Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Got a feeling we'll see a bit of a correction tomorrow... that was a big shift south since this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Looking at 700mb winds in the GFS output, found 156 kts or 180 mph. Per the NHC you can take away 10-20 percent from 700mb to get surface winds. 15 percent off that has 155mph winds sitting over Miami at 174. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 But the UKMET and CMC....That whole run does not make sense in any way shape or form. First h5 and h25 just don't make sense for the surface depiction. Also, the storm is going directly over cuba and maintains category 5 intensity, with those mountains? And more... Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, Wow said: Got a feeling we'll see a bit of a correction tomorrow... that was a big shift south since this morning Agreed. Wed be foolish not to expect one. This still has time to go ots and never touch land except for some islands in the bahamas. It's all about the trough and Bermuda HP. 50 to 100 miles or 1 to 3 hours timing differences of when a trough lifts it or vice versa is delayed etc has huge implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 UKIE is still a bit more south but the GFS is finally getting a clue.The ULL may or may not yank this inland,we'll see. BTW,the lowest pressure ever recorded on the continental US is 892mb set by the great Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 that hit the Fla Keys.If you believe the GFS,this will shatter it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Look like the writing is on the wall with this one... Euro is the outlier at this moment. .. This storm is going for the gulf.. u know its early but hard to bet against all the other global models showing the exact same solution this is going to Florida or the gulf no way this storm has a chance to landfall near nc..Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, timnc910 said: Look like the writing is on the wall with this one... Euro is the outlier at this moment. .. This storm is going for the gulf.. u know its early but hard to bet against all the other global models showing the exact same solution this is going to Florida or the gulf no way this storm has a chance to landfall near nc.. Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk If this is all you have to add to the discussion, read more and post less. The amount of wrong in your post should have you weenie tagged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, timnc910 said: Look like the writing is on the wall with this one... Euro is the outlier at this moment. .. This storm is going for the gulf.. u know its early but hard to bet against all the other global models showing the exact same solution this is going to Florida or the gulf no way this storm has a chance to landfall near nc.. Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Hard to imagine it getting much further west, there is still a strong ridge in Tx that will limit that. It's sandwiched between stout ridges north/east/west..but the EPS has a stronger Tx ridge and weaker atlantic ridge which is why it's mean is further east and shows so many members that miss right. Also, the GEFS scoots out the ull in the NE quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Looks like EPS largely stayed the same with the member spread shrinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Looks like EPS largely stayed the same with the member spread shrinking. The westward trend has her coming awfully close to shredderola island That's a crazy north movement with her becoming so large and all of the steering currents not being too horribly strong(near her) for too long as they scoot out. It will be fascinating to watch though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said: The westward trend has her coming awfully close to shredderola island That's a crazy north movement with her becoming so large and all of the steering currents not being too horribly strong(near her) for too long as they scoot out. It will be fascinating to watch though Yep...UK tracks it right over Hisp/Cuba. UK was the first model for Matthew last year that caught on to it hugging the FL coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 She sure is pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 7 hours ago, Wow said: Got a feeling we'll see a bit of a correction tomorrow... that was a big shift south since this morning Yeah its kinda like the NW trend for winter storms off the SE coast.....if there is ever a bias to these type of storms its the models always seem to delay the NW turn to long. That said there is a lot of agreement for the Cuba hit ATM, so its hard to argue against it. The upside for the US is if the storm does hit Cuba after riding just off Shreddanola the storm will be a shadow of its former self when it finally does go north...heck the GFS track would have it Cuba for over a day that would seriously weaken the system.