chris624wx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 850s/925s are fairly isothermal < 0C around DCA up through Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, snjókoma said: Low doesn't get its act together in time... 15-20" philly and ne. Complete kick back to reality. As I can recall this time in March last year it was the only model with not much support for a noreaster 2 days out, and the GFS won that battle. I don't know, it could happen the same this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Euro is slower with the southern stream. GFS CMC UKMET just get the vortmax to the coast faster on bomb the low. The Euro low is more due to a coastal front and the vortmax tries to reform it further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Cobalt said: As I can recall this time in March last year it was the only model with not much support for a noreaster 2 days out, and the GFS won that battle. I don't know, it could happen the same this time. It's even an anomaly with its own runs the last few days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 I'll wait for confirmation from the 12z run before I get all weepy. It's kinda on it's own right now...but it's the Euro, so it does raise a flag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Not trying to be "that guy". But how far west does the 1 inch contour get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 So... will EPS be out at 2:30 or 3:30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, clskinsfan said: Not trying to be "that guy". But how far west does the 1 inch contour get? Winchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Midlevels are fine 95 and west. Surface hovers in low 30's with freezing line west of 95. Strange precip distribution. Theres a weak deform west of 95 but in the end we all end up with generally similar precip totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: So... will EPS be out at 2:30 or 3:30? 3:30..but that's still an hour and 13 mins from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: So... will EPS be out at 2:30 or 3:30? In like 45. I will post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Midlevels are fine 95 and west. Surface hovers in low 30's with freezing line west of 95. Strange precip distribution. Theres a weak deform west of 95 but in the end we all end up with generally similar precip totals. is total qpf around an inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, snjókoma said: Winchester. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: So... will EPS be out at 2:30 or 3:30? Well at 2:00 the clock skips an hour to 3am so 3:30 I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Amped said: Euro is slower with the southern stream. GFS CMC UKMET just get the vortmax to the coast faster on bomb the low. The Euro low is more due to a coastal front and the vortmax tries to reform it further south. Well, it may be reaching a bit here, but we are at the point where the GFS is assimilating RECON data (flights that went out over the GOMEX and with the system over the PAC NW), which the EC is not. So there's that in our favor (hopefully).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCWeatherGuy Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'll wait for confirmation from the 12z run before I get all weepy. It's kinda on it's own right now...but it's the Euro, so it does raise a flag So are the NAM and Euro solutions similar, or are they predicting different types of issues that explain why they are not agreeing with the more agressive projections of the GFS, Canadian, Ukie, etc.? (Yes, yes, I know the NAM isn't much this far out. Just curious.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Wow! So now the EURO is on an island...This gonna turn into a last minute model war? I wonder what it's seeing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, WxMan1 said: Well, it may be reaching a bit here, but we are at the point where the GFS is assimilating RECON data (flights that went out over the GOMEX and with the system over the PAC NW), which the EC is not. So there's that in our favor (hopefully).. Interesting... hadnt thought of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, DCWeatherGuy said: So are the NAM and Euro solutions similar, or are they predicting different types of issues that explain why they are not agreeing with the more agressive projections of the GFS, Canadian, Ukie, etc.? (Yes, yes, I know the NAM isn't much this far out. Just curious.) I haven't seen details of the Euro yet...but I think it's different issues...Euro seems like it doesn't get its act together until it's north of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Didn't this happen the same time yesterday? Maybe the 0z Euro just hates DC folks. I recall this time yesterday the Euro said just about the same thing, while crushing NYC and Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, DCWeatherGuy said: So are the NAM and Euro solutions similar, or are they predicting different types of issues that explain why they are not agreeing with the more agressive projections of the GFS, Canadian, Ukie, etc.? (Yes, yes, I know the NAM isn't much this far out. Just curious.) Euro is just weaker. It's 1004 off of obx and only down to 999 off of OC. That's the culprit. No bombing so no big deform totals. We all get an inch qpf but it's not hot and heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: So... will EPS be out at 2:30 or 3:30? It will be out in an hour. Which we will say is 3:30 because in 39 minutes we skip ahead one hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: In like 45. I will post Thanks. I am hoping that they are better than the OP... didnt we have sort of the same thing happen last night where the EPS came in sig better than the OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Euro is just weaker. It's 1004 off of obx and only down to 999 off of OC. That's the culprit. No bombing so no big deform totals. We all get an inch qpf but it's not hot and heavy. yeah the panels are like .4, .4, .2 for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 This winter the Euro has had a dry bias for heavy events, and the Ukie / GGEM have a wet bias. That might explain some of what we've seen tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Euro is the best model, but if GFS, CMC and UKMET all show a different thing and the same thing ignoring it maybe a good idea. Euro also has lower heights and SLP in the gulf, and looking at trends, it has been to low for the last several days in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Someone on twitter is risking reputation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 It's weird because when you look at hr54 there is good precip already down and the low off of obx is pretty juicy. You would think hr60 would be big but not much happens between the two panels. Well, except that se pa/nj get raked. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 This run was just funky. But it made a big jump nw with the qpf field but it has a drastically different storm evolution from the consensus of all the other guidance. Ok this sounds crazy but toss it. It's struggling right now. Before you throw rocks at me for blasphemy let me make the case to toss. The euro is not perfect. It was by far the worst leading into the storm last January with a couple fake out suppressed runs. Even to the end it was south of the gfs. It caused me some unneeded headaches up here having me on the northern fringe when in reality the gfs having that up in pa was closer and even that wasn't North enough. Its been jumping all over with this. So maybe it's right but which version. The run 12z Friday that looked like everything else tonight did. The run last night that was warm. The cold suppressed run today or this weird disjointed one tonight. It's all over the place run to run. Given its wild swings and a total consensus among all the other guidance I think it argues we toss this even if it is the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 13 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: Well, it may be reaching a bit here, but we are at the point where the GFS is assimilating RECON data (flights that went out over the GOMEX and with the system over the PAC NW), which the EC is not. So there's that in our favor (hopefully).. I'm wondering about this too. Does anyone have an answer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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