Fall 2017 Model Mehham

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

There’s a ski thread Flizzy.

https://www.onthesnow.com/northeast/projected-openings.html

This thread is for serious winter talk only. 

Thanks.... I thought I was posting in the banter thread. My apologies mods... move If you’d like 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Thanks.... I thought I was posting in the banter thread. My apologies mods... move If you’d like 

The site isn’t spot on with opening dates though. It’s a ballpark dependant on conditions obviously. I’m sure if you ask PF he will shuttle you right into the base lodge of your desired mountain himself. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Case study model run for that philosopher/Met's conjecture about the protracted storm hypothesis. 

Basically, you're in the same "planetary event" ... they just take two to three weeks to go through their life cycles.   These long-wave troughs really represent single storms at planetary scales... The individual "short waves" embedded?  They are like squalls in the same storm with interspersed episodic nulls. 

Fascinating idea and frankly, one of those that is 'too elegant' to be false if you ask me...   The moment I first heard of it was one of those yes moments.  

Anyway, west based heavily drilled NAO phase state with packed in REX block that's hitting at three distinct Nor-easter 'episodes' ...  Almost a May 2005, but at the end of the season when we want it ...   

[Go Kart Mozart]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Case study model run for that philosopher/Met's conjecture about the protracted storm hypothesis. 

Basically, you're in the same "planetary event" ... they just take two to three weeks to go through their life cycles.   These long-wave troughs really represent single storms at planetary scales... The individual "short waves" embedded?  They are like squalls in the same storm with interspersed episodic nulls. 

Fascinating idea and frankly, one of those that is 'too elegant' to be false if you ask me...   The moment I first heard of it was one of those yes moments.  

Anyway, west based heavily drilled NAO phase state with packed in REX block that's hitting at three distinct Nor-easter 'episodes' ...  Almost a May 2005, but at the end of the season when we want it ...   

Wow, I feel like I have been smoking pot with Donald Sutherland.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Wow, I feel like I have been smoking pot with Donald Sutherland.

John, you have spoken of that long wave trough as a single, protracted storm before and I agree....the very essence of regimes like Feb 2015, Jan 2011, Jan 1996 and March 2001.

Interesting you used the phrase "life cycle"....I'm drawing some comparisons to the atmosphere and life in general in my outlook that you may find intriguing.

Awesome stuff-

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I was taking into account that it was 2 weeks from now. 11/20-11/25 is still pretty early...it's better than 11/10, but you still need a lot going right. Just look at the climo of snowfalls more than 6" for dates before 11/25....even for ORH. It's not that easy. It's doable, but I'd probably not really get that into it until there's actually some guidance that screams snowstorm and it's inside 4 days. Not saying you are calling for snowstorms, but just in general for everyone on here, I think expectations should be tempered. I'll say that it is a good sign we're already seeing early blocking...even if it's wave-breaking. It shows it can be done.

 

This is what I was saying about the whole persistence forecasting notion within the context of seasonal NAO outlooks...it works until it doesn't-

I don't care if we haven't had a stable -NAO in 20 years....show me an east-based weak la nina event under the back drop of a -QBO nearing a solar minimum, along with a favorable Atlantic sst profile during the previous May-August timeframe, and I'll show you some winter blocking.

That being said....it hasn't verified yet.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is what I was saying about the whole persistence forecasting notion within the context of seasonal NAO outlooks...it works until it doesn't-

I don't care if we haven't had a stable -NAO in 20 years....show me an east-based weak la nina event under the back drop of a -QBO nearing a solar minimum, along with a favorable Atlantic sst profile during the previous May-August timeframe, and I'll show you some winter blocking.

That begin said....it hasn't verified yet.

we are more on the same page than I imagined

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

we are more on the same page than I imagined

I get the whole persistence mindset, though...maybe cause to temper expectations, which is never a bad idea, anyway..

But, yea....I think we block.

Doesn't mean we won't have a month of +NAO and/or furnace, though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I'll be interested in the weeklies today. JMHO, but I think the blocking goes away in December..but we get perhaps a -EPO type look. I don't think this blocking will be sustained...perhaps a cold reload into Canada for December.

Of course you do, Mazz.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Of course you do, Mazz.

