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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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50 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

With the blanket of warming that has happened all over the globe in the last 20 years, I think we can upgrade all climo stats to lower pressureskew these days. Maybe a whole category. In other words, Cat 3 = Cat 4, etc. Plus this is one the best looking hurricanes in the beginning stages maybe ever.

Perhaps, all other variables being held constant. I haven't seen literature where this issue is examined in great detail. Research is probably ongoing.

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2 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Actually,  it's officially another 20 knots needed to attain category-five intensity (140 knots/157 mph).  

Have you ever seen an advisory state a hurricane's wind velocity in anything other than 5mph increments? And if so, when? I ask only because I've been a weather geek longer than you've been alive and don't ever recall it being done. Not saying it's never happened, only that I have no recollection of it ever being done.

I bring this up because the knot to mph conversion does not often fit that 5mph-stepped advisory convenience. If a hurricane was measured at precisely 140kts, would the public advisory round that off, not to the nearest 5mph step of 155 but upward to the 5mph step of 160 that meets Cat 5 criteria?

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5 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Turks and Caicos island are going to be in trouble. Might get in the strongest part of the storm on projected track.

The northern islands are less than 36 hours away from the brunt and should be of immediate concern if it doesn't gain some latitude tomorrow and even then it's going to be really close.

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4 minutes ago, yoda said:

48 is north of PR... southern side of Irma gets PR straight on

Western side of circulation provides strong onshore flow with upslope over the NW Cordillera. Would be some crazy orographic lift and flooding rains for areas over the Northern coast of the island. 

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The northern islands are less than 36 hours away from the brunt and should be of immediate concern if it doesn't gain some latitude tomorrow and even then it's going to be really close.


Yup and they are running out of time. Not going to go well for them I'm afraid.

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1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said:

Hr 96 looks like she may be wanting to pay a little visit to Cuba.

Out to 108. She's brushing coast on southern side, but core of circulation still offshore. Cat 5 in the southern Straits

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Cosmetic changes with departing northeast trough, but clearly well on the way to another devastating run for somebody in the US.

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