friedmators Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Should get a real nice shot of her eye once she gets north of PR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Ukie still takes the cuba trip. So my only real UK access are the meteo maps and they 1) aren't great and 2) aren't even out yet for the eastern caribbean. How is the UK doing short term? Like, is it north of PR and the DR then kinda curves back into Cuba a bit or is it south the whole way? Just wondering if there's anything we can infer from the shorter term movement. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Disc said: Gusting to 106mph right now. https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IVISTTHO2 Note that station is located at 217 ft on an exposed ridgeline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 12z GEFS members in good agreement now with the OP Still a camp of slower members that hit Florida further West, but I think me might be getting close to a consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, bobbutts said: Note that station is located at 217 ft on an exposed ridgeline. Looks to be real close if this station gets the EW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 TIST looks like it stopped reporting an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: 12z GEFS members in good agreement now with the OP Still a camp of slower members that hit Florida further West, but I think me might be getting close to a consensus. Confidence seems to be increasing, but the track we're becoming more confident in has a huge range of impacts still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jtm12180 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 33 minutes ago, Stebo said: Maybe older ones, but that is 28 years ago, a generation ago. I'm 36 now...I remember it vividly! Surfside/Garden City looked like Hiroshima. The forest where the eye hit was nothing but 25-30' tall sticks. It's what took my interest in extreme weather from being intrigued to becoming a full blown fanatic! heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 For Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Here is a good FB page that my friend who lives in St. Thomas told me to follow for video and live updates there. https://m.facebook.com/groups/241455502718865 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wbsander Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 28 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said: If you're talking about The Battery that's a bit of an exaggeration... severely damaged then repaired yes. Destroyed and replaced with something new, not as much. I'd be more worried about people in GA and south/central SC not evacuating because Matthew ended up not being that bad and assuming that this would be more of the same. The Charleston area was limited to scattered tree damage and power was already restored to large areas within 24 hours of the center passing by. The strength of this one as it reaches and then passes Florida is going to be a big factor here. I own a home in Sea Pines on Hilton Head. Like Charleston, I can attest that we got pummeled by Matthew, and everyone is very worried right now, as this is looking like Matthew's nasty big sister. Our only saving grace may be that Matthew took down a lot of the more vulnerable trees. Took down two old loblolly pines in my front yard, the live oaks fared much better island wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 This station on Buck Island should narrowly miss Irma's eyewall, but it's recording spectacular wind data nonetheless: http://www.windalert.com/spot/48691 NNW 90 (5-minute average) gusting to 124 mph as I type this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, Dunkman said: So my only real UK access are the meteo maps and they 1) aren't great and 2) aren't even out yet for the eastern caribbean. How is the UK doing short term? Like, is it north of PR and the DR then kinda curves back into Cuba a bit or is it south the whole way? Just wondering if there's anything we can infer from the shorter term movement. Thanks! Here's a better look at the 00z Ukie (12z will take a while still). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 000 WTNT61 KNHC 061657 TCUAT1 Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 100 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017 ...100 PM AST POSITION UPDATE... ...EYE OF IRMA PASSING OVER THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS... A wind gust to 110 mph (177 km/h) has recently been reported at Buck Island in the U.S. Virgin Islands. A NOAA National Ocean Service observing site at Charlotte Amalie in the U.S. Virgin Islands recently reported a wind gust to 82 mph (131 km/hr) SUMMARY OF 100 PM AST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 64.5W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB...27.17 INCHES $$ Forecaster Zelinsky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wbsander Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I've been a member here for a long time, I rarely if ever post and I appreciate all the information I am able to pick up from you all. As I posted recently I have a house near the southern end of Hilton Head. Can someone give me a time estimate based on these most recent models for when the storm reaches the GA/SC border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahofan Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 St. John, USVI about an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, wbsander said: I've been a member here for a long time, I rarely if ever post and I appreciate all the information I am able to pick up from you all. As I posted recently I have a house near the southern end of Hilton Head. Can someone give me a time estimate based on these most recent models for when the storm reaches the GA/SC border? Per NHC earliest arrival of tropical storm force winds would be Sunday during the day, I recommend you just keep up with NHC's website, they're the best in the business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, wbsander said: I've been a member here for a long time, I rarely if ever post and I appreciate all the information I am able to pick up from you all. As I posted recently I have a house near the southern end of Hilton Head. Can someone give me a time estimate based on these most recent models for when the storm reaches the GA/SC border? Around dinnertime/evening on Monday for actual landfall, a lot earlier than that for tropical storm winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, mahofan said: St. John, USVI about an hour ago. cuts out right as it's getting good...figures... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 18 minutes ago, bobbutts said: Note that station is located at 217 ft on an exposed ridgeline. The anemometer has since snapped off after the 113mph gust. Only getting wind direction now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, wbsander said: I've been a member here for a long time, I rarely if ever post and I appreciate all the information I am able to pick up from you all. As I posted recently I have a house near the southern end of Hilton Head. Can someone give me a time estimate based on these most recent models for when the storm reaches the GA/SC border? You can find the official product here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145453.shtml?mltoa34#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jgf Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 12Z GFS with WaveWatch III significant wave height in meters 18m - probably the biggest i have ever seen it forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Strong consensus so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Raw T# back up to 7.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: Raw T# back up to 7.1 I was wondering if the improved radar appearance in the last couple hours was it getting better organized or moving into a location where the radar can sample it better. Guessing it's probably a bit of both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 San Juan is right on the edge of the core now, conditions should be deteriorating there rapidly. The airport is already gusting over 50MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, bobbutts said: I was wondering if the improved radar appearance in the last couple hours was it getting better organized or moving into a location where the radar can sample it better. Guessing it's probably a bit of both. Oddly, the picture I posted is not updated. Does this show the updated version? I screens hotted it instead of copy pasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Strong consensus so far today. That's Miami, North Miami Beach, Hollywood, Fort Lauderdale all the way up to Jupiter and Hobe Sound slam. I could see a track similar to Jeanne or Frances circa 2004 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Picking up 157kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 15 minutes ago, WishingForWarmWeather said: Raw T# back up to 7.1 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt11L.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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