Christmas Storm I (general banter)

[Angie]

Anyone else here from the NC mtns? I'm approx. 25 miles south of Asheville. I'm looking forward to a white Christmas, but don't anticipate the storm being anything historical around here. Honestly, I don't want historical on Christmas day. Several inches would be great. Good luck to everyone wanting a massive snowfall. Santa will be bringing it to someone, for sure.

[feloniousq]

I can understand the desire among mets not to "bust", especially on a storm like this. I don't care as much about the discussion that's on this board or even for that matter NWS office reports. The percentage of the general population that reads either of those sources the way that all of us do is pretty tiny.

What people do see, for better or worse, are the TV and newspaper forecasts. That's where the problem lies I think. And those people have an ulterior motive to build ratings, page hits, etc.

The way the holidays fall with this storm and the days of the week this year is just as rare as the meteorological setup. For that reason, I think the responsible move, at least by TV types, is to quit with the teasing and say up front "Look, we can't say what's going to happen yet with this storm. Everything is in play for everyone, particularly the larger cities. We could see flurries or we could see two feet - both outcomes are still in the realm of possibility. Prepare accordingly and stay tuned if you can."

So-called "egg on the face" when a storm busts is by every possible measure a better outcome than a conservative forecast with no info being funneled to the public and then there being a historic snow with millions of people on the roads or stranded.

Folks, please consider your pets especially in a situation like this.

[chapelhillwx]

If RAH is going with the GFS, the no significant snow west of US1 makes sense.

[kanc2001]

my buddy's are trickling in to town for the holidays and want to go out on the town tonight and booze it up, all I want to do is sit on the couch with my laptop and watch the model pbp here on the board

[Hugo]

my buddy's are trickling in to town for the holidays and want to go out on the town tonight and booze it up, all I want to do is sit on the couch with my laptop and watch the model pbp here on the board

Go to Market Common. Wireless hotspot. Tell them you had to bring your laptop because you're working on a major project that's due by Christmas.

[Brick Tamland]

I can understand the desire among mets not to "bust", especially on a storm like this. I don't care as much about the discussion that's on this board or even for that matter NWS office reports. The percentage of the general population that reads either of those sources the way that all of us do is pretty tiny.

What people do see, for better or worse, are the TV and newspaper forecasts. That's where the problem lies I think. And those people have an ulterior motive to build ratings, page hits, etc.

The way the holidays fall with this storm and the days of the week this year is just as rare as the meteorological setup. For that reason, I think the responsible move, at least by TV types, is to quit with the teasing and say up front "Look, we can't say what's going to happen yet with this storm. Everything is in play for everyone, particularly the larger cities. We could see flurries or we could see two feet - both outcomes are still in the realm of possibility. Prepare accordingly and stay tuned if you can."

So-called "egg on the face" when a storm busts is by every possible measure a better outcome than a conservative forecast with no info being funneled to the public and then there being a historic snow with millions of people on the roads or stranded.

Thank you. That is exactly what I feel, too.

Also, it's funny that it seems the Euro is the one that usually says no way when it comes to snow and all the other models are showing a big storm, and the Euro is usually right. Now the Euro has been showing a big storm consistently for 3 or 4 days, and all of a sudden it's too extreme.

[GaffneyPeach]

I can't help but recall the '93 storm when talking about TV weather forecasts. Tony Dale, Channel 7 morning/miday weather anchor (not sure if he was a met or not), called that storm for 4 full days despite the fact that it wasn't in the evening forecasts. He nailed it! "It's going to snow, folks. It's going to snow a lot".

He left Channel 7 shortly after that. (not sure why LOL)

[Rankin5150]

YO! HOW MUCH FOR PHILLY? After you answer, I will CUSS YOU OUT. THANK GOD I am a SE Thread member. You all are the best!

[Brick Tamland]

I think DT (someguy) made a good point, too.

Lets think about that

the Model that ahs held course for 6 runs in a row

should be compromised with the model that 6 hours ago had the Low over Bermuda

and has shifted dramatically towards the Euro?

Really?

[iRoll]

I've been reading posts for some time and I have not noticed anyone here from the Chattanooga area. I live in NW Ga, about 8 miles south of Chatt. Anyone here close? And would anyone like to share thoughts for my area with this storm? Appreciate any and all opinions

[chapelhillwx]

So RaleighWX has a new discussion posted on his site. For the second day in a row, I can't access it.

[Brick Tamland]

So RaleighWX has a new discussion posted on his site. For the second day in a row, I can't access it.

I wonder if they shut it down if it gets too many hits.

[gdunn1]

Hey guys... I am new to the site and really am enjoying all the commentary. I am in the property management business and am always trying to stay ahead of the weather. What is the general thought for the Triad area in NC?

[Brick Tamland]

NAM says boomshakalaka!

[feloniousq]

Just posted on WRAL's facebook:

"Mike Maze is tracking the possibility of a white Christmas! Check in at 5:00 tonight for the latest."

This is exactly the problem I was talking about.

[jburns]

If RAH is going with the GFS, the no significant snow west of US1 makes sense.

If I say an elephant is a bird, riding it off of a cliff makes sense too.

