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George BM

October Banter String

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2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Latest Gfs really looks weak sauce.  The gulf low is strung out and weak and the remnants appear less robust. North of i70 gets basically sprinkles..hopefully just a hiccup.

I can save you the trouble of following the models on what we will see with the remnants. I predict copious amounts of rain and tree snapping winds. How do I know this you might ask? Well it's quite simple. My wife and I are going camping tomorrow through Tuesday. 

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On 10/1/2017 at 11:28 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

 

 

 

Thank you all for the kind words. I'm still really broken up this morning. 

The person was a veteran. After a long battle with PTSD they took their own life. Left behind a spouse and two young children. It hurts so much to think about them growing up without such an amazing parent in their life.

It is also hitting home at a time when I'm pretty close to making a major life change in the context of my relationship. I want a family, but I might have to start over to have one. 

It's not February...I don't feel rudderless...but it's hard not to be worried about the future. 

I know I'm late in saying this, but I'm sorry to hear this.  If you need someone to talk to as others have also said, I'm only a PM away.  :hug:

 

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On 10/1/2017 at 11:43 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Thanks for the kind words.

Sorry to hear the sad news.  I've had similar circumstances over the last couple years and can imagine what you're going through.  We all must stay strong. <3

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I wish I had read the LR Winter Disco thread sooner. The volcanic discussion was top notch. Good work @Bob Chill

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I am sincerely sorry to Mappy for this forecast, but the western VA mountains will get lots and lots of rain in the next few days. The track of Nate's remnants should spare eastern VA, including Dale City and Washington DC, from heavy rain. We will get our heavy rain in Jan and Feb, in the heart of the low sun season, instead of snow.

The track of Nate's remnants will be far enough west, that Dale City will see variable cloudiness only on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday with an outside chance of light drizzle. A light shower or two cannot be ruled out.

 

Most of the heavy rain will waterboard the mountains. It is likely to be disastrous despite the antecedent dry conditions. Orographic forcing will increase the rainfall which will already be efficient. The weather will continue hazy warm and very humid throughout most of next week as La Nina continues to exert (warmer and drier than normal) and the effects of advanced global warming and of climate change continue and intensify with time. It will feel like mid August.

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19 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Just got down to OC for the big car show and it's just fantastic outside tonight.. 

You should come to the Ridgely car show on the 15th of October. It has really grown over the years and its an amazing event for a quaint small town on the upper Eastern shore. Check it out. I usually go- only 3 miles from my house.

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It really is incredible.

This is a dry year for this part of the country.

In the Central Plains they are just getting destroyed by rain event after rain event after rain event after rain event after rain event after rain event.

In our part of the country, its the dry season, and miraculously enough, Nature always finds a way to side strongly with that wonderful quality that we often refer to as PERSISTENCE.

I remember earlier this high sun season, Bob Chill saying that if we manage to get on the eastern side of a tropical system it would be more fun than if the tropical entity were passing to the east of us. Now, I am not bashing Bob Chill in any way, shape, or form. The guy is a NINJA JEDI when it comes to pattern recognition and meteorology, every single time. He's got the Gift.

 

It is just that I happen to live in such a horrible place. Tropical systems pass to my east, its dry. Nate will pass to my WEST, unfortunately WELL TO MY WEST.

This year, it seems that we always find a way to consistently not get hit by these systems. I wish to G-d and to the Goddess, that I lived on a small island in the Caribbean that took a direct hit from a Cat 5 hurricane, in the Right Front Quadrant, with a wonderful 45 foot storm surge, 80 foot waves on top of the surge, driven by 210 mph sustained winds.

There would be no more persistence of calm weather for me there, not any more.

 

But, Reality Is, that I live in Dale City. Nate's remnants will pass well west. I'll be fortunate to see a quarter inch of rain, while the mountains may easily exceed a foot of fresh, life giving rainfall without even breakin' a sweat. This is our life. We are in a Nina. Its going to stay dry, and its going to stay milder than normal all fall and winter. This global warming and climate change WILL kill us all, every last one of us by the time it is done.

 

It does not matter whether the remnants pass to our east or to our west.

We Always FAIL, and we know how to Fail like a Boss.

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You're so weird^. It's cool though. I like weird people lol. Don't worry, Jeb. You'll be dancing in puddles and gusty winds by Monday, and then again all winter lol

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I have a friend who has to make the call as to whether to cancel a huge outdoor event on Sunday afternoon. She's leaning to yes, but desperate for additional input, so she's asking me, and now I'm asking y'all. :)

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8 hours ago, dailylurker said:

You're so weird^. It's cool though. I like weird people lol. Don't worry, Jeb. You'll be dancing in puddles and gusty winds by Monday, and then again all winter lol

Too true.

