WeatherNC Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well that hurts. I did hear mention of some snow in Southern Alabama and South Georgia..Anything for the panhandle? Not with 850's in the 4-6C range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah. I was hoping a few hours after that frame the Cold air would rush in over the precip shield over the NW side of the low and turn over to snow. Still seems close enough for hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 and...here we go: Just kidding.... Kinda. 5-7" I'll take it...if this run showed 1-2" I'd be cliff jumping! I think it will get some mojo back...can't stay perfect forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think I will wet my finger and put it up in the air to forecast the weather from now on. Seems to be better than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmH56ypfFeA :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NegativeTilt Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Made my night!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rawlee Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 central NC is still money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 the northern stream and the southern stream have got to phase or there will be nothing to speak of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 i think it still happens, mets said there will a lot of flopping like a fish out of water when the storm came ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well, I guess any snow on Christmas is great, but I am worried about the model trends now. It seems they are getting worse instead of better, including the last Euro now. I am afraid they are just going to keep getting worse until there is nothing. And we're only 48 hours away now. It makes you wonder how the forecasters can trust them at all for any type of forecast outside 24 hours unless they show sunny and 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well, I guess any snow on Christmas is great, but I am worried about the model trends now. It seems they are getting worse instead of better, including the last Euro now. I am afraid they are just going to keep getting worse until there is nothing. And we're only 48 hours away now. It makes you wonder how the forecasters can trust them at all for any type of forecast outside 24 hours unless they show sunny and 75. I'm not liking the trends right now either. I'm affraid this will be just to far east and we don't see much precip. Hopefully I'm wrong and we'll see some good news on the models today. Now you can understand why RAH and local media don't throw out these warnings of a "big snowstorm" coming 5 days in advance. There always seem to be changes when nearing an event and most of the time they aren't good for our area. But I'm still very happy there is a chance of seeing some snow on Christmas and day after. It will make for a good holiday with the family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm not liking the trends right now either. I'm affraid this will be just to far east and we don't see much precip. Hopefully I'm wrong and we'll see some good news on the models today. Now you can understand why RAH and local media don't throw out these warnings of a "big snowstorm" coming 5 days in advance. There always seem to be changes when nearing an event and most of the time they aren't good for our area. But I'm still very happy there is a chance of seeing some snow on Christmas and day after. It will make for a good holiday with the family. Models aren't helping with this situation either. I mean the GFS is now leaving us with temp issues at 6z yet the euro slid a bit east and still delivers quite a storm for some areas. I love tracking weather and I hate tracking weather all at the same time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cvgram Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Made my night!! X 10000000! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The general idea from the GFS over the past day or two has been to keep the low closer to the coast and give central/eastern NC more precip. 06z is better than 00z, and 18z was even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Well, I guess any snow on Christmas is great, but I am worried about the model trends now. It seems they are getting worse instead of better, including the last Euro now. I am afraid they are just going to keep getting worse until there is nothing. And we're only 48 hours away now. It makes you wonder how the forecasters can trust them at all for any type of forecast outside 24 hours unless they show sunny and 75. Brick, Last night's euro backed way way down but still gives us over .5 liquid. The 6z GFS backed up and it gives us near .5 liquid. So using 10:1 ratios (which could be too low) that would give us 5" or so. I would take that for a Christmas night to next day event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 23, 2010 Author Share Posted December 23, 2010 Models aren't helping with this situation either. I mean the GFS is now leaving us with temp issues at 6z yet the euro slid a bit east and still delivers quite a storm for some areas. I love tracking weather and I hate tracking weather all at the same time! The 78hr panel on the six-z GFS from NCEP is a little misleading with the 850 line, but soundings from twisterdata show the layer is isothermal and SN, before and after this time we are good on this run verbatim... