Hurricane Maria

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

I just looked back at the COMP4 guage again, and it is still going up, insanely so. Wish we had something independant to say whether or not it is malfunctioning:

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=sju&gage=comp4

Each of those points should be 15 or 30 minutes apart, meaning that would be 30+ foot rises in time scales well under an hour. And it doesn't look like it is missing data (like CIAP4 which went from 10 AM to 5 PM without a report). So just to my eyes that looks like bad data. Something could easily be jammed in the sensor (much like ice in the winter can produce similar results). 

[David Reimer]

19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

We would like to thank the crew of the latest Air Force Reserve
mission for their incredible service today.  After beginning their
mission this morning before the center first moved onshore, the crew
went above and beyond, returning to Curacao to refuel, and then
heading back to Puerto Rico to catch Maria's center when it first
moved back off the coast.  The data collected by the crew was
incredibly important for us to analyze Maria's intensity and
structure after moving across the island, and we are grateful for
their effort.

 

Don’t think I’ve seen that happen before. Huge props to the flight crew for making that happen. Certainly adds to the paperwork for them and could have just as easily ended the flight early. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

22 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Each of those points should be 15 or 30 minutes apart, meaning that would be 30+ foot rises in time scales well under an hour. And it doesn't look like it is missing data (like CIAP4 which went from 10 AM to 5 PM without a report). So just to my eyes that looks like bad data. Something could easily be jammed in the sensor (much like ice in the winter can produce similar results). 

This is the USGS site link for that gauge - https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?site_no=50043800

The last update was about 2 hours ago (I know different gauges report out at different intervals).  The one thing notable is the cumulative rainfall noted at the USGS link (> 17" so far).

[Random Chaos]

3 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

This is the USGS site link for that gauge - https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?site_no=50043800

The last update was about 2 hours ago (I know different gauges report out at different intervals).  The one thing notable is the cumulative rainfall noted as the USGS link (> 17" so far).

USGS has discharge rate of "fld" which means "flood damage" - so, malfunctioning

[Hurricane Agnes]

4 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

USGS has discharge rate of "fld" which means "flood damage" - so, malfunctioning

I assumed "flood" for that abbreviation but it does have a link to the term!

Instantaneous and Daily Value Status Codes

     ---------------------------------
     Code   Description
     ---------------------------------
     Ssn    Parameter monitored seasonally
     Bkw    Flow affected by backwater
     Ice    Ice affected
     Pr     Partial-record site
     Rat    Rating being developed or revised
     Eqp    Equipment malfunction
     Fld    Flood damage
     Dry    Dry
     Dis    Data-collection discontinued
     --     Parameter not determined
     Mnt    Maintenance in progress
     ZFl    Zero flow
     ***    Temporarily unavailable

Thanks for confirming!  I think many of the gauges across the island are going through similar failures.  We saw that with Harvey for the gauges in and around Houston and how they failed.

[medville]

37 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

We would like to thank the crew of the latest Air Force Reserve
mission for their incredible service today.  After beginning their
mission this morning before the center first moved onshore, the crew
went above and beyond, returning to Curacao to refuel, and then
heading back to Puerto Rico to catch Maria's center when it first
moved back off the coast.  The data collected by the crew was
incredibly important for us to analyze Maria's intensity and
structure after moving across the island, and we are grateful for
their effort.

Please direct me to the full bulletin where this came from. I'm going to use this elsewhere but I want to site where it came from. thanks!!

[RU4Real]

1 minute ago, medville said:

Please direct me to the full bulletin where this came from. I'm going to use this elsewhere but I want to site where it came from. thanks!!

 

NHC posted it on Facebook: 

 

[Windspeed]

This is the USGS 24 hr totals map of the flood event from Oct. 6-7, 1985 that set many of those flood stage records.

[jojo762]

Looks like Jose weakens quite a bit on the 18Z GFS, and the ridges appear to connect, but hard to tell if there is still a weakness for Maria to escape OTS or not so far in the run through hr108... IMO steering gets pretty murky on this run by hour 108 as the cyclone slows significantly. 

[jbenedet]

11 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Looks like Jose weakens quite a bit on the 18Z GFS, and the ridges appear to connect, but hard to tell if there is still a weakness for Maria to escape OTS or not so far in the run through hr108... IMO steering gets pretty murky on this run by hour 108 as the cyclone slows significantly. 

The key is that trough moving across the Rockies around hr 162. It certainly is deep enough to pull Maria inland rather than push her ots. The main issue I'm seeing now on the GFS is timing. 

[Weatherchaser]

 

 

[jbenedet]

Odd that the GFS wants to hold back that shortwave over the SW, so the whole longwave trough becomes misaligned. That likely corrects towards the 12z euro's depiction at hr 192...