  Just my thoughts. I did say we could see more of a -EPO type look as it's replaced. Not a bad thing. If  this is from a bottom up deal..I'm just not sure it's sustainable for a long time. I have always mentioned the upper level/strat is something that could allow for these wave break, bottom up deals...unlike previous years. I'm just not sold on multi-week blocks at the moment. I don't think that's unreasonable. It's not persistence either. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

  Just my thoughts. I did say we could see more of a -EPO type look as it's replaced. Not a bad thing. If  this is from a bottom up deal..I'm just not sure it's sustainable for a long time. I have always mentioned the upper level/strat is something that could allow for these wave break, bottom up deals...unlike previous years. I'm just not sold on multi-week blocks at the moment. I don't think that's unreasonable. It's not persistence either. 

No it, isn't....I just always know the tone of your posts before I read it.....everyone was basking in the glow of an epic late fall pattern, and then I get the bad news by way of a notification that CoastalWx has just replied..a soaking wet fart promptly sweeps through the church like a gust front clearing the nation's heartland...so violent that Wiz fires up a thread and begins to chase it.

[Go Kart Mozart]

The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down....

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Of course you do, Mazz.

did you mention 12/06/81? lol and 12/6/96, the big dogs are in Dec, too bad we didn't have this in a couple of weeks

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, too early...blows.

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, too early...blows.

12 Z euro with a bowling ball headed south, interesting for sure

[LurkerBoy]

LR rebound? Or pattern stability?

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I was taking into account that it was 2 weeks from now. 11/20-11/25 is still pretty early...it's better than 11/10, but you still need a lot going right. Just look at the climo of snowfalls more than 6" for dates before 11/25....even for ORH. It's not that easy. It's doable, but I'd probably not really get that into it until there's actually some guidance that screams snowstorm and it's inside 4 days. Not saying you are calling for snowstorms, but just in general for everyone on here, I think expectations should be tempered. I'll say that it is a good sign we're already seeing early blocking...even if it's wave-breaking. It shows it can be done.

 

The 80s actually had a couple of decent Thanksgiving-ish events, even in Foxboro.   Of course, living where I do now, I have had a decent number of later November snows.  The one a couple/three years ago was awesome

[40/70 Benchmark]

Novie 1989 was great....2014 was ok.

[Sugarloaf1989]

43 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down....

Of the big lake they call gitchee gumee.

[CoastalWx]

50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No it, isn't....I just always know the tone of your posts before I read it.....everyone was basking in the glow of an epic late fall pattern, and then I get the bad news by way of a notification that CoastalWx has just replied..a soaking wet fart promptly sweeps through the church like a gust front clearing the nation's heartland...so violent that Wiz fires up a thread and begins to chase it.

LOL, I think you are too in love with blocking. If we see a -EPO and fresh supply of cold in Canada vs marine 528 garbage thicknesses north of Ottawa...it won't be a bad thing. If this last through December, I will be happy to bow down and claim I am not worthy.  You have Mike Vs analogs for similar looking patterns lasting through December, on your side.

[CoastalWx]

It's also funny our boy Cohen misses the best block in years. 

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No it, isn't....I just always know the tone of your posts before I read it.....everyone was basking in the glow of an epic late fall pattern, and then I get the bad news by way of a notification that CoastalWx has just replied..a soaking wet fart promptly sweeps through the church like a gust front clearing the nation's heartland...so violent that Wiz fires up a thread and begins to chase it.

Pure gold!

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL, I think you are too in love with blocking. If we see a -EPO and fresh supply of cold in Canada vs marine 528 garbage thicknesses north of Ottawa...it won't be a bad thing. If this last through December, I will be happy to bow down and claim I am not worthy.  You have Mike Vs analogs for similar looking patterns lasting through December, on your side.

I haven't forecast anything yet.

Reserve judgment for Saturday.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down....

oh my god - ahaha...I saw that run and the internal monologue went like, "jesus, that's deeper than the Edmund Fitzgeral sunk"   funny -yeah.

while we're fantasizing... can you imagine taking that exact same deep layer and surface construct and plunking it 22 naut miles ESE of Montauk ? 

two words:    dead meat

 

[Typhoon Tip]

any takers that sucker ends up smeared and further east ?  

this run of the Euro has no interest in -NAO and ...heh, a, that's out way beyond it's wheel-house of fear inspiring one-eyed monster accuracy ... and b, the entire GEFs system would have to bow to 'way beyond it's wheel-house of fear inspiring accuracy one-eyed monster accuracy' to get a stem-wound climate molding 500 year event like that...