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Models aren't helping with this situation either. I mean the GFS is now leaving us with temp issues at 6z yet the euro slid a bit east and still delivers quite a storm for some areas. I love tracking weather and I hate tracking weather all at the same time! Yea, I know what you mean Shaggy. It can be a frustrating hobby sometimes. I have to remind myself sometimes that I'm in NC and not up north somewhere. It takes a lot of stuff to go right to get it to snow down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 so i am just getting up and moving and seeing a lot of 'bummer 'posts. while i try to catch up what happened? still have snow in the forecast for sat. and looks like it could be pretty widespread am i missing something? :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The current NAM run does not sound encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Now you can understand why RAH and local media don't throw out these warnings of a "big snowstorm" coming 5 days in advance. what i dont understand is why most people here dont get that? Not judging this event by any means, but how many times does one have to get their hopes up for something 5 days away to only have them crushed, before they understand how no one can predict this stuff that far out? Granted i know nothing, really nothing. But i know enough that if you are in the bullseye 5 days out, it probably isnt going to happen. That being said, id love to get blasted this weekend. Keep some corporate visitors out of town Monday and Tuesday...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I love the play by play of the model runs, but it would be nice if they said what it was showing was better or worse, and exactly what it shows for the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Christmas Day: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday Night: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 21. Wonder when this wonderful forecast will disappear? Still have a little hope for the mid day and over night runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If, if the Euro has blown this one...I refuse to trust that model in the future. I'll wait until 12z to proclaim it a bonified bust. At this point, I can't even say the Euro outdid the GFS. However, this is the second storm in as many weeks that went "poof" once the storm was on North American soil. On CPC today: PNA is going positive for January. AO is going positive. NAO can't seem to get to neutral - stays just south of neutral. 6z GFS still doesn't have a classic Nina look for January - no matter what JB says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It looks to me the trough will remain in the East in early January, but have little cold air to work with - but not near the torch that was expected. It seems it will also be stormy w/ the PNA being positive and the NAO being negative. January may not be a wash after all. It may also not be well above normal either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Brick, you need to learn by reading and then figure out what it means. I was helpless last year but I figured it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Christmas Day: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday Night: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 34. Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 21. Wonder when this wonderful forecast will disappear? Still have a little hope for the mid day and over night runs. i am hoping there is hope too! forecast here is snow/sleet fri night and snow saturday with heavy accumulations possible it better snow since i have already made everyone mad by informing them if it snows christmas they can celebrate at my house instead (ie., i wont be at the usual family gathering) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If, if the Euro has blown this one...I refuse to trust that model in the future. I'll wait until 12z to proclaim it a bonified bust. At this point, I can't even say the Euro outdid the GFS. However, this is the second storm in as many weeks that went "poof" once the storm was on North American soil. On CPC today: PNA is going positive for January. AO is going positive. NAO can't seem to get to neutral - stays just south of neutral. 6z GFS still doesn't have a classic Nina look for January - no matter what JB says. The Euro has failed before. Every model has. And again, they aren't people. There's no reason not to "trust" them because they didn't give you the snowstorm you wanted. Would you still hate the Euro if it said no snow and then a snowstorm showed up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I am still going to ride the white christmas train until the end. You just never know, these models don't know everything. Any snow falling is a + on Christmas Day. Watching and reading everyone's post 24x7 all week has been a HUGE educational experience for me. I have certainly learned a lot about this process of forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The Euro has failed before. Every model has. And again, they aren't people. There's no reason not to "trust" them because they didn't give you the snowstorm you wanted. Would you still hate the Euro if it said no snow and then a snowstorm showed up? Widre. I don't know you, and generally ignore your posts due to their lack of weather content. However, to be clear...The Euro this winter and last winter has not been a good model good in my opinion - especially in my region. Let's wait until the 12z and have this discussion. But if it folds at 12z, it spent three to four days w/ an erroneous, extreme solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's obvious today that a LOT of people bought into the superstorm scenario. So a lot are probably going to be disappointed. Give me an inch of snow and I'm happy. 3+ and I'm jumping for joy. If I want to see a ton of it, I'll go spend a weekend with my friend who lives in Banner Elk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.