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just noticed the Euro is really gung ho with Jose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 The sharp turn on the gfs and cmc is very problematic for forecasters and EM's. If that turn happens 150 to 200 miles sooner you end up with the euro op run. It could literally turn early and miss Florida. On top of that IF the gfs is right then where do you evac people to? It rides up the peninsula so everyone gets affected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 15 minutes ago, shaggy said: On top of that IF the gfs is right then where do you evac people to? It rides up the peninsula so everyone gets affected. That right there is an interesting thought. Where DO you go with them? Georgia? There's really nowhere east or west for them to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 17 minutes ago, shaggy said: The sharp turn on the gfs and cmc is very problematic for forecasters and EM's. If that turn happens 150 to 200 miles sooner you end up with the euro op run. It could literally turn early and miss Florida. On top of that IF the gfs is right then where do you evac people to? It rides up the peninsula so everyone gets affected. Yeah but the GFS track would really weaken the storm, it would be a Cat 1-2 leaving Cuba with a pretty disrupted core at best after spending 24 hrs riding down the spine of Cuba and over 2-3k ft tall mts....not sure how much it recovers crossing the FL staits but it damn sure isnt gonna be 895mb's going into Florida...then after 24 hrs over FL it will be a weak TS and not a 948 MB cane over north Fl like the GFS shows.. rain would be the big story then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 FL and GOM look much more likely this morning. I said this thing could go anywhere yesterday and look at that huge correction south and west I would stay on guard from NC south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 JMA lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 The shifts have been crazy. First from the Gulf to SC/NC to the Northeast back to SC/NC and now to Florida and maybe the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 What's that ULL gonna do with Irma? The one near Bermuda this AM? Anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 If Irma misses PR, Hospanola, Cuba then it's big trouble for SE. If it interacts with those landmass then US will dodge a big bullett. Still have some significant issues but nothing like what we will deal with if Irma can stay 100 miles north of those places. Looks to be going due west now no more southward motion. Next 48 to 72 hrs are going to be huge in determining the significance on US down the road. First hurdle is PR and I think it can avoid it enough not to have the storms maturation affected. Think 16.2 is as far south as NHC had it getting in 5 day cone. Plots will be very telling. If Irma gets into the bahamas unscaved it's gonna be a bad omen for alot of folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 MBY will go underwater if a cat 3 or higher heads this way according to NOAA's Storm Surge Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Look how the mean is just north of the op and avoids even the minor intreaction with Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said: If this is all you have to add to the discussion, read more and post less. The amount of wrong in your post should have you weenie tagged Lol, what did he say that was wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: MBY will go underwater if a cat 3 or higher heads this way according to NOAA's Storm Surge Map Where are you located, Hilton Head? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 The issue is the turn, the models are really quick to lift the trough out mid week on the last few runs, basically leaving Irma behind and stopping the NW motion. So in some aspects how she behaves now will impact her down the road a lot, the ens members that go up to the Carolinas keep her more W or even a bit WNW from here on out, the ones that go Cuba dig her deeper....if she doesnt get to 16.2 and stays west or even a bit north of west now then she will feel the trough more and get tugged north which will in turn allow the trough to keep her going on the NW turn.....these things always give the models fits as to when they turn when they approach like this...I got to decide whether I am going to spring for a generator and they are back ordered locally unless I want to go $800 and up on a gennie and I dont, so I have to Amazon prime one and that takes 3-5 days so if I am going to do it I need to order it by tomorrow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: The issue is the turn, the models are really quick to lift the trough out mid week on the last few runs, basically leaving Irma behind and stopping the NW motion. So in some aspects how she behaves now will impact her down the road a lot, the ens members that go up to the Carolinas keep her more W or even a bit WNW from here on out, the ones that go Cuba dig her deeper....if she doesnt get to 16.2 and stays west or even a bit north of west now then she will feel the trough more and get tugged north which will in turn allow the trough to keep her going on the NW turn.....these things always give the models fits as to when they turn when they approach like this...I got to decide whether I am going to spring for a generator and they are back ordered locally unless I want to go $800 and up on a gennie and I dont, so I have to Amazon prime one and that takes 3-5 days so if I am going to do it I need to order it by tomorrow.... I'd wait and pay close attn to the ukie and euro ens this afternoon. Like u stated I'd pay very micro detail to these short term plots and that trough strength. If u have the cash flow you can always re sale the generator or keep it in the garage like mine since 2000. Nice security convenience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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