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Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE


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6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Some of those were quite bad, like the one showing Irma 300 mi N of PR moving toward the NW.

We need to remove the focus on the centerline. Irma was always within the NHC's cone of uncertainty (meaning their track error was less than the average track error over the last 5 years). 

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nice gif thing , the guy that made those NHC tracks.

but following up on minesaw's post. 

I've NEVER seen such an expansion of especially tropical storm force winds...hurricane force possibly as well.   Is there a way to check is this is a record, in terms of distance ?

That is very abnormally spread-out ..  friggin Huge.  (the most current part)

Wind History...look how thin it was in the beginning.

 

032540_wind_history.png

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

We need to remove the focus on the centerline. Irma was always within the NHC's cone of uncertainty (meaning their track error was less than the average track error over the last 5 years). 

We'll be battling these hot takes over the coming days because Irma didn't totally decimate Miami and/or make landfall at a certain point on an arbitrary scale. **** is intellectually void and thus ripe for widespread dissemination.

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15 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said:

nice gif thing , the guy that made those NHC tracks.

but following up on minesaw's post. 

I've NEVER seen such an expansion of especially tropical storm force winds...hurricane force possibly as well.   Is there a way to check is this is a record, in terms of distance ?

That is very abnormally spread-out ..  friggin Huge.  (the most current part)

Wind History...look how thin it was in the beginning.

 

032540_wind_history.png

Sandy's wind field exploded even larger along the East Coast. 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Extreme Wind Warning
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
1114 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2017

The National Weather Service in Ruskin has issued a

* Extreme Wind Warning for...
  Polk County in central Florida...

* Until 1245 AM EDT

* At 1111 PM EDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar and
  emergency management in Hardee County indicated a core of very
  strong winds, associated with the eyewall of Hurricane Irma that
  were moving northward into Polk County. Wind gusts greater than
  100 mph are possible across Polk County through 1230 AM. This is
  an dangerous and potentially life-threatening situation for those
  outdoors!

* Locations impacted include...
  Lakeland, Winter Haven, Haines City, Bartow, Lake Wales,
  Auburndale, Fussels Corner, Combee Settlement, Lakeland Linder
  Airport, Medulla, Jan Phyl Village, Poinciana, Fort Meade, Lake
  Alfred, Crooked Lake Park, Mulberry, Dundee, Frostproof, Davenport
  and Eagle Lake.
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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It's going to be a pretty successful forecast for them. 

While technically wildly successful (Hell, GFS was only 30mb/60 miles off from LAST MONDAY!); frequenting boards by non-meteorological people showing immense dissatisfaction Miami was not obliterated.

I don't know how expectations of accuracy like Back To The Future 2 can be overcome.  Trying to resist the urge to punch them through the face on the internet, but expect that sort of public reaction.

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47 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

We need to remove the focus on the centerline. Irma was always within the NHC's cone of uncertainty (meaning their track error was less than the average track error over the last 5 years). 

I'd like to see them not use a center line. There's a lot of anecdotal evidence that people focus on that too much, especially non wx types.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

I'd like to see them not use a center line. There's a lot of anecdotal evidence that people focus on that too much, especially non wx types.

I don't think that's lost on them either. When you click on a storm the NHC default is now no centerline forecast, just the cone and points. But it's only natural to draw a straight line between points.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I don't think that's lost on them either. When you click on a storm the NHC default is now no centerline forecast, just the cone and points. But it's only natural to draw a straight line between points.

True.  Media outlets could help by not showing a center line, but it seems like many of them still show it.  

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I know it gets tough with a high stakes system like Irma, but I wish people could keep the morality issues out of these threads.

I mean, you need to understand that its a weather forum, and people are intrigued by exciting weather. I understand that creates a moral conflict, but within this context that is their right. I think with  a calm pulse and clear head, most would admit that a forum of weather nuts is not the place to go to find the vast majority of people wishing big storms away.

No one controls it, and we all hope people do what they need to in order to remain safe.

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1 hour ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said:

nice gif thing , the guy that made those NHC tracks.

but following up on minesaw's post. 

I've NEVER seen such an expansion of especially tropical storm force winds...hurricane force possibly as well.   Is there a way to check is this is a record, in terms of distance ?

That is very abnormally spread-out ..  friggin Huge.  (the most current part)

Wind History...look how thin it was in the beginning.

 

032540_wind_history.png

 

1 hour ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said:

nice gif thing , the guy that made those NHC tracks.

but following up on minesaw's post. 

I've NEVER seen such an expansion of especially tropical storm force winds...hurricane force possibly as well.   Is there a way to check is this is a record, in terms of distance ?

That is very abnormally spread-out ..  friggin Huge.  (the most current part)

Wind History...look how thin it was in the beginning.

 

032540_wind_history.png

I don't know if it's the storm... but I CAN tell you everything is blowing off my front porch. And I am in Mobile AL. 

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18 minutes ago, forecasterjack said:

Upper level outflow and dynamics associated with the jet streak to Irma's north are now dominating the system as the inner core evaporates approaching Jacksonville. Amazing to watch. Loop: https://weather.us/satellite/800-w-320-n/top-alert-superhd-15min.html#play  

us_sat-en-087-0_2017_09_11_08_45_5750_486.png

I've been watching loops of the IR and it's as if it wants to go back out into the Atlantic. Final frame as of a few minutes ago-

 

irma-545am-ir-09112017.PNG

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