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Rtd208

August 2017 Observations & Discussion Thread

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All the strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic since 2012 have waited until October to form. Be interesting to see if this pattern continues this year or we get the strongest hurricane of the season earlier.

 

Sandy was upgraded to cat 3 after the chart below was generated

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3 hours ago, Paragon said:

I can tell you lol.  Both March 1993 and winter 93-94 put down nearly 10 ft drifts near my house which is in the mtns west of Jim Thorpe (further south than you and closer to Allentown, but the elevation is like 2,200 ft- same as Albrightsville, averages about 70 inches of snow a year, like Mt. Pocono.)  We even had about a foot and a half of snow in the Jan 2016 storm, while back home in Nassau County we had about 32 inches. Allentown, one county to my south had a similar amt of snow.  I don't think Mt. Pocono got anything out of that storm.

The areas west of Jim Thorpe and near the state game lands/state forest are very high elevation, standing on the same ridge as Mt. Pocono. The slightly higher overall elevations near MPO compensate for the lower latitude compared to Northern Wayne Highlands/Endless Mountains. There are far more houses at 2000' there than our area...though Orson is probably the prime spot for my area, located in the high valley between Mt Ararat to the south (2657') and Sugarloaf Mtn to the north. They probably average near 80" a year, while Mt. Ararat is near 90".

To me, NE PA is way underestimated in terms of its scenic beauty/landscape as well as winter weather. The area has not had a lot of outstanding winters since 93-94/02-03/09-10...but there is potential for 3-foot snowpacks and -20F. I hit -20F in both January 2009 and January 2014 in Lake Como.

Also, Northern Wayne is probably about 80% forested as the farmland has ceded way to forest cover. A lot of white pine and birch mix in at the higher elevations, nice mixed forest. We routinely see egrets and blue heron flying around our lake, as well as the occasional eagle. Plenty of bear as well. Definitely a very healthy ecosystem with the low density population and halt in fracking.

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 Feels more like late August / early Sept recently. Waking up with a string of mornings in the 50s here. Even if we flip warmer than normal down the road (which I think we do), this is akin to having a warm pattern in the heart of winter; it really acts to shorten the severity of the season overall. Once we transition out of this pattern, averages are such that 90+ becomes increasingly anomalous. I think we will pick up a handful more 90s, and that will probably come in the Aug 20 - Sept 10 period.

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While I think Newark still has has a shot at a few more 90 degree days later in August, it's still on track to finish with a below normal number of 90 degree days.

Newark 90 degree days

Current...................................18

30 year average through 2016...29

2010's average........................33

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Anyone care to venture a forecast for tomorrow, Friday, at Montauk? I'm seeing Party Sunny with no chance of precip during the day. But with SE onshore flow, would you expect it to be Cloudy?

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78F still a comfortable day here.

So looks mostly cloudy for at least the first 2 nights of the Perseids and probably night 3, par for the course for celestial observations.

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

While I think Newark still has has a shot at a few more 90 degree days later in August, it's still on track to finish with a below normal number of 90 degree days.

Newark 90 degree days

Current...................................18

30 year average through 2016...29

2010's average........................33

What about one more heatwave? I'm betting we see a few more 90s this year but will we see another heatwave or is that over.

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On 8/10/2017 at 1:22 PM, SnoSki14 said:

What about one more heatwave? I'm betting we see a few more 90s this year but will we see another heatwave or is that over.

If it happens I hope it happens while I'm away during the 19th - 26th. I'm betting we don't have a heatwave! But we do see one 90 degree weather and 91 degrees.

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4 hours ago, nzucker said:

The areas west of Jim Thorpe and near the state game lands/state forest are very high elevation, standing on the same ridge as Mt. Pocono. The slightly higher overall elevations near MPO compensate for the lower latitude compared to Northern Wayne Highlands/Endless Mountains. There are far more houses at 2000' there than our area...though Orson is probably the prime spot for my area, located in the high valley between Mt Ararat to the south (2657') and Sugarloaf Mtn to the north. They probably average near 80" a year, while Mt. Ararat is near 90".

To me, NE PA is way underestimated in terms of its scenic beauty/landscape as well as winter weather. The area has not had a lot of outstanding winters since 93-94/02-03/09-10...but there is potential for 3-foot snowpacks and -20F. I hit -20F in both January 2009 and January 2014 in Lake Como.