 

I guess it was already a step toward the euro considering the 12z gfs cut off that shortwave, whereas this run did not...

[Papa Joe]

1 hour ago, Random Chaos said:

I just looked back at the COMP4 guage again, and it is still going up, insanely so. Wish we had something independant to say whether or not it is malfunctioning: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=sju&gage=comp4 The -999 flow entries are suspicious of malfunction:   Observed Data:
|Date(UTC)|	|Stage|	|--Flow-|
09/20 20:51	79.45ft	-999kcfs
09/20 20:35	79.97ft	-999kcfs
09/20 20:31	78.62ft	-999kcfs
09/20 20:30	78.62ft	-999kcfs
09/20 20:15	60.54ft	-999kcfs
09/20 20:00	59.16ft	-999kcfs
09/20 19:30	30.48ft	-999kcfs
09/20 19:26	24.90ft	76.2kcfs
09/20 19:21	22.77ft	57.8kcfs
09/20 19:15	22.04ft	52.3kcfs
09/20 19:00	21.50ft	48.4kcfs

I believe -999 is a missing value, so probably no more gauge (or no working gauge)

[Windspeed]

The convective complex interaction with that strong feeder earlier has gone bonkers the past few hours with -80° tops.

[Hurricane Agnes]

11 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

The convective complex interaction with that strong feeder earlier has gone bonkers the past few hours with -80° tops.

But also seeing the inner eye opening after looking at the loop here - http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-0-100

Recent image -

 

[Windspeed]

But also seeing the inner eye opening after looking at the loop here - http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-0-100

Recent image -

 

The large eye looks to be clearing out. But my focus there was more on the convective complex over PR. We no longer have visible to see the individual training cells which was our next best thing besides radar. The complex is troubling.

[Hurricane Agnes]

6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

22 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

But also seeing the inner eye opening after looking at the loop here - http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-0-100

Recent image -

 


 

The large eye looks to be clearing out. But my focus there was more on the convective complex over PR. We no longer have visible to see the individual training cells which was our next best thing besides radar. The complex is troubling.

Oh I know... That has been rolling across there all day.  If you look at the WV images, that band has been building and expanding NW -> SE for some time and you can see why the river/stream gauges are choking.  You can loop the water vapory images (LL & ML) here - http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-10-200-0-100

[ineedsnow]

39 minutes ago, Papa Joe said:

I believe -999 is a missing value, so probably no more gauge (or no working gauge)

Slowly falling now

[olafminesaw]

It doesn't seem to making much northward progress, eastern DR is also getting pounded right now.

[Hurricane Agnes]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

It doesn't seem to making much northward progress, eastern DR is also getting pounded right now.

She's transforming!  The eye is clearing -

 

[senc30]

Hopefully I can get an answer to this question. Can someone point me to he website where you can actually follow the track of the hurricane as compared to the official track? Someone posted it for Irma but like an idiot, I didn't save it. Thanks in advance. 

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

just realized my other computer, still had the PR radar up.

last radar image from PR

[Windspeed]

Hopefully I can get an answer to this question. Can someone point me to he website where you can actually follow the track of the hurricane as compared to the official track? Someone posted it for Irma but like an idiot, I didn't save it. Thanks in advance. 

Probably University of Wisconsin's CIMSS. Pick your cyclone and then select which satellite overlay you prefer.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu

[senc30]

2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Probably University of Wisconsin's CIMSS. Pick your cyclone and then select which satellite overlay you prefer.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu

That's it. Many thanks!!

[Chinook]

The latest recon hit 955mb, and about 96 kt flight level, possibly 83 kt surface wind.

[Hurricane Agnes]

8pm summary -

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
800 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...CORE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE MARIA GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM
PUERTO RICO...
...CONDITIONS NOW DETERIORATING OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 67.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

 

[NJwx85]

As I feared Maria is quickly rebuilding its inner core. A ring of deep convection is quickly wrapping around a large eye feature.

[Paragon]

3 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Yes, the general idea here is to note that they reading above record. They may not be reporting correctly but anything above record is alarming. Those levels have been in data sets for many years as you would expect for a tropical island in the USGS database. The 1985 event set most of those records. 31.67 inches of rain peaked in the Toro Negro State Forest and is the record within a 24 hour period. Neither Hurricane Georges or Hugo came close. Maria may end up exceding it if the southerly onshore pivot persist all evening. Not having radar estimates or comms established sucks. It may be several days before we really grasp the brunt of impact with isolated communities.

 

Reports now coming in of close to 40" of rain!

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Even if it hits the US I'm not sure what sort of shape it's in at that point.  It's not really taking a trajectory over a favorable area.  I'm thinking a 75-90 mph cane at the worst 

Agree....I don't think its a major threat.

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree....I don't think its a major threat.

Might be like Jose- remember Jose was 150 mph at one point too.