Paragon Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: The unnamed hurricane stayed well offshore. Yeah I think the closest it got was 200 miles east of ACY (the Perfect Storm, I mean; the unnamed hurricane was a separate entity.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: Chris and Don, if this strong blocking persists it may have implications for the winter forecast, I remember we talked about the October blocking-to-winter connection awhile back. In the past, there have been a number of cases where the development of strong blocking in early autumn was an indicator of a blocky winter. However, the AO cannot be forecast with reliability at seasonal timescales. Early promise from such approaches linked to the advance of Eurasian snow cover has not worked out. Had one relied on Eurasian snow cover, recent winters should have featured a lot of blocking. In fact, the AO+ dominated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 36 minutes ago, Sportybx said: Are we looking like a Sandy event for the NYC area if the track moves more towards the west ? No. I think the primary distinction will be that Jose will look and act more tropical than Sandy did when she made it into the subtropics. Intensity, and track will be quite different as well. That much is already clear. In addition, Sandy was a much more complex system. The baroclinic factor that was critical to Sandy's evolution is quite limited with Jose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 The 500 mb pattern is forecast to evolve toward a pattern that is similar to the one that was in place when Hurricane Esther was moving north-northeastward along the Middle Atlantic Coast in 1961. Eventually, that major hurricane made an anti-cyclonic loop after passing east of Montauk Point before finally making landfall in Massachusetts as a tropical storm. The exact details will make a large difference where Jose ultimately tracks. Historic climatology still gives Jose a 1-in-4 probability of U.S. landfall. The ensembles suggest a somewhat higher risk, as does the developing blocking. According to the historic climatology for tropical cyclones passing within 100 nautical miles of Jose's 11 am position, the region from North Carolina to New England would be at the highest risk of U.S. landfall. Among the storms in that data set were the 1893 Midnight Hurricane (New York landfall), the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944 (North Carolina landfall and then north and eastward), and Hurricane Esther. Given the continuing uncertainty associated with Jose's track, a track 100 miles on either side of Esther's track prior to its loop is a plausible scenario. It appears that the risk of impacts, including the possibility of tropical storm conditions, has increased for North Carolina's Outer Banks and then Suffolk County into eastern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Around 72hrs, the GFS starts moving on a NW heading towards the coast. It's East of the 00z run, but in line with the 06z run thus far. As you can see, the initial trough is gone The ridge builds to the North and Jose has no choice but to follow the Easterly flow on the Southern periphery of the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 The next question is, does the next trough have a chance to come in and kick Jose OTS. Look how far away the trough is. Logic says this has a lot more room to come further West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Extra-tropical transition begins around day 4, the wind field begins to expand substantially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Looks like it wants to come back into the coast. GFS initialization seems a shade too far NE. That made all the difference guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 The trough is way up near Hudson Bay, and lifting out. The window for Jose to kick OTS is closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 1 minute ago, Vice-Regent said: Looks like it wants to come back into the coast. GFS initialization seems a shade too far NE. That made all the difference guys. Yeah...no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 LF looks imminent, ridge locked in over Northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yeah...no Either way it stays over warm water the end result is the same verbatim. Just more Sandy-esque rather than something more novel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Not sure if Jose escapes East at the very last second, but looks like a terrible run for Nantucket and Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 We lost the Quebec shortwave kicker this run. As i stated previously, this run seems more realistic. This would have ended up west of 6z, and similar to 0z if the recurve north didn't happen more aburptly through 36 hr. We should be able to narrow the cone substaintially by this time tomorrow, as the recurve north will have already started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: LF looks imminent, ridge locked in over Northern New England. I dont see any steering currents taking it west nor the ridge locked in forcing Jose west. I could be wrong though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: We lost the Quebec shortwave kicker this run. As i stated previously, this run seems more realistic. This would have ended up west of 6z, and similar to 0z if the recurve north didn't happen more aburptly through 36 hr. it's a real shame for hurricane enthusiasts. This setup is gold for NE landfalls yet sensitive to small changes (typical of NE hurricanes). However I would continue to monitor the short term motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The trough is way up near Hudson Bay, and lifting out. The window for Jose to kick OTS is closing. If it trends further west this will Jose will get captured at least partially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: it's a real shame for hurricane enthusiasts. This setup is gold for NE landfalls yet sensitive to small changes (typical of NE hurricanes). However I would continue to monitor the short term motion. Yea. This remains a close call for eastern LI and SE New England because we are lacking longitude right out of the gate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 No U.S. landfall but a very close pass to Nantucket (map from Weather.us): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yea. This remains a close call for eastern LI and SE New England because we are lacking longitude right out of the gate. Maria (M Storm) will probably deliver for the EC if she forms but that is a story for another day. Perhaps not NJ or New England but somebody from Miami to ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Have to monitor for future west trends due to increased blocking. Jose is close to getting forced more to the west as it treks up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Anyone know Jose's ACE is? Is there a good link on where to get that info? Thanks EDIT: It is 31.1 http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2017&storm=12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Listen, it's pretty clear Jose misses the first trough, that's strike one. If the second trough is too far North, that's strike two, and if the ridge rebuilds to the North, that's strike three. We should know by tomorrow honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 no way it's going to be 966 mb that far north without a big phasing event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 28 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Maria (M Storm) will probably deliver for the EC if she forms but that is a story for another day. Perhaps not NJ or New England but somebody from Miami to ME. It's day 10, but that pattern though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 The 12z UKMET looks close to the GFS track. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 12z UKMET looks close to the GFS track. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0 Cmc is west of gfs and tucked in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 OT, but if you look @ the Ukie at 144 hours you see a TS developing in the W Atlantic.....Also, as posted in the other hurricane thread, the 12z GFS shows a major TS hitting the SE Coast during 200-252 hours. As for Jose, question, when is the last time besides Sandy that a tropical system has made landfall North of the Mid-Atantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 1 hour ago, Vice-Regent said: Either way it stays over warm water the end result is the same verbatim. Just more Sandy-esque rather than something more novel. Stop with the Sandy comparisons. In no way, shape or form is Jose going to be anywhere near the monster that Sandy was, with the lowest barometric pressure of a landfalling hurricane (yes, it should've never been declassified as extratropical right before landfall, if only for emergency response reasons) at 940 mbar. Even the roided up GFS today only has Jose between 950-960 mbar as it reaches 40N near NJ/NY, while last night's Euro was more like 970 mbar. Sandy also had the 2nd highest integrated kinetic energy at landfall of any landfalling hurricane in the satellite era in the Atlantic. Sure the max winds weren't Andrew's 160 mph+, but Sandy was much larger and its overall storm energy was much greater than Andrew's, which is why Andrew had a catastrophic impact on only a small area, while Sandy had major to catastrophic impacts (especially storm surge) over a much, much larger area. Jose is no Sandy - the only thing that could look similar is the track (but not the impact) if Jose makes a NW move into NJ/NYC, which his not anticipated. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/sandy-packed-more-total-energy-than-katrina-at-landfall/2012/11/02/baa4e3c4-24f4-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_blog.html?utm_term=.4263a0922f39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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