Also, Northern Wayne is probably about 80% forested as the farmland has ceded way to forest cover. A lot of white pine and birch mix in at the higher elevations, nice mixed forest. We routinely see egrets and blue heron flying around our lake, as well as the occasional eagle. Plenty of bear as well. Definitely a very healthy ecosystem with the low density population and halt in fracking.

I have spent allot of time just north of you in Susquehanna county. My uncle has 120 acres at an elevation of about 1900' on top of a ridge. Incredible views. It's also a secret snow spot as they get the end of the lake effect bands similar to Binghamton. 93/94 there was epic, I remember a snow pack of about 5'. The march blizzard last year was 30" there as well. Unfortunately there is fracking everywhere up there. They are about to frack under my uncles property. The neighbors are dairy farmers with 350 acres, they are now multi millionaires as there is allot of money to be made from fracking. The question is what will the long term effects be? Short term allot of noise and truck traffic in an otherwise peaceful rural area.

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4 hours ago, nzucker said:

The areas west of Jim Thorpe and near the state game lands/state forest are very high elevation, standing on the same ridge as Mt. Pocono. The slightly higher overall elevations near MPO compensate for the lower latitude compared to Northern Wayne Highlands/Endless Mountains. There are far more houses at 2000' there than our area...though Orson is probably the prime spot for my area, located in the high valley between Mt Ararat to the south (2657') and Sugarloaf Mtn to the north. They probably average near 80" a year, while Mt. Ararat is near 90".

To me, NE PA is way underestimated in terms of its scenic beauty/landscape as well as winter weather. The area has not had a lot of outstanding winters since 93-94/02-03/09-10...but there is potential for 3-foot snowpacks and -20F. I hit -20F in both January 2009 and January 2014 in Lake Como.

Also, Northern Wayne is probably about 80% forested as the farmland has ceded way to forest cover. A lot of white pine and birch mix in at the higher elevations, nice mixed forest. We routinely see egrets and blue heron flying around our lake, as well as the occasional eagle. Plenty of bear as well. Definitely a very healthy ecosystem with the low density population and halt in fracking.

Yes indeed- that was the reason we bought a house in that region.  We explored the Lower Hudson Valley, CT, Eastern LI, etc., before selecting NE PA.  The views of the landscape and the later change of the foliage compared to areas further north really gives the area some amazing scenic views!  The house we bought is actually near Bear Creek Lake/ Penn Forest Township, in the mtns overlooking Jim Thorpe.

Glad to hear that there was a halt in fracking- that was one of my big concerns for the region!  Also no light pollution means you can see the Milky Way even before the sky is completely dark!

One of the really big snowstorms that I remember in the region is actually the October 2011 snowstorm, almost 20" of very wet snow that caused a lot of damage (and thundersnow!)

 

 

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31 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I have spent allot of time just north of you in Susquehanna county. My uncle has 120 acres at an elevation of about 1900' on top of a ridge. Incredible views. It's also a secret snow spot as they get the end of the lake effect bands similar to Binghamton. 93/94 there was epic, I remember a snow pack of about 5'. The march blizzard last year was 30" there as well. Unfortunately there is fracking everywhere up there. They are about to frack under my uncles property. The neighbors are dairy farmers with 350 acres, they are now multi millionaires as there is allot of money to be made from fracking. The question is what will the long term effects be? Short term allot of noise and truck traffic in an otherwise peaceful rural area.

Hope for no earthquakes like they are having in Oklahoma with all the fracking.  (And extremely expensive earthquake insurance!)  How far are you from the NY border?  Fracking is banned in NY State.  Thank you Cuomo!

How well did you guys do in snowfall a few years ago when Binghamton a set a record (both for single snowfall and seasonal totals)?

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2 hours ago, RedSky said:

78F still a comfortable day here.

So looks mostly cloudy for at least the first 2 nights of the Perseids and probably night 3, par for the course for celestial observations.

 

I was looking at long term forecasts (taken with a grain of salt of course) that are calling for cloudy conditions during the eclipse also, from Missouri to South Carolina.