[kanc2001]

Just posted on WRAL's facebook:

"Mike Maze is tracking the possibility of a white Christmas! Check in at 5:00 tonight for the latest."

This is exactly the problem I was talking about.

of course the news media are going to juice the hell outta this for ratings, especially since its xmas and such a potentially major event

[superjames1992]

So RaleighWX has a new discussion posted on his site. For the second day in a row, I can't access it.

Same here. I don't know what's going on with that.

[jburns]

What people do see, for better or worse, are the TV and newspaper forecasts. That's where the problem lies I think. And those people have an ulterior motive to build ratings, page hits, etc.

The on air mets read the AFDs. When they see that the Raleigh office is going with the GFS and stating no significant snow west of US1 most of them are going to go with it. Oh they will hedge a bit and say it could change depending on the track of the storm. They do that every time. But their forecast will reflect what was in the AFD.

[kanc2001]

for poops and giggles anybody have the latest JMA??

[Brick Tamland]

So, now the latest NAM run trended more towards the Euro, too.

[Lookout]

The on air mets read the AFDs. When they see that the Raleigh office is going with the GFS and stating no significant snow west of US1 most of them are going to go with it. Oh they will hedge a bit and say it could change depending on the track of the storm. They do that every time. But their forecast will reflect what was in the AFD.

Yeah Glen motherf***** burns on wsb out of atlanta is the worst at doing this. And considering how bad ffc is most of the time, you can imagine how bad his forecasts are. Throw in the insanely stupid "in house" model he trouts out all the time and you have a recipe for truly mind boggling stupid forecasts and high levels of aggravation for those who know he's selling bull***. I can watch him for about 10 or 15 seconds at most before getting angry with something stupid he says.

[Jet Stream Rider]

Just posted on WRAL's facebook:

"Mike Maze is tracking the possibility of a white Christmas! Check in at 5:00 tonight for the latest."

This is exactly the problem I was talking about.

lol!

I really dislike TV news in general. Its so much based on superficial sensationalism. Ohhhhh FaceBook indeed!

[Hugo]

lol!

I really dislike TV news in general. Its so much based on superficial sensationalism. Ohhhhh FaceBook indeed!

Well we tend to forget something that TV weathercasters know to be true.

All the general public wants to hear about this weekend is whether it's gonna snow. If you can hold their attention long enough, you might be able to tell them when and how much.

They couldn't care less about the science.

[Brick Tamland]

Yeah Glen motherf***** burns on wsb out of atlanta is the worst at doing this. And considering how bad ffc is most of the time, you can imagine how bad his forecasts are. Throw in the insanely stupid "in house" model he trouts out all the time and you have a recipe for truly mind boggling stupid forecasts and high levels of aggravation for those who know he's selling bull***. I can watch him for about 10 or 15 seconds at most before getting angry with something stupid he says.

I usually enjoy Greg Fishel with WRAL, but they just don't seem to get it right often when it comes to snow here. They seem to miss it by a large margin most of the time. And they have their own in house model, too.

[deltadog03]

Yeah Glen motherf***** burns on wsb out of atlanta is the worst at doing this. And considering how bad ffc is most of the time, you can imagine how bad his forecasts are. Throw in the insanely stupid "in house" model he trouts out all the time and you have a recipe for truly mind boggling stupid forecasts and high levels of aggravation for those who know he's selling bull***. I can watch him for about 10 or 15 seconds at most before getting angry with something stupid he says.

Too bad I can't forecast for you on tv down there lookout....I would be MAJOR honking the horn...I don't care what FFC does...they are the WORST NWS in the country. GB is full of SHI***

[fyredog28]

Maybe someone can throw me a bone here and tell me I'm on the right track or way wrong. Although it's been a little (I stress little) warmer am I correct in the assumption that the soil temps are still pretty cold. I apologize if this has already been answered.

[Marion_NC_WX]

I can't help but recall the '93 storm when talking about TV weather forecasts. Tony Dale, Channel 7 morning/miday weather anchor (not sure if he was a met or not), called that storm for 4 full days despite the fact that it wasn't in the evening forecasts. He nailed it! "It's going to snow, folks. It's going to snow a lot".

He left Channel 7 shortly after that. (not sure why LOL)

Tony Dale was one of the best Morning/Midday Meteorologists to ever work the Asheville-GSP television market. And BTW, he was a Certified Met. I miss seeing Tony on the noon show.

I vividly remember in March 93 that the National Weather Service office, which back then for WNC was at Asheville Regional Apt, had McDowell under a Winter Weather Advisory as late as Friday Night calling for 1-3 inches. Ken Bostic had a map on Channel 13 saying we would get 2-4 or locally higher. When Gary Stephenson broke into programming at 6 am the next morning, history was being made.

[feloniousq]

Maybe someone can throw me a bone here and tell me I'm on the right track or way wrong. Although it's been a little (I stress little) warmer am I correct in the assumption that the soil temps are still pretty cold. I apologize if this has already been answered.

For NC at least you can usually get a decent idea of soil temps here: http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/ Scroll down a little and look on the right hand side and you should see the thingie that lets you type in a Zip code.

Soil temp is 43.9 at Lake Wheeler near NCSU and looks like 41.3 for MBY.

[fyredog28]

Thanks