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Steve

Let's Talk Winter!!

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Like the swallows of Capistrano, Steve returns! That means winter is coming. Ohio has not be treated kindly in the past couple of winters, but I have a feeling that this one's yours.

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1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

Like the swallows of Capistrano, Steve returns! That means winter is coming. Ohio has not be treated kindly in the past couple of winters, but I have a feeling that this one's yours.

Unfortunately if it is a weak to mod nina especially closer to mod like this winter looks like it might be, then I think it might not be a good winter for Ohio but more so your area, my area, and Chicago.

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3 hours ago, Stebo said:

Unfortunately if it is a weak to mod nina especially closer to mod like this winter looks like it might be, then I think it might not be a good winter for Ohio but more so your area, my area, and Chicago.

I found no correlation in Nino/Nina events in my analysis that I posted in Upstate for Buffalo Snowfall aside from strong Ninas/Ninos=Below average snowfall. Weak/Mod Ninos/Ninas average out about the same with a slight lead towards weak Ninos. 

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I found no correlation in Nino/Nina events in my analysis that I posted in Upstate for Buffalo Snowfall aside from strong Ninas/Ninos=Below average snowfall. Weak/Mod Ninos/Ninas average out about the same with a slight lead towards weak Ninos. 

Would make sense with lake effect dictating your snowfall so much, only thing that would hurt you would be a warm winter or consistent bad wind direction, which both strong Nina/Ninos would have for your area.

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2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Would make sense with lake effect dictating your snowfall so much, only thing that would hurt you would be a warm winter or consistent bad wind direction, which both strong Nina/Ninos would have for your area.

Yeah true, about half of our snowfall is from Lake Effect. I figured there would have been at least some coorelation though as usually ninos/ninas dictate warmer/colder than normal weather, but that was not the case. 

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7 hours ago, Stebo said:

Unfortunately if it is a weak to mod nina especially closer to mod like this winter looks like it might be, then I think it might not be a good winter for Ohio but more so your area, my area, and Chicago.

There have definitely been some weak to moderate La Ninas that have worked out for Ohio.  For the southeast half to 2/3 of the state though the SE ridge can keep things more warm/rainy as opposed to snowy, but if there's a -NAO or if the cold dumps in a little farther east (over the Midwest/Great Lakes as opposed to the northern Rockies/Plains) Ohio can do well.  I'm personally rather on the fence.  The La Nina looks to be "east-based" (despite the surface temps cooling a bit near the Dateline and warming a bit in the eastern ENSO region over the last couple of weeks, the sub-surface cold pool is centered pretty far east) which can bode well for the SE ridge not being too strong.

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1 minute ago, OHweather said:

There have definitely been some weak to moderate La Ninas that have worked out for Ohio.  For the southeast half to 2/3 of the state though the SE ridge can keep things more warm/rainy as opposed to snowy, but if there's a -NAO or if the cold dumps in a little farther east (over the Midwest/Great Lakes as opposed to the northern Rockies/Plains) Ohio can do well.  I'm personally rather on the fence.  The La Nina looks to be "east-based" (despite the surface temps cooling a bit near the Dateline and warming a bit in the eastern ENSO region over the last couple of weeks, the sub-surface cold pool is centered pretty far east) which can bode well for the SE ridge not being too strong.

Yeah if the -PNA doesn't go nuts or the -NAO can show itself thing could look favorable for Ohio. What is nice is the NW part of the state has a much easier road because many scenarios yield positive outcomes in La Nina.

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I would be shocked at a moderate la nina in ONI terms. It is barely 'weak' right now and not a La Nina in ONI terms. I think Ohio should do better than in 2017. Though, just being a little below average would be a big improvement lol. Columbus could double its snow total and still be below average. Just a awful year 2017 was.

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On 10/3/2017 at 6:26 PM, vespasian70 said:

I can't see how this winter can be worse than last winter for central OH. Never say never though. LOL

2016/2017 was so bad it took quite a toll on the OH crew ...