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4 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 Feels more like late August / early Sept recently. Waking up with a string of mornings in the 50s here. Even if we flip warmer than normal down the road (which I think we do), this is akin to having a warm pattern in the heart of winter; it really acts to shorten the severity of the season overall. Once we transition out of this pattern, averages are such that 90+ becomes increasingly anomalous. I think we will pick up a handful more 90s, and that will probably come in the Aug 20 - Sept 10 period.

Had a low of 59 in late July which is almost unheard of in SW Nassau County.

Back in August 1986 when I saw my first Perseids meteor shower it was in the low 50s and felt like fall with crystal clear skies for four nights straight.  I thought every August would be like that back then lol.  I wonder when we'll see something like that again?

 

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

What about one more heatwave? I'm betting we see a few more 90s this year but will we see another heatwave or is that over.

We only had 3 heatwaves this year so far due to all the cloud cover showers especially closer to NYC. It's been easier to get a day or two at a time.

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6 hours ago, nzucker said:

The areas west of Jim Thorpe and near the state game lands/state forest are very high elevation, standing on the same ridge as Mt. Pocono. The slightly higher overall elevations near MPO compensate for the lower latitude compared to Northern Wayne Highlands/Endless Mountains. There are far more houses at 2000' there than our area...though Orson is probably the prime spot for my area, located in the high valley between Mt Ararat to the south (2657') and Sugarloaf Mtn to the north. They probably average near 80" a year, while Mt. Ararat is near 90".

To me, NE PA is way underestimated in terms of its scenic beauty/landscape as well as winter weather. The area has not had a lot of outstanding winters since 93-94/02-03/09-10...but there is potential for 3-foot snowpacks and -20F. I hit -20F in both January 2009 and January 2014 in Lake Como.

Also, Northern Wayne is probably about 80% forested as the farmland has ceded way to forest cover. A lot of white pine and birch mix in at the higher elevations, nice mixed forest. We routinely see egrets and blue heron flying around our lake, as well as the occasional eagle. Plenty of bear as well. Definitely a very healthy ecosystem with the low density population and halt in fracking.

It's amazing how much more snow and cold we get than the Avoca area which is not a reflection for northeastern Pa. During last March's blizzard almost every area from northern Lackawanna county into central Wayne and Susquehanna county had around 30 inches or more of snow while the Avoca area had only around 22 inches.

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3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

What about one more heatwave? I'm betting we see a few more 90s this year but will we see another heatwave or is that over.

I will bet money there is another heatwave at least IMBY this year..are people forgetting the last few August/Sept

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1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

I will bet money there is another heatwave at least IMBY this year..are people forgetting the last few August/Sept

We've also had double the 90s in the past few years vs. this summer, not every summer is going to be the same. 

However I'd be surprised if some hot spots don't make at least one more run at a heatwave this year. 

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4 hours ago, Paragon said:

Yes indeed- that was the reason we bought a house in that region.  We explored the Lower Hudson Valley, CT, Eastern LI, etc., before selecting NE PA.  The views of the landscape and the later change of the foliage compared to areas further north really gives the area some amazing scenic views!  The house we bought is actually near Bear Creek Lake/ Penn Forest Township, in the mtns overlooking Jim Thorpe.

Glad to hear that there was a halt in fracking- that was one of my big concerns for the region!  Also no light pollution means you can see the Milky Way even before the sky is completely dark!

One of the really big snowstorms that I remember in the region is actually the October 2011 snowstorm, almost 20" of very wet snow that caused a lot of damage (and thundersnow!)

 

 

They were considering fracking under our lake at one point, but the decline in oil prices, moratorium in NYS, and recent protection of the Delaware River Watershed has made fracking less of a threat. It is still happening some further west away from the Delaware near I-81. 

We also get a lot of 1-3/2-4 events from LES, though amounts are heavier near BGM and in Susquehanna. We are lakefront so we are in a high valley at 1500'..costs us a bit of snowfall compared to the 2000'+ ridgeline to our west. 

It will be interesting to see if March 2017 foretells a return to coastal huggers like Mar 93, Mar 94, Feb 07, Mar 07, Feb 10. That was the first event in a while that did not jackpot NYC/LI/CNJ. I got 10" in the South Bronx whereas Lake Como PA had 30"...we will see if storms continue trending west.

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9 minutes ago, nzucker said:

They were considering fracking under our lake at one point, but the decline in oil prices, moratorium in NYS, and recent protection of the Delaware River Watershed has made fracking less of a threat. It is still happening some further west away from the Delaware near I-81. 

