Post Christmas Bomb

[Logan11]

I dunno why people worry about qpf at this juncture. Just look at where the deformation is setting up etc. Even that is gonna change about five more times, but exact qpf totals are just fiction.

Not if the upper low is scooting along too. That trough diving down from Quebec picks up the whole system instead of allowing it to cut off for a while.

[Allsnow]

It looks like philly is around 0.70"...they get pretty good backlash,...NYC is maybe just shy of an inch...LI is easily over an inch. Coastal NJ looks near an inch...esp the southern half around ACY

Thanks...thats pretty similiar to what SV had this run....But like you said its all mute until 48 hrs out

[40/70 Benchmark]

I dunno why people worry about qpf at this juncture. Just look at where the deformation is setting up etc. Even that is gonna change about five more times, but exact qpf totals are just fiction.

Sure, but the idea of lower QPF makes sense because it is now progressive.

[A-L-E-X]

Thanks...thats pretty similiar to what SV had this run....But like you said its all mute until 48 hrs out

Yeah... this looks really similar to the 0z euro from last night in terms of qpf only, hopefully it holds:

qpf

phl .75

nyc 1-1.1

ttn .8

abe .5

rdg .4

hazleton .25

acy 1.5

dov .75

mmu .75

eastern li 1.5-1.75

central li 1.25-1.5

western li 1-1.25

[CoastalWx]

LOL, Ray jackpots with lower qpf. Hey, not a bad run at all. BOS is ice cold save for a few hours possibly.

[dryslot]

LOL, Ray jackpots with lower qpf. Hey, not a bad run at all. BOS is ice cold save for a few hours possibly.

Lets see if we get this scenario a few more cycles now.........

[Baroclinic Zone]

Bob is happy.

[BostonWX]

I made a first call of 3-8" 2 days ago and see no reason to stray from that, yet because the only model that implies more than that is fluctuating radically.

Fair enough but its trending higher than that for your back yard... Certainly not the 20 inches the Euro had earlier, but both the Euro and GFS have broadened the precip shield into CNE in the their most recent runs and seem to be converging (At least a little) on a solution. The 00z GFS gives you prob right around 8 inches, and its been trending NW. The Euro gives you closer to a foot or more. So maybe you can at least up your range a little

[ROOSTA]

I know this is exactly where we should be at this juncture. Really don't care if its progressive. The simple fact is BM and may I quote Fella "3ph's" either side is a huge hit. QPF will change. The meso model close in wil supply everyones post stocking to bust overflowing with wenies being chucked N,S and W. Baby steps, yup reality but look at where we are at and where this could go. I sleep happy and sound tonight.

Thanks to all. Always great discussions when storm is modeled.

Night.

[CoastalWx]

I see what Will says about the arctic vortex. It can't dive south any later. Wow, what timing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is a slightly weaker, more progressive Feb 1978....I would beg for this, but am worried that the EURO is unstable is all.

Only 4 mb off from the 1978 gradient....day 4.5.....EURO.

WOW

[Logan11]

Getting into some light to moderate snow here now.... I waited two days to get in on the Cape Cod Blizzard.

Bob is happy.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I see what Will says about the arctic vortex. It can't dive south any later. Wow, what timing.

This is perilously close to being a nooser.

[CoastalWx]

Well it went north and didn't close off that far south...like we spoke about., and still hit us pretty good. Longitude may be a good thing for sne.

[ORH_wxman]

Well I've seen enough for tonight. Time to get some sleep.

I think the trend tonight was away from the monster cutoff further south...but also more toward a late hooking storm that should be a good hit for most of SNE.

[OKpowdah]

I made a first call of 3-8" 2 days ago and see no reason to stray from that, yet because the only model that implies more than that is fluctuating radically.

disagree

[CoastalWx]

See y'all later.

[BostonWX]

disagree

Its been pretty consistent in a BIG storm somewhere in SNE for many runs now (what is it 7 runs now?)

[Ginx snewx]

I will take my 18-20 drifts to six feet and dream about them, on to 12zzzzzzs land

[40/70 Benchmark]

disagree

This run is quite different from the prior runs, dude.

[A-L-E-X]

This is a slightly weaker, more progressive Feb 1978....I would beg for this, but am worried that the EURO is unstable is all.

Only 4 mb off from the 1978 gradient....day 4.5.....EURO.

WOW

the winds will be amazing with this thing-- hopefully we get this solution it will be the closest thing to a true blizzard in a long time.

Strength and track sort of remind me of the tax day noreaster 4/15/2007

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is a slightly weaker, more progressive Feb 1978....I would beg for this, but am worried that the EURO is unstable is all.

Only 4 mb off from the 1978 gradient....day 4.5.....EURO.

WOW

Actually, scratch that....this run is of equal intensity to that event...just more progressive.

Feb 1978 had a 1048mb to 984mb peak gradient and the 108 hr EURO had a 1028mb to 964mb gradient.....stunning.

Strongest gradient that I'm aware of on the east coast.

[Logan11]

I thought that one was an inland track (or coast hugger). I remember I got 10" and then it turned to rain overnight while BGM etc stayed all snow.

the winds will be amazing with this thing-- hopefully we get this solution it will be the closest thing to a true blizzard in a long time.

Strength and track sort of remind me of the tax day noreaster 4/15/2007

[A-L-E-X]

I thought that one was an inland track (or coast hugger). I remember I got 10" and then it turned to rain overnight while BGM etc stayed all snow.

It was a hugger I believe-- the center of low pressure (which was like 967 mb) got VERY close to me and then passed off to the east.

On the Euro, this thing is supposed to be at the lat of Toms River, which is less than 50 miles to my south, before swinging to the east.

This is from the main model thread:

FWIW all but 3 of the GFS ensemble member are west of the OP and stronger with the coastal low through hr 72.

[weatherwiz]

Does anyone have any access to 700mb RH fields between 96 HR and 120 HR? Looks like at 96HR there is some dry air that wants to start wrapping into the system...does this fill in at 108 hR?

[A-L-E-X]

Changeover or mixing with the Tax Day storm could also have been a function of the time of year it occurred in-- if that had happened in the heart of winter, you probably would have gotten much more snow.

[Logan11]

Weird that PHL only gets .75" with that track... I get the maps on the accu-wx pro site, but they come out way too late...still waiting. Then I'll see all the qpf in six hour increments.

It was a hugger I believe-- the center of low pressure (which was like 967 mb) got VERY close to me and then passed off to the east.

On the Euro, this thing is supposed to be at the lat of Toms River, which is less than 50 miles to my south, before swinging to the east.

This is from the main model thread:

FWIW all but 3 of the GFS ensemble member are west of the OP and stronger with the coastal low through hr 72.

[Logan11]

Chances are.. .. It was totally elevational around here. ALB got all rain as I recall. Places west of here that stayed all snow got 20"+, but that was also generally elevational with valleys getting a lot less.

Changeover or mixing with the Tax Day storm could also have been a function of the time of year it occurred in-- if that had happened in the heart of winter, you probably would have gotten much more snow.

[Logan11]

I'll rell you when I finally see the maps.

Does anyone have any access to 700mb RH fields between 96 HR and 120 HR? Looks like at 96HR there is some dry air that wants to start wrapping into the system...does this fill in at 108 hR?

[weatherwiz]

I'll rell you when I finally see the maps.

Thank you