Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Wet and warm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, Deck Pic said: thermals are kind of gross.... As in we rain gross? or taint? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: As in we rain gross? or taint? Taint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Tapers starting around noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Taint I live with taint...kinda expected it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Does it show anything similar to the GFS portrayal of the OH valley low or is it still UKIE like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Precip is nuts... BWI is at nearly 1" QPF in 6hrs from 2a-8a Tues with 850 0C right along Rt. 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Ttb maps look okay at 850mb, but there's the 12 hour gaps between frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Found the 0z Panasonic I think, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Meh run....so warm...I hope the thermals are wrong.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I don't think my yard get below freezing and if it does its not for long. DC and east above freezing entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I guess we are going to hope that this is one of those EURO runs where it "loses" the storm and comes back better for us on the next run? Or that the EPS dont agree with the OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 It's within 75 miles of the GFS now. And right on top of the UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I don't think my yard get below freezing and if it does its not for long. DC and east above freezing entire event. It's certainly possible. I'll wait for 12z Euro to confirm. Looks like more northern stream interaction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Wxbell snowmap has 6" in D.C. And about 12 + pretty much everywhere north and north east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: I guess we are going to hope that this is one of those EURO runs where it "loses" the storm and comes back better for us on the next run? Or that the EPS dont agree with the OP? It doesn't lose the storm. It loses temps. Still wet as heck. Main difference from 12z that I can see if the ns low is further north and hangs on longer. It's into OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 sfc and Ul track look good.....let's hope the surface depiction is wrong.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Thermals are so dicey for DC. 850s and 925s flirt most of the time and surface stays above freezing. Hate to rely on rates to overcome that. Kuchera shows 5" in my yard but 1" in extreme SE FFX county. I hope the thermals are wrong. I'd much prefer GFS, UK, or even the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's certainly possible. I'll wait for 12z Euro to confirm. Looks like more northern stream interaction Shoot...so now we gotta sweat for another 12 hours! I wonder...Say it were to play out like this...We go from a foot or more to maybe half of that? If it had to go that way, I'd take it as a consolation prize... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Still good cold hp to the north but the ns low does the damage this run. Something I didn't expect after seeing the gefs back away from that problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 There is actually some decent wraparound once the storm passes and temps crash....nothing major....but perhaps enough to throw its 1-2" Tuesday evening/night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Euro is weird. Coastal Jersey gets hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Still good cold hp to the north but the ns low does the damage this run. Something I didn't expect after seeing the gefs back away from that problem. Bob, how does it look toward the 81 corrdidor/ blue ridge empire? Anything better than the horrid GFS run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 DCA never drops below 34...during the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Map posted in the NYC forum. Looks crazy Wilmington to Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Meh run....so warm...I hope the thermals are wrong.. I think the problem is it really gets going later then the 12z run so it's warmer initially and never recovers. It's also not as wet as the really crazy bands shifted northeast as it develops slower. Don't get me wrong 1.25 qpf isn't light but those 2" totals were near DC last run and that quicker development and tighter system at our pass plus banding helped keep it colder. This run was less all that. Even with a further west track it was less precip even up here because of a slower organization. It really got cranking to our northeast. This run isn't bad by itself but not thrilled if it's a trend. The euro isn't immune to minor fluctuations though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I mean even chincy SV gets 4" into NW DC...and 10-12" in I-81...I'm tempted not to melt over this run...It's not like it is 40 degrees...there is probably a warm nose in there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Matt, something doesn't compute. At 0z tues, surface is mid to upper 30's with dews in the low to mid 20s. Precip moves in and temps barely drop as dews rise. Surface winds are out of the NE. What am I missing here? Surface should cool quickly after dark with that setup. It's not like southerly winds are scouring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Little confused by this run- on EuroWX it shows through 96hr roughly 7" for Loudoun- but then at 12Z Thurs totals jump region wide to 16"+....has the evolution of the Low stalled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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