Never say never is right!! I’ve got my fingers crossed for a decent winter. 

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18 hours ago, iluvsnow said:

I always chuckle at Accuweather with their realllllly stick out their neck...ultra detailed......precisely described forecasts for the season. Here's the new one for the coming winter....

 

Close

DLYqibcXUAA8Pz8.jpg:large

Wow, cold up North and Warm/Rainy Down South, and Warm/Dry in the desert, best Winter Forecast available imo.

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22 hours ago, iluvsnow said:

I always chuckle at Accuweather with their realllllly stick out their neck...ultra detailed......precisely described forecasts for the season. Here's the new one for the coming winter....

 

Close

DLYqibcXUAA8Pz8.jpg:large

Another way to look at it is that's as accurate as they can toss darts from this range..

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11 hours ago, blackrock said:

Bring on an Alberta Clipper winter! Those have been lacking the past couple of years.

Pass. Best winters feature a combination of storm types. Even though your location almost guarantee a good result from clippers, for most of us it's a roll of the dice. I'm still waiting to see a winter that features recurring CO lows, Panhandle hooks, and GOMEX  lows. I'm not even sure that's possible tbh, but a few seasons have tried.  

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9 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Pass. Best winters feature a combination of storm types. Even though your location almost guarantee a good result from clippers, for most of us it's a roll of the dice. I'm still waiting to see a winter that features recurring CO lows, Panhandle hooks, and GOMEX  lows. I'm not even sure that's possible tbh, but a few seasons have tried.  

As much as I would love all those different systems, climatology says that kind of winter is pretty rare in Michigan. Though Alberta clippers usually don't become bombed out systems, they provide much of the average snowfall for the Great Lakes states. It is true...my area is often rocking when we get the clipper train going, with many SW flow enhanced events off of Lake Michigan. :)

Plus, Alberta Clippers tend to come along with blasts of cold air as a trough digs down through the north central plains and northern Great Lakes. Better chances for snowcover to stick around.

 

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2 hours ago, iluvsnow said:

The first snow flakes of the season started here in Bellbrook...just southeast of Dayton just after 7 this morning (Saturday 10/28). Always a joyful thing to see....and before Halloween. Now that has me geeked!

Yes, and so it begins!  October snows usually are not a good sign if you like snowy winters...  last time this happened it was like late Jan before the next measurable snow here in the Dayton area!

20171028_080052_sm.jpg

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Differences between east-based La Nina's & central-based La Nina's

Figure A is east-based. Figure B is central-based

HmaZafN.gif

Currently this La Nina would be considered more of an east-based La Nina

U1tjPim.png

DJF 500mb for East-based years:
OaQIGck.png

DJF Temps
9iauJ6i.png

 

However, ironically in east-based years JFM is colder than Dec. DEC is typically the warmest month in the east-based years.


JFM 500mb east-based years
IexJJpK.png


JFM Temps
iRSN632.png

 

Compare all of that to central-based La Nina years:


DJF 500mb
C5P9xsx.png


DJF Temps
5PhbJfy.png


December being the coldest month for central-based Nina's. One noticeable difference is that east-based La Nina's are more prone to have a -NAO, especially during the JFM period.  Central-based Nina's are more prone to having a +NAO.


One thing worth noting is not all East-based Nina's are frigid. You can have warmth. Some years were warm like 2005-06. This information is just something to think about.

Also worth nothing is that you can have a Nina that's kind of a mix of east-based versus central-based.

Here are 2 peer-reviewed studies discussing east-based La Nina's versus central-based La Nina's:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11434-012-5423-5

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2155-z

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Saw the first flakes of the season! Currently 34° and snow! Rain and heavy at times all night transitioned to snow little over an hour ago! Light accumulation on cars and grassy surfaces. Beautiful to watch come down. Had to wake up early so I wouldn’t miss it, but totally worth it! Can’t wait for LES to start kicking in!

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