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downeastnc

Hurricane Irma

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5 minutes ago, ThePhotoGuy said:

We were planning our vacation to the Outer Banks (Nags Head), NC on Saturday. We haven't decided if we are going to make the trip down due to the storm. Any thoughts based on the potential track on what it would be like? Based on what I have seen maybe some rain and some wind but nothing to significant?

Pack a umbrella and life insurance policy/will! 

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27 minutes ago, ThePhotoGuy said:

We were planning our vacation to the Outer Banks (Nags Head), NC on Saturday. We haven't decided if we are going to make the trip down due to the storm. Any thoughts based on the potential track on what it would be like? Based on what I have seen maybe some rain and some wind but nothing to significant?

Honestly, you'll probably be fine. Just obviously keep an eye on the track in the next few days 

If it tracks the way it's currently forecast, you'll just get some rain and wind like you said. If the track starts to bend NE in the next day or so, then watch out.

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4 minutes ago, timnc910 said:

Gefs means from 12z to 18z 54c4b48fe727b5aa08a30dfa008a8e72.jpg906aab94456a0a283a98cf436cb51a9a.jpg

Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk
 

That's a rather large change. More coming to NC and upstate SC. Is nice seeing some OTS show up though. 

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That image abovenof the 18z makes me nervous even. That black line. Shivers. That's coming right at me in Raleigh.  This is why I can't shake the feeling that I can't trust anything. 

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1 hour ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

Due to this high, can we be reasonably certain that any trend NE would be limited? I'm asking because it seems like so many of these storms end up trending further to the East at the last minute. It's also why NC has been hit so many times in recent history as opposed to SC/GA.

Is the OTS scenario a pipe dream at this point?

Well usually the right of track bias we see with north moving TC off the SE coast is because of the normal westerlies...almost all the storms that I can remember coming up the SE coast tended to be right of track due to that...this looks to be a exception once the NE high comes into play....I would not be surprised to see Irma moving N or even NNE for a time as she comes up the coast...the models even hint at it....so depending on how/when that high moves in and out for that matter will be what gets her going more NW....if the high is weaker or faster then she will go further north and stay mostly NNW or N after landfall, if its stronger slower etc she will get pushed NW well well inland and stall a bit...the models have been kinda all over with it, but they all have the high and chances of a escape completely OTS is probably fairly slim. 

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That black line makes me happy I bought a generator and am sitting here fully prepped except for some more bread and milk for the kids and a couple bottles of wine :)

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As we prepare for the main events of the 0z model suite I'd just like to point out that the GFS is even losing to the freaking CMC now. America!

(also shout out to the Navy for having all of the worst 3 models) (and the HMON for tarnishing the GFDL's good name)

mae.png

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3 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Buckeye.   I have a place on Fripp Island that took significant damage last year with Matthew.  Basically the eye wall tan right into Harbor And Fripp Islands.  It was a category 2 at best at low tide and did tremendous damage out our way. 

This area is extremely low.  Look at the tidal flood maps.   The entire area is under water with a category 3.  Look up the deveatstion of the 1893 hurricane in the area.  Over 3000 killed.  

Watch this storm carefully and get out if the current trends continue. 

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With storms this size they make their own path. If the storms turns north like models have been showing then it doesn't turn on a dime. Hugo, Andrew created their on paths 

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8 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Well usually the right of track bias we see with north moving TC off the SE coast is because of the normal westerlies...almost all the storms that I can remember coming up the SE coast tended to be right of track due to that...this looks to be a exception once the NE high comes into play....I would not be surprised to see Irma moving N or even NNE for a time as she comes up the coast...the models even hint at it....so depending on how/when that high moves in and out for that matter will be what gets her going more NW....if the high is weaker or faster then she will go further north and stay mostly NNW or N after landfall, if its stronger slower etc she will get pushed NW well well inland and stall a bit...the models have been kinda all over with it, but they all have the high and chances of a escape completely OTS is probably fairly slim. 

Yea, I've tracked a lot of storms over the years, but this one seems different. It's interesting most models are now depicting a NW movement (as opposed to N or NNE) after landfall. Climo says that most storms don't do that. But I think most of the majors have. (Hugo and Fran come immediately to mind)

 

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1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

I'm at hour 51 but the NAM is useless currently in this part of the storm in my opinion. 

Thanks. I wouldn't say useless. Right now it's a matter of getting info from all espeacilly ensembles and looking for pin point consensus then consistency. But yes it doesn't carry weight like Ukie and euro so I get your drift.. 

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23 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

As we prepare for the main events of the 0z model suite I'd just like to point out that the GFS is even losing to the freaking CMC now. America!

(also shout out to the Navy for having all of the worst 3 models) (and the HMON for tarnishing the GFDL's good name)

mae.png

Which line on here is the GFS?

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The problem is they all bounce around in the Bahamas run to run and unfortunately that is the crucial timing that we need the most guidance on....the NAM looks to be turning north over Andros....but its a good 50 miles or so west of the previous run but they all are doing that and that 50 miles is kind of a big deal for downstream....and especially for Miami and SE Florida. 

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6 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Thanks. I wouldn't say useless. Right now it's a matter of getting info from all espeacilly ensembles and looking for pin point consensus then consistency. But yes it doesn't carry weight like Ukie and euro so I get your drift.. 

Yeah you know what I mean. It being this far out at sea. I think the closer Irma gets the better the model will have a handle on things. Especially when we get in under 48 hours from landfall or at least the north turn.

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5 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The problem is they all bounce around in the Bahamas run to run and unfortunately that is the crucial timing that we need the most guidance on....the NAM looks to be turning north over Andros....but its a good 50 miles or so west of the previous run but they all are doing that and that 50 miles is kind of a big deal for downstream....and especially for Miami and SE Florida. 

Yep very good assessment. Too much in the way of turning here or turning there. West to east. 50 miles is a huge difference especially talking about a FL landfall. Shoot 25 miles is a big deal. 

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1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

Yep very good assessment. Too much in the way of turning here or turning there. West to east. 50 miles is a huge difference especially talking about a FL landfall. Shoot 25 miles is a big deal. 

Basically we wont know for sure until she friggen turns.....Miami just needs to hope she turns far enough out to keep the hurricane winds offshore....

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Just now, downeastnc said:

Basically we wont know for sure until she friggen turns.....Miami just needs to hope she turns far enough out to keep the hurricane winds offshore....

Yeah I agree. This thing is going to have to come a lot closer to FL I believe before we can really grasp when the turn will happen. The trough will need to be kept an eye on also. Lots of little/big players on the board.

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Just now, Met1985 said:

Yeah I agree. This thing is going to have to come a lot closer to FL I believe before we can really grasp when the turn will happen. The trough will need to be kept an eye on also. Lots of little/big players on the board.

The Nam keeps the center 120 miles off the Florida coast that would spare them hurricane force winds being its the west side, heck they might not even gust much higher than 75 on that track....

If the NAM is right about the trough still hanging out over NE  and that ULL over New Orleans then Irma is gonna scoot N or NNE even pretty quickly 

namconus_z500_vort_seus_50.thumb.png.a970720438157d3af164996f65d99ef9.png

 

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