We also get a lot of 1-3/2-4 events from LES, though amounts are heavier near BGM and in Susquehanna. We are lakefront so we are in a high valley at 1500'..costs us a bit of snowfall compared to the 2000'+ ridgeline to our west. 

It will be interesting to see if March 2017 foretells a return to coastal huggers like Mar 93, Mar 94, Feb 07, Mar 07, Feb 10. That was the first event in a while that did not jackpot NYC/LI/CNJ. I got 10" in the South Bronx whereas Lake Como PA had 30"...we will see if storms continue trending west.

There is something I see in NE PA that we don't get to experience a lot here in the tristate.  The weather will be clear driving west on I-80 and then when we get up in elevation near Mt Pocono you will get sudden bursts of snow and low visibility and then when we get down to our house there's a gentle light snow falling all day long and slowly accumulating.  You don't see that kind of unique beauty in NY much anymore.

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11 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Thank God Cuomo banned it. Fracking is a disaster for the environment and scenery.

Forecast high of 86F fell short in the Bronx due to cloud cover. Probably about 82/83 today, not as hot as yesterday though we got off to a warm start. Fairly comfortable night out though still may need A/C in upper floors of NYC buildings. 

Yes, and having driven through those regions where it happens, it's not a fun place to live.

It's been really nice this week.  Heat as its place, but I was getting extremely tired of all the humidity.  I like dry heat when there is heat, but now I'm almost ready for fall.  These early coastal events we've been having makes one think of fall and make it want to come sooner rather than later.

 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

We've also had double the 90s in the past few years vs. this summer, not every summer is going to be the same. 

However I'd be surprised if some hot spots don't make at least one more run at a heatwave this year. 

The real heat though was from 2010-13.

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8 hours ago, Paragon said:

Hope for no earthquakes like they are having in Oklahoma with all the fracking.  (And extremely expensive earthquake insurance!)  How far are you from the NY border?  Fracking is banned in NY State.  Thank you Cuomo!

How well did you guys do in snowfall a few years ago when Binghamton a set a record (both for single snowfall and seasonal totals)?

Ehhh... Fracking wells are banned but not the infrastructures used to frack and transport the gas via pipeline to PA. i.e the infamous massive CPV fracked gas power plant coming up in my town ( Wawayanda). Its literally a 5 min drive to my southeast. It will be up and running by early 2018. My O.C peeps know exactly what im talking about. 

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2 hours ago, snywx said:

Ehhh... Fracking wells are banned but not the infrastructures used to frack and transport the gas via pipeline to PA. i.e the infamous massive CPV fracked gas power plant coming up in my town ( Wawayanda). Its literally a 5 min drive to my southeast. It will be up and running by early 2018. My O.C peeps know exactly what im talking about. 

Natural Gas (methane) power plants are a relatively sustainable way of producing electricity and a much more ecological method than coal. They also do not create the high asthma risk and mercury risk that exists for those living near coal-fired plants. My issue is more with fracking than the use of natural gas. I have no problem with existing large traditional wells, but fracking injects chemicals into the ground and blights the landscape because it is so decentralized (i.e. tons of small wells versus one area of intensive production/high output wells). Natural gas should be used as a bridge towards renewables.

With oil prices at $48 and falling, and natural gas falling from $3.50 in mid June to $2.90 now, plus lower electricity demand with the cooler summers since 2013, there won't be a huge expansion of fracking. Fracking is only economically viable when energy prices are high, and all signs are that they continue to lower. Most of the new market share is going to alternatives such as offshore wind farms and homeowner installed solar.

The big question is with the Indian Point nuclear being decommissioned in the early 2020s, what will make up that market share? Will renewables be ready?

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These stuck weather patterns for extended periods of time continue to define the 2010's.

Euro 120hr rainfall

ecmwf_tprecip_neng_21.png.070fa948f5e0f675aa4cc8b79efd0d00.png

 

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These stuck weather patterns for extended periods of time continue to define the 2010's.

Euro 120hr rainfall

ecmwf_tprecip_neng_21.png.070fa948f5e0f675aa4cc8b79efd0d00.png

 

I feel like we are in a doughnut hole when it comes to heavier precipitation events, hope this doesn't go on for much longer.

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