Major Hurricane Irma

[wxmx]

SFMR up to 126kts

[donsutherland1]

50 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck said:

With the blanket of warming that has happened all over the globe in the last 20 years, I think we can upgrade all climo stats to lower pressureskew these days. Maybe a whole category. In other words, Cat 3 = Cat 4, etc. Plus this is one the best looking hurricanes in the beginning stages maybe ever.

Perhaps, all other variables being held constant. I haven't seen literature where this issue is examined in great detail. Research is probably ongoing.

[Bryan63]

 

[Hazey]

Turks and Caicos island are going to be in trouble. Might get in the strongest part of the storm on projected track.

[friedmators]

GFS a nudge S @ 18

[Silver Meteor]

2 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Actually,  it's officially another 20 knots needed to attain category-five intensity (140 knots/157 mph).  

Have you ever seen an advisory state a hurricane's wind velocity in anything other than 5mph increments? And if so, when? I ask only because I've been a weather geek longer than you've been alive and don't ever recall it being done. Not saying it's never happened, only that I have no recollection of it ever being done.

I bring this up because the knot to mph conversion does not often fit that 5mph-stepped advisory convenience. If a hurricane was measured at precisely 140kts, would the public advisory round that off, not to the nearest 5mph step of 155 but upward to the 5mph step of 160 that meets Cat 5 criteria?

[yoda]

WNW movement between 24 and 36... going to be super close for PR

[DopplerWx]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

WNW movement between 24 and 36... going to be super close for PR

at 48 it is north of PR

[friedmators]

Still a nudge S @ 48 but 9 mb deeper.

[yoda]

48 is north of PR... southern side of Irma gets PR straight on

[Jackstraw]

5 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Turks and Caicos island are going to be in trouble. Might get in the strongest part of the storm on projected track.

The northern islands are less than 36 hours away from the brunt and should be of immediate concern if it doesn't gain some latitude tomorrow and even then it's going to be really close.

[yoda]

Going to miss DR/Haiti just to the north at 66

[MillvilleWx]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

48 is north of PR... southern side of Irma gets PR straight on

Western side of circulation provides strong onshore flow with upslope over the NW Cordillera. Would be some crazy orographic lift and flooding rains for areas over the Northern coast of the island. 

[Hazey]

The northern islands are less than 36 hours away from the brunt and should be of immediate concern if it doesn't gain some latitude tomorrow and even then it's going to be really close.

Yup and they are running out of time. Not going to go well for them I'm afraid.

[DopplerWx]

pretty much identical to 18z at 72hr

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Looks to be running on the left of center of the ens spread. Will be interesting to see if it keeps moving that way over the next two days. 

[lakeeffectkid383]

2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

pretty much identical to 18z at 72hr

Looks about 50mi south of 18z by hr 81, WAR looks a tad stronger this run.

 

[MillvilleWx]

Touch further south and bit stronger by hour 78. WAR is ever so slightly stronger, but no major differences so far.  

Edit: Ninja'd

[lakeeffectkid383]

Hr 96 looks like she may be wanting to pay a little visit to Cuba.

 

edit: hr 105 she looks to go just north of Cuba. 

[hawkeye_wx]

The eyewall convection cloud tops are really getting cold now.

[SteveVa]

hr 102 Irma scraping Cuba, future Jose also trending south

[DopplerWx]

just rakes the coast of cuba thru 108, def further south.

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said:

Hr 96 looks like she may be wanting to pay a little visit to Cuba.

Out to 108. She's brushing coast on southern side, but core of circulation still offshore. Cat 5 in the southern Straits

[MattPetrulli]

00z GFS says tropical storm conditions being felt in FL by midday Saturday. 

[MillvilleWx]

Trough over NE a bit more elongated, but strength fairly similar.

[MattPetrulli]

 

[Hoosier]

Cosmetic changes with departing northeast trough, but clearly well on the way to another devastating run for somebody in the US.

[MillvilleWx]

NW progression at 80W. Keys are about to get hammered in next few frames. 

[yoda]

Am I wrong, or is Irma being tugged N/NW at 120?

[MattPetrulli]

Hurricane conditions begin early Sunday morning according to 00z GFS.