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Storm Threat 3/31-4/1


NJwx85

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Models have been advertising for several days a WAA event transitioning to an intensifying coastal storm. All guidance points towards significant impacts with coastal flooding, strong winds, heavy rain and inland snows possible. The 12z GGEM would bring significant Wintry Weather to the far interior Saturday.

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11.png

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_12.png

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_13.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11.png

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3 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Looks like it's getting a little bit cooler.  My p&c shows ~36 hours of mixed precip now, yesterday it was showing all rain.  Yuck.

Upton seems to be getting concerned for more of a wintry event for the interior. Things have def trended colder

Across interior portions of NE NJ/Lower Hud Valley/Southern
CT...thermal profiles will be marginally cold enough to
complicate the forecast late Tonight through Friday Night. Storm
track will be critical...with a farther south track favoring
cooler and more wintry mix potential...while a track over NYC/LI
favors warmer thermal profile and more in the way of plain
rain.

At onset of steadier precip lat tonight/Fri am...evap cooling
will increase the likelihood for a wintry mix of rain/sleet and
snow across interior. Operational models all indicating warming
aloft as Fri morning progresses but to differing degrees. With
that said...March boundary layer warming should allow for precip
in most areas to become mainly rain by afternoon...except
elevations above 750-1000 ft or so.

Late Fri Aft into Fri night...dynamics increase as closed low energy
approaches and frontogenetic banding strengthens over the area
to the north of the developing coastal low. At the same time
low-level winds backing to the ne/n should allow the boundary
layer to slowly cool. The question will be whether diabatic
processes can overcome warming aloft from se llj to bring a
period of heavier sleet...possibly mixed with snow. 90 percent
exceedance snow/sleet forecast covers this low potential for a
period of complete changeover to wintry precip. Another concern
is that temperatures across interior...particularly higher
elevations...could haver around/drop to freezing Fri
night...introducing the potential for freezing rain. Marginal
temp profiles will not support efficient icing...but the threat
of hazardous travel from light icing exists.

Based on above...this is a low confidence snow/sleet accum
forecast for the interior. At this point the most likely outcome
is varying combinations of mixed precip during the period with
a light slushy accum of sleet/wet snow/fzra across the
interior...especially elevations above 750-1000 ft...by the
time everything winds down Sat am.
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33 minutes ago, sferic said:

It's likely with these elevation based storms that NYC/LI gets in on some mixed in frozen precipation too.

So many times in late March this happens without it being forecasted.

Highly unlikely, it's not even close for those areas. The GFS says the surface is going to be near 40 degrees during the heaviest precip.

gfs sounding

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26 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro now on board with next week being extremely wet as well. Some places get 5" between now and next Wednesday

Hopefully, this very wet period into early April marks the end of the 2 year drought pattern which was the driest here since 01 and 02.  I guess we'll find out once we see how the rest of the spring and summer turns out.

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3 hours ago, sferic said:

It's likely with these elevation based storms that NYC/LI gets in on some mixed in frozen precipation too.

So many times in late March this happens without it being forecasted.

I don't know about the 5 Boroughs, but I can definitely see Westchester, Rockland, and perhaps the N Shore of LI getting some flakes or mixing. 

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2 minutes ago, nzucker said:

I don't know about the 5 Boroughs, but I can definitely see Westchester, Rockland, and perhaps the N Shore of LI getting some flakes or mixing. 

Honestly im not sold on even seeing flakes up here let alone down there. Should be interesting to watch unfold tomorrow

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2 minutes ago, snywx said:

Honestly im not sold on even seeing flakes up here let alone down there. Should be interesting to watch unfold tomorrow

I'm supposed to be driving 17 to the Poconos tomorrow.

However, I've got the stomach thing…may stay home in the Bronx if it doesn't clear up.

Really would like to see the precip types up there though.

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8 minutes ago, snywx said:

Honestly im not sold on even seeing flakes up here let alone down there. Should be interesting to watch unfold tomorrow

Even up by you the best you are going to see is sleet mixing in with rain. Look at how far north the 0 degree 850mb line is, plus you have a mid-level warm punch at 750mb, that is not a snow sounding at all, maybe sleet up by you, definitely not snow. The boundary layer is also obviously a major issue. This is an all rain event for everyone south of your area

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Even up by you the best you are going to see is sleet mixing in with rain. Look at how far north the 0 degree 850mb line is, plus you have a mid-level warm punch at 700mb, that is not a snow sounding at all, maybe sleet up by you, definitely not snow. The boundary layer is also obviously a major issue. This is an all rain event for everyone south of your area

I agree.. I don't see anyone south of I-90 seeing anything appreciable. Tomorrow will have that wintry feel up here regardless.

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