough w severe cold. It is almost like...do we want one good shot earlier or are willing to wait and see several....but hey at this latitude nothing is certain so I understand your concern totally. As long as the GEFS keeps staying true to cold coming right after Christmas with no real let up that keeps me sane, Operational make one feel like you are going crazy. GEFS as you have mentioned has remained very consistent and that is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 52 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: These changes are well within d10. I have barely looked past d10. Either the cutter stays flat and the cold empties here in waves...or it cuts and traps the PV under riffing over the top....and sends of south. Seems like our two options at this point. That is why I say pay me now or pay me later. The CMC on the 24th is not benign. It would be an understatement to say that I really liked those two runs. If the 12z Euro holds to its 0z...that would mean split flow undercutting an eastern trough w severe cold. It is almost like...do we want one good shot earlier or are willing to wait and see several....but hey at this latitude nothing is certain so I understand your concern totally. What do you think the chances are that the models are too fast on the precepitation that's supposed to come through on the 23rdish? If we could get that pushed back say 18-24 hours, we might be in business. I was looking at the NAM3k and it showed Some ice accumulation from just north of DFW up to around Tulsa at Hr60. I just wonder if the NAM is picking up on some colder air moving in quicker then some of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 GEFS looks cold from Christmas through January 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Remember how the models a few days ago were hanging up the cold front on Christmas Day over middle TN. Buy 18z on the 25th, the 12z Euro has the front in Orlando. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 On 12/19/2017 at 12:06 PM, nrgjeff said: GFS Ensembles did not budge 12Z Tue. Still cold. Here is my thinking combining ensembles and weeklies. Looks like two weeks of cold, with a milder interlude or maybe just less strong cold within the two weeks. Weather system (maybe rain) is possible after Christmas. Perhaps another cold shot for New Year's. Early next week looks really cold a morning or two. Late next week system is possible, well actually likely somewhere, but many questions remain here. Models are juggling pieces of energy north and south, both track and relative timing. Pattern recognition puts another cold shot behind the said system. Ensembles do keep the 11-15 day cold. Weeklies have that third week (of New Year's) colder than normal. So I think two weeks of cold is reasonable. I phrased my comment wrong saying pattern change.Should have just said a warmer period.But like you said the GEFS is still cold and not even budging from much of any warm up.So by the looks the weeklies are to fast pulling the cold out in the first week of Jan.So i'll take one in the kisser...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 12z Euro is worth a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 43 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: What do you think the chances are that the models are too fast on the precepitation that's supposed to come through on the 23rdish? If we could get that pushed back say 18-24 hours, we might be in business. I was looking at the NAM3k and it showed Some ice accumulation from just north of DFW up to around Tulsa at Hr60. I just wonder if the NAM is picking up on some colder air moving in quicker then some of the other models. From the 24th after....no piece of energy can be ignored IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 We ALL ok w the 12z Euro, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfpfd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: We ALL ok w the 12z Euro, right? I'll cash in now. I hope the ensembles will be just as good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 12z Euro w a new look in the Pacific(so it is sketchy at best and is late in the run) sends a slider which turns into a Miller A up the coast. Buries a good portion of the entire forum area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z Euro w a new look in the Pacific(so it is sketchy at best and is late in the run) sends a slider which turns into a Miller A up the coast. Buries a good portion of the entire forum area. Yeah, but why cant it be 3-4 days out?Even the LLJ screams warm nose.It would definite be we found that needle in the haystack..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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