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4 hours ago, jacindc said:

I have a friend who has to make the call as to whether to cancel a huge outdoor event on Sunday afternoon. She's leaning to yes, but desperate for additional input, so she's asking me, and now I'm asking y'all. :)

What are the times of the event and when does the call have to be made by?

eta: GFS trend for tomorrow evening

59d90133cffac828794792.gif

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What are the times of the event and when does the call have to be made by?

eta: GFS trend for tomorrow evening

59d90133cffac828794792.gif.54394aec54d93b053d02f0075e8e7796.gif

Thanks. I told her she can't win no matter what. :) It's mid-afternoon, big outdoor grilling shindig. I think they're going to cancel.

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Rain streamers already forming over the mountains, and over I 81. They are going to get absolutely CLOBBERED with rain, even tonight.

I 95 will be breezy very warm and partly cloudy into Sunday morning

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16 hours ago, dailylurker said:

You're so weird^. It's cool though. I like weird people lol. Don't worry, Jeb. You'll be dancing in puddles and gusty winds by Monday, and then again all winter lol

Weird is the new cool lol. I hope I get lots of rain this winter, Nina doesnt help that much.

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https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lwx&product=N0R&loop=yes

I am not surprised. Central Virginia WILL get to HOG all of the rain. Some of that rain is falling at 2 inches per hour, with a hell of a LOT more for them on the way.

That will NOT hit us.

Northern Virginia will learn to make do with occasional light drizzle later today. That's okay, because even though we will not get measurable rainfall this week, I just happen to have a scanning electron microscope. I can and will track rainfall accumulations in the nanometer realm.

All the same, my heart is breaking over all of the rain that is only about 50 miles south of me. It might as well be halfway around the world, because I am being denied and I will be denied my heavy rain accompanied by battleship gray skies.

When will I learn that we are in a Nina, that this means DRY weather for the Mid Atlantic, and that it will average warmer than normal throughout the life of the La Nina?

Those that get the rain, they sure know how to HOG all of it, every last drop, and they HOG LIKE A BOSS.

We fail like a boss.

When all is said and done, at the end of the rainy day in Central VA, they'll come back and taunt poor rain-starved Jeb with tales of all of the rain they got, and of the frantic water rescues that the rain provoked, while all i can ever do, is to cry oceans and oceans of tears into my beer.

Thats all I ever do. Ninas in the Mid Atlantic are Ram Tough!

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I am starting to feel pains in my chest, thinking about rushing to the ER for a possible heart attack --- all because I am in severe terminal SHOCK over the very real possibility that it just might RAIN in Dale City tonight.

THAT'S just how dry it has been in Northern Virginia.

 

The northern tier of states have been getting rained to death. They will get storm after storm after storm after storm after storm after storm and will be MUCH above normal for rain, then they will get snowed in to death.

 

Many people this winter up north, freezing to near death in the deep snow up there and bitter cold, will long for just one day of Washington DC's mild temperatures and dry weather.

I predict that the population around the Washington Metropolitan Region will balloon by 14000 percent by 2021. Housing construction is going to explode in this region, year over year over year. There will be an OUTER outer Beltway constructed beginning in the early 2020s. Dale City will be INSIDE this newer outer beltway. Baltimore, DC, Fredericksburg, eastern West Virginia, Delaware and Philly will begin to merge in the mid 2030s - it will all be one HUGE superultramegalopolis.

Climate change is going to cause our average weather to become much drier and much warmer and it will sharply accelerate. You'll see many storm weary Northerners moving to the DC area for lucrative jobs and for the incredibly benign, warm, dry and healthful weather we enjoy here more and more and more. Get into real estate, land values are gonna explode like you wouldnt believe.

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I have a new hobby, a kind of new morbid fascination.

I really savor driving on I 95 and on 495 in heavy traffic in marginal weather. It is exhilarating. I like it when maverick drivers zip by me at 95 mph, within a FOOT of my car!

WHAT A RUSH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It's better than getting 27 inches of snow!

This all started because I'm morbid about severe weather, then I started going up to National Harbor all the time. I LOVE 495, it is a downright crazy stretch of highway between Springfield and Oxon Hill in MD. I love it when those big truck spray me with water and I cant even see where I am going.

This is one of the biggest reasons why I love severe rain weather. I love the spray that comes up off 495 as rogue trucks go by! I love those crazy rogue drivers, you know the ones that are late for work, going about 90 mph, weaving around like Speed Racer! Its a terminal rush and I love it!

THIS is why I am always praying for rain, drizzle, fog and a steady northeast wind!

BRING IT THE HELL ON!!!!!

Blast Moshpit by Showtek at near max volume for maximum rush!

 

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