 

yeeeah...i'm takin the against on that bet -

[Typhoon Tip]

35 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The 80s actually had a couple of decent Thanksgiving-ish events, even in Foxboro.   Of course, living where I do now, I have had a decent number of later November snows.  The one a couple/three years ago was awesome

The 1980s were putrid ...particularly after '84 ... but one thing they did boost in that last 6 years of that forgotten decade were some November goodies...  Sorta like cutsie ancillary mercy bonuses for the apoplectic ass pounding the rest of those winters would inevitably bring... 

I think it was November 1986, ... we had a crisp day at 48 to 52 and as the sun was setting, marcrel sky.   While that was happening, a flat, open wave with a absolute pig v-max (seriously, like 45) was fisting its way through skies over the southern Lakes.  Cleveland report thunder snow (per weather channel)...  Meanwhile, winter storm watch went up for our overnight ...the whole thing was a poorly modeled intense A. Clipper... When that suck nosed over the water near the Jersey coast, that was probably one of the most explosive cyclonesis events I've ever seen...probably in the top 5 for me ... (Dec 2005 is in that cluster).  

Anyway, CCB head expanded with incredible rapidity and everyone east of about a EEN-HFD line got clipped by 1 to 4" per hour rates between 1am and dawn.  Man, for a teenage larval weather dweeb that was the wet ...well, white dream.   I think Brockton Ma actually wound up with 15" out of that thing.   The rest of that winter... gauge out my mother f eyes putrosity ...which isn't a word but should be, the definition of which reads, winter like 1986.  f you!

annywho, then there was a 10" of snow and 1/2" slow in that nor-easter that was supposed to turn to rain but didn't...   that's one for the annuls right there - failing to turn to rain. That almost never happens in that direction. But it turned to snow sleet mix then just sort of ended as flurries and temps in the upper 20s.  That was thanks giving in 1989 I believe.  

 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The 1980s were putrid ...particularly after '84 ... but one thing they did boost in that last 6 years of that forgotten decade were some November goodies...  Sorta like cutsie ancillary mercy bonuses for the apoplectic ass pounding the rest of those winters would inevitably bring... 

I think it was November 1986, ... we had a crisp day at 48 to 52 and as the sun was setting, marcrel sky.   While that was happening, a flat, open wave with a absolute pig v-max (seriously, like 45) was fisting its way through skies over the southern Lakes.  Cleveland report thunder snow (per weather channel)...  Meanwhile, winter storm watch went up for our overnight ...the whole thing was a poorly modeled intense A. Clipper... When that suck nosed over the water near the Jersey coast, that was probably one of the most explosive cyclonesis events I've ever seen...probably in the top 5 for me ... (Dec 2005 is in that cluster).  

Anyway, CCB head expanded with incredible rapidity and everyone east of about a EEN-HFD line got clipped by 1 to 4" per hour rates between 1am and dawn.  Man, for a teenage larval weather dweeb that was the wet ...well, white dream.   I think Brockton Ma actually wound up with 15" out of that thing.   The rest of that winter... gauge out my mother f eyes putrosity ...which isn't a word but should be, the definition of which reads, winter like 1986.  f you!

annywho, then there was a 10" of snow and 1/2" slow in that nor-easter that was supposed to turn to rain but didn't...   that's one for the annuls right there - failing to turn to rain. That almost never happens in that direction. But it turned to snow sleet mix then just sort of ended as flurries and temps in the upper 20s.  That was thanks giving in 1989 I believe.  

 

The 2nd one your thinking about is prob Vets Day '87...the T-day '89 storm was pretty much cold powder wire to wire. I don't recall any changeover forecasted in that one.

 

Funny you mention 1986, there was actually two events that November. The first one though was kind of just a wave along a sloped front...I don't want to quite call it anafrontal, but close. Probably a little more circulation to it that pure anafront...but it was more marginal and the coast didn't get much, but there was 4-7" inland.

 

BTW here's your crazy clipper in 1986 at 4pm the day before it hits...funny how it look benign there, but when you look at 500mb map, you think "oh god, whats going to happen when that hits the bathwater south of LI":

 

 

[RedSky]

1986-87 was the best winter down here of that Luciferian decade

 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, RedSky said:

1986-87 was the best winter down here of that Luciferian decade

 

Probably in southern New England as well...though 1981-1982 could make a case on some parts of the coast as being better....or if you value cold more...it was a much colder winter.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro ensembles are still quite -NAOish out in the 11-15. Gets going around D9-10.