Post Christmas Bomb

[40/70 Benchmark]

Those QPF plots are obviously smoothed, as well; I guarantee that if that soloution came to pass, then someone either in my area near the cf....or near the nw periphery in N ORH co, SW NH would see 20"+ in regions of locally enhanced CSI banding.

Too early for that conjecture, but it is what it is.

[weatherwiz]

Those QPF plots are obviously smoothed, as well; I guarantee that if that soloution came to pass, then someone either in my area near the cf....or near the nw periphery in N ORH co, SW NH would see 20"+ in regions of locally enhanced CSI banding.

Too early for that conjecture, but it is what it is.

I agree with you and like we mentioned before the models won't pick up on that really until were probably inside of 48 HR's and then start to have a better handle on it inside of 18 HR's.

Since you have SV maps can you see what 700mb VV's are like?

[H2Otown_WX]

Those QPF plots are obviously smoothed, as well; I guarantee that if that soloution came to pass, then someone either in my area near the cf....or near the nw periphery in N ORH co, SW NH would see 20"+ in regions of locally enhanced CSI banding.

Too early for that conjecture, but it is what it is.

Are you going to at least up your first call to 4-8"? That 3 is bothering me..

[BostonWX]

Are you going to at least up your first call to 4-8"? That 3 is bothering me..

Same

[weatherwiz]

Wish I could zoom into the Northeast on this but take this from the 0z GFS...that's a CRUSHING for the Cape.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I agree with you and like we mentioned before the models won't pick up on that really until were probably inside of 48 HR's and then start to have a better handle on it inside of 18 HR's.

Since you have SV maps can you see what 700mb VV's are like?

Generally, but all you can really do is watch the RAD and mesonet for CF tracking.

Don't have that.

I would gladly lock that up if I could....I'm just worried it's a soloution in flux.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Are you going to at least up your first call to 4-8"? That 3 is bothering me..

No....we are still at day 4.5, dude.

[dendrite]

FWIW all but 3 of the GFS ensemble member are west of the OP and stronger with the coastal low through hr 72.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zf102.html

[weatherwiz]

Generally, but all you can really do is watch the RAD and mesonet for CF tracking.

Don't have that.

I would gladly lock that up if I could....I'm just worried it's a soloution in flux.

Yeah that's true.

I wonder though if we'd see a pretty strong CF setup in a situation like this. I don't know much about them and such but I'd think with such a strong system and quite possibly the thermal gradient line up near the coast and with good LL convergence that would yield to a pretty good CF really enhancing lift...do SST's have any role in the strength of this feature?

[H2Otown_WX]

No....we are still at day 4.5, dude.

*sigh* Fair enough, but you should up it if 12z holds serve or is better.

[weatherwiz]

No....we are still at day 4.5, dude.

[BostonWX]

Bouchard says 80% chance of 6+ and 40% 1'+

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah that's true.

I wonder though if we'd see a pretty strong CF setup in a situation like this. I don't know much about them and such but I'd think with such a strong system and quite possibly the thermal gradient line up near the coast and with good LL convergence that would yield to a pretty good CF really enhancing lift...do SST's have any role in the strength of this feature?

It is dependant upon ssts, but to a much larger extent, SLP track and precise wind vector.....how extensive of a +PP there is to the N.

I think this soloution would have the CF pretty near me for a good duration of the storm, but it would likely reach a few miles beyond me for a time.

This soloution would fascinate me in that respect.

[40/70 Benchmark]

*sigh* Fair enough, but you should up it if 12z holds serve or is better.

00z.

[weatherwiz]

It is dependant upon ssts, but to a much larger extent, SLP track and precise wind vector.....how extensive of a +PP there is to the N.

I think this soloution would have the CF pretty near me for a good duration of the storm, but it would like reach a few miles beyond me for a time.

How far or close to do you want the SLP to track and what would you like to see for wind direction...NE? NNE?

That would be pretty sweet for you...if this were happening tomorrow I'd be pretty stoked.

[A-L-E-X]

It is dependant upon ssts, but to a much larger extent, SLP track and precise wind vector.....how extensive of a +PP there is to the N.

I think this soloution would have the CF pretty near me for a good duration of the storm, but it would like reach a few miles beyond me for a time.

This soloution would fascinate me in that respect.

Does this remind you of Dec 2003 in any way?

