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Christmas Storm I (general banter)

WeatherNC

By WeatherNC,
in Southeastern States

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CandymanColumbusGA

CandymanColumbusGA

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As a broadcast Met myself. I have a hard time looking and believing anything FFC says. BMX though is a different story because I believe they actually care about getting things right. I am a degreed Meteorologist, though I am not accustomed to forecasting snow (since I lived and grew up in Florida). Things are getting exciting here, because I believe we will see slight accumulations to the north. I am pulling for this thing to edge slightly to the west though. :)

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generelz

generelz

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As a broadcast Met myself. I have a hard time looking and believing anything FFC says. BMX though is a different story because I believe they actually care about getting things right. I am a degreed Meteorologist, though I am not accustomed to forecasting snow (since I lived and grew up in Florida). Things are getting exciting here, because I believe we will see slight accumulations to the north. I am pulling for this thing to edge slightly to the west though. :)

Hey, welcome to the board. If you are indeed a pro/degreed met you should PM one of the mods/admins with proof and get the red "met" or orange "pro forecaster" badge for your username.

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CandymanColumbusGA

CandymanColumbusGA

Posted
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Hey, welcome to the board. If you are indeed a pro/degreed met you should PM one of the mods/admins with proof and get the red "met" or orange "pro forecaster" badge for your username.

Thanks, and does graduating from Florida State count? I know it's a tropical school and love tracking the tropics, but being here in Columbus, I'm not used to this snow stuff. I have seen flurries TWICE and saw sleet for the first time ever last Wednesday... Not used to this cold at all! :)

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oconeexman

oconeexman

Posted
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Hurray, I seldom watch hin. David C I did just watch and he seems OK; at least he does not sound like an infomercial hawker!

Over here John Cessarich used to be the most popular until we all figured him out. He does his forecast off the NWS dico solely..I don't think he looks at models and such like most or some do. Now Andy Wood has taken over at FOX21 and is by far the best MET we have in the upstate!

I've been on his blog for 2 days straight and he depicts every model run just like these mets do on here. He changes his forecast according and puts up new webcast everytime something changes like this one has.

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oconeexman

oconeexman

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The trend I see is the GFS and NAM are getting closer to the European model. Literally the Euro was crushing eastern carolinas the most and the 12Z GFS did as well. The 18Z GFS came inland a little more so one run of this model is hardly a trend...i wouldn't panic a bit yet because yesterday it had nobody getting measurable snow.

So just hold tight folks...a long way to go, this time friday will be throw in the towel time or get the candles out depending!

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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Nice discussion. Anyone have any thoughts as to Eastern NC? I'm assuming this westward trend is lessening our chances??

If the trend stops now we are fine if it continures things get dicey. Keep in mind though most models are showing a 1980ish type storm so this is kinda uncharted territory, that said the ensembles dont have any runs with a low track that would be bad for us, just not as good ( 10" instead of 20" lol) as others lets hope that holds up with the 00Z.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

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Any of those folks on the radio from the southeast? Hope so or we are going to learn a lot about how the Mid-Atlantic gets snow.

DT is from SE VA, and tends to throw the SE bones every once and awhile... Wes and Will tend to focus on the MA and NE. Not calling in tonight, have family that should be pulling in the drive here in a few, but do plan on listening once again.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

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If the trend stops now we are fine if it continures things get dicey. Keep in mind though most models are showing a 1980ish type storm so this is kinda uncharted territory, that said the ensembles dont have any runs with a low track that would be bad for us, just not as good ( 10" instead of 20" lol) as others lets hope that holds up with the 00Z.

As I stated in the other thread, if a westward trend were to have any traction at this point, I would expect to see at-least one or two of the canadian and american ensemble members show it, and they do not. Furthermore, the fact that the Big 3 ens means (GFS, GGEM, and ECMWF) are offshore, and have been, consistently, tells me the likelihood of an inland track occurring at this range is unlikely. Sure, the surface low could track through the sound, but even then we would be far enough on the eastern side to stay mainly SN. Even if the low tracked through the coastal plain, we would have SN on the front and backside, with IP (not RN) as it passes over.

This is a very cold storm, somewhat unusual in that there is really no hint of a warm nose as the 0C 850 line, 540dm height line, and 32 surface temp are ingested into the immediate left side of the low. From everything I am seeing, i.e. thickness and soundings, this looks like an all SN event here, subject to change of course. We still have another 24 hrs our so left in the dead zone. I prefer a blend of the Big 3 ens means, until about 72 hours out, as it smoothes out the extremes and gives the general flavor. Inside of 72, we should start seeing the operational models converge on a solution, which they are already attempting to do with some agreement, and it looks to be just offshore.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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As I stated in the other thread, if a westward trend were to have any traction at this point, I would expect to see at-least one or two of the canadian and american ensemble members show it, and they do not. Furthermore, the fact that the Big 3 ens means (GFS, GGEM, and ECMWF) are offshore, and have been, consistently, tells me the likelihood of an inland track occurring at this range is unlikely. Sure, the surface low could track through the sound, but even then we would be far enough on the eastern side to stay mainly SN. Even if the low tracked through the coastal plain, we would have SN on the front and backside, with IP (not RN) as it passes over.