[A-L-E-X]

Chances are.. .. It was totally elevational around here. ALB got all rain as I recall. Places west of here that stayed all snow got 20"+, but that was also generally elevational with valleys getting a lot less.

the funny thing was, parts of south Jersey and areas near Philly got close to an inch of snow as that low was departing lol. Not dissimilar from the Oct 28 storm from 2008 I think, when parts of central Jersey got 1-2 inches of snow in a very early season storm.

[40/70 Benchmark]

How far or close to do you want the SLP to track and what would you like to see for wind direction...NE? NNE?

That would be pretty sweet for you...if this were happening tomorrow I'd be pretty stoked.

TBH....I could not draw the track any better than this; this run was my weenie, CCB, CF epic center, Rex Ryan-foot-fetish-run.

Only thing I would alter is to have it captured and stall....loop.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Does this remind you of Dec 2003 in any way?

More favorable for me in that +PP pattern is not as strong; that was more of a Boston\se MA jackpot.

[A-L-E-X]

http://raleighwx.ame...rs/00zf102.html

Cant load that page right now for some reason, Brian But this is what someone said from the NYC subforum:

Yes, of the 11 members:

5 are clearly better than OP

3 or 4 are worse

2 or 3 are about the same

A few are very significant hits.

qpf totals of the ensembles have also been posted.

[A-L-E-X]

More favorable for me in that +PP pattern is not as strong and the track is farther N; that was more of a Boston\se MA jackpot.

Yeah, I remember there was an insane cutoff with that one also.

I see people comparing this to Dec 2009 from last year-- but the orientation axis of heaviest precip will be totally different.

This might not be a Miller B, but the way the axis of heaviest snow is aligned, it has a Miller B "feel" to it.

Somewhat like Jan 2005. Not sure how they did further south, but totals from here to you could be about two thirds of that storm if it works out right lol.

[weatherwiz]

TBH....I could not draw the track any better than this; this run was my weenie, CCB, CF epic center, Rex-Ryan-foot-fetish-run.

Only thing I would alter is to have it captured and stall....loop.

I just looked at the euro on unisys and I really liked it...was hard for me to gauge just based on description...I'm more of a visual person so I need to see the images to get a much more accurate depiction.

Speaking of the storm getting captured I just noticed this...between Day 5 and Day 6 on the euro you can see a high pressure centered over IA and over the mid-west...by Day 6 you can see the high pressure sort of "expands" or it's opened up more...I don't know what the accurate term would be to describe this. Is it possible that this high expanding is allowing to give the storm a bit of an easterly push inbetween D5-6 and b/c of this it's not allowing the northern stream to fully capture the storm?

[dendrite]

Cant load that page right now for some reason, Brian But this is what someone said from the NYC subforum:

Yes, of the 11 members:

5 are clearly better than OP

3 or 4 are worse

2 or 3 are about the same

A few are very significant hits.

qpf totals of the ensembles have also been posted.

Some good hits for NE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah, I remember there was an insane cutoff with that one also.

I see people comparing this to Dec 2009 from last year-- but the orientation axis of heaviest precip will be totally different.

This might not be a Miller B, but the way the axis of heaviest snow is aligned, it has a Miller B "feel" to it.

Somewhat like Jan 2005. Not sure how they did further south, but totals from here to you could be about two thirds of that storm if it works out right lol.

This is a Miller A, but the snowfall distribution along the east coast resembles that of a Miller B because it neglects the MA in large part....not because it is born entirely of the N stream as in Miller Bs, but rather because it "hooks" after it is off the coast and gets ne.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think you're right, Paul.

[weatherwiz]

Some good hits for NE.

Wow...quite a few are pretty darn decent...very nice. Just about all of them with the exception of like two are pretty good for eastern areas.

[dendrite]

Wow...quite a few are pretty darn decent...very nice. Just about all of them with the exception of like two are pretty good for eastern areas.

Big improvement over last night's 6z run.

[weatherwiz]

I think you're right, Paul.

Oh nice! Means I'm learning

That is something that has me a little nervous b/c it's not really a weak high, it's fairly strong, around 1030mb and I don't like the fact that the isobars are bending towards the NE...this has me to believe that the high would indeed expand eastward and given the strength it could certainly be enough to give this bad boy a kick east...I would think we would definitely need to see some phasing take place early enough b/c the strength of the system might just be enough to prevent much of an eastward jog.

[weatherwiz]

Big improvement over last night's 6z run.

That's pretty brutal

Thank God that wasn't a run people care about or otherwise there would be mass meltdown

[TalcottWx]

Game on for plowable snowfall... My heart tells me... My brain tells me wait until 12z