This is a very cold storm, somewhat unusual in that there is really no hint of a warm nose as the 0C 850 line, 540dm height line, and 32 surface temp are ingested into the immediate left side of the low. From everything I am seeing, i.e. thickness and soundings, this looks like an all SN event here, subject to change of course. We still have another 24 hrs our so left in the dead zone. I prefer a blend of the Big 3 ens means, until about 72 hours out, as it smoothes out the extremes and gives the general flavor. Inside of 72, we should start seeing the operational models converge on a solution, which they are already attempting to do with some agreement, and it looks to be just offshore.

Lets hope so, DT just posted a first call of sorts and he has us getting the sig part of the storm as rain this isnt good news, and I cant think of one instance were a low track through the sounds was good for us, again this is a epic low and the cold is off the charts so who knows but experiance tells me to bend over and get ready.

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UpStateCAD

UpStateCAD

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The trend I see is the GFS and NAM are getting closer to the European model. Literally the Euro was crushing eastern carolinas the most and the 12Z GFS did as well. The 18Z GFS came inland a little more so one run of this model is hardly a trend...i wouldn't panic a bit yet because yesterday it had nobody getting measurable snow.

So just hold tight folks...a long way to go, this time friday will be throw in the towel time or get the candles out depending!

So what do you think Oconee? Do we push our chips all in for the Euro since it has not blinked once since it started showing this bomb? Or do one of the pretender models score a coup? I say give me the Euro. If after the 0z tonite the Euro still shows us gettting a decent hit. I'm huncker down and ride it out, Just hope it will be one I rember for a LONG LONG time. Just don't want to lose power again...:arrowhead:

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

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Lets hope so, DT just posted a first call of sorts and he has us getting the sig part of the storm as rain this isnt good news, and I cant think of one instance were a low track through the sounds was good for us, again this is a epic low and the cold is off the charts so who knows but experiance tells me to bend over and get ready.

yeah, just saw his map, no love for the Coastal Plain... Not sure where he is getting that from, if anything it looks like a 17 west event. I have not seen any evidence thus far, that the central and northern Costal Plain are in for a mostly RN event. Maybe he knows something we don't, he does have the red tag and all... :snowman:

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RevDodd

RevDodd

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The folks at the NWS at Raleigh were saying that as long as the low itself doesn't stray ashore, everyone east of U.S. 220 should prosper. They also noted that in the latest run the system had very little warm support ashore, mainly winds with an east-northeast orientation.

PS: Verbatim the 18 GFS gives Wilson 18 inches and Faynam 12. No sure what the Bufkit had for y'all, but I can check...

EDIT: Twisterdata per the GFS 18 gives y'all at least a foot over the storm. Spots on the coast are 2-4 inches.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

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As I stated in the other thread, if a westward trend were to have any traction at this point, I would expect to see at-least one or two of the canadian and american ensemble members show it, and they do not. Furthermore, the fact that the Big 3 ens means (GFS, GGEM, and ECMWF) are offshore, and have been, consistently, tells me the likelihood of an inland track occurring at this range is unlikely. Sure, the surface low could track through the sound, but even then we would be far enough on the eastern side to stay mainly SN. Even if the low tracked through the coastal plain, we would have SN on the front and backside, with IP (not RN) as it passes over.

This is a very cold storm, somewhat unusual in that there is really no hint of a warm nose as the 0C 850 line, 540dm height line, and 32 surface temp are ingested into the immediate left side of the low. From everything I am seeing, i.e. thickness and soundings, this looks like an all SN event here, subject to change of course. We still have another 24 hrs our so left in the dead zone. I prefer a blend of the Big 3 ens means, until about 72 hours out, as it smoothes out the extremes and gives the general flavor. Inside of 72, we should start seeing the operational models converge on a solution, which they are already attempting to do with some agreement, and it looks to be just offshore.

All good points. Are there ever times that the operational picks-up on the trend before the ensemble members?

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oconeexman

oconeexman

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So what do you think Oconee? Do we push our chips all in for the Euro since it has not blinked once since it started showing this bomb? Or do one of the pretender models score a coup? I say give me the Euro. If after the 0z tonite the Euro still shows us gettting a decent hit. I'm huncker down and ride it out, Just hope it will be one I rember for a LONG LONG time. Just don't want to lose power again...:arrowhead:

I'm riding the Euro train right now with a side of Canadian and Ukie..unless we see some drastic changes in the next 24hrs I'd say WE are in for a significant snow here and to GSP.

I'm prepared to hunker and hope over these last few years of baby snows Blue Ridge and Duke have cut back enough trees!:guitar:

We will prob see a watch by late tomorrow if things continue as they have.

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