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NEG NAO

March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential

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Just now, seanick said:

I work on the Staten Island Ferry. I'll keep you posted tomorrow. 

Thanks! Used to fish with a clammer who was an oiler on the Ferry back in the day.

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No idea what to say about NYC with this storm given the model divergence. 02z HRRR still has 12"+ throughout the city, maybe 15-16" on the Hudson. NAM- :axe: GFS looks decent, and GGEM with a nuke. Hopefully we get some nice table scraps on the Island. It should be an obscene morning and early afternoon along I-287 and up towards Albany and through the Poconos. 

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1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

when does it really get cranking ? Should I stay up or set the alarm and wake up the crack of dawn ? do any of you guys know where I can take a look at the radar from the South ?

You can use any outlet for the radar. Something like accuweather.com, etc....

If you are going to get 4-5 hours of sleep...yea, get that sleep now and wake up  by 7am 

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4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

No idea what to say about NYC with this storm given the model divergence. 02z HRRR still has 12"+ throughout the city, maybe 15-16" on the Hudson. NAM- :axe: GFS looks decent, and GGEM with a nuke. Hopefully we get some nice table scraps on the Island. It should be an obscene morning and early afternoon along I-287 and up towards Albany and through the Poconos. 

I have never ever felt this uncertain about back home. Like I said earlier it's all about the front end thump. We ripped them rained during feb 14. I think you had 5 and I had 7 5 miles north meanwhile the far north shore had 14. Hopefully not a repeat. But I fully expect it to puke sleet while it's still snowing here. 

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No idea what to say about NYC with this storm given the model divergence. 02z HRRR still has 12"+ throughout the city, maybe 15-16" on the Hudson. NAM- :axe: GFS looks decent, and GGEM with a nuke. Hopefully we get some nice table scraps on the Island. It should be an obscene morning and early afternoon along I-287 and up towards Albany and through the Poconos. 


I would tend to agree with the colder more amped solutions.

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how can two sites on the same model be so off?

prateptype.us_ne.png&key=1bc0a895ca311caed66e2db45a8d1202355f7be5ea1baf5d726e4d1f96e05fc6


Different algorithms

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I hope this pushes east some . I work for NYChA Elevator division.  I was told today no matter what happens you find your way out to Brooklyn.  We are emergency service and city workers you have no choice...  

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Just now, USCG RS said:


I would tend to agree with the colder more amped solutions.

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With the dynamics being so great I would agree,  but I don't like the placement of the 700 mb low for East of NYC. 

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03z HRRR continues to show very impressive amounts for northern NJ.  18-19 inches of snow for the NYC suburbs with little mixing.

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6 minutes ago, USCG RS said:


I would tend to agree with the colder more amped solutions.

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The HRRR is plenty amped as well, it takes the low about over the twin forks. The mix line is heading north pretty steadily past ACY now, yet the model has snow for all of LI until 10am, and a few hours of mix after before ending around 2pm. Hopefully dynamics can overcome the advancing mix line soon (although its still over areas that are expecting little snow anyway) and make it slow down at least. I think the NAM was overdone, but it's hard to discount it totally this close in. 

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Just now, RU848789 said:

I just set my alarm for 3 am - 2 hours is all I can miss - gotta see the heavy stuff and measure...

I think you are around RU, my educated, radar based guess you are snowing heavily by 3am

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1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

I just set my alarm for 3 am - 2 hours is all I can miss - gotta see the heavy stuff and measure...

Thank you for measuring I use yours as my official tally. 

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1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

I just set my alarm for 3 am - 2 hours is all I can miss - gotta see the heavy stuff and measure...

That's not a bad plan. I can't fall asleep before seeing the EURO. Just no shot at it. So..instead of fighting it, I'll stay up until 2:30, and get up by 7am.

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7 minutes ago, Metsfan said:

With the dynamics being so great I would agree,  but I don't like the placement of the 700 mb low for East of NYC. 

I agree-Manhattan seems to be okay on most short range guidance (well over 12"), but it goes down to about 9-12" for me to less than 6" by Riverhead and east. This front end we're seeing now has to thump down, slow the mix line as much as possible and pile up. 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I agree-Manhattan seems to be okay on most short range guidance (well over 12"), but it goes down to about 9-12" for me to less than 6" by Riverhead and east. This front end we're seeing now has to thump down, slow the mix line as much as possible and pile up. 

Well, I'm in Hoboken - across the river from NYC - and it is still not snowing, the temperature is above freezing, and the reporting station never updates (seriously).

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Well, I'm in Hoboken - across the river from NYC - and it is still not snowing, the temperature is above freezing, and the reporting station never updates (seriously).



God you have to be the biggest Debbie downer. I'm in jersey city (prolly less 1/2 mile away) and it's snowing, albeit lightly but heavy enough where I can see a reduction in visibility just by looking out a window. Also, there's a light coating on the ground already on most surfaces. Don't know what you're looking at


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Just now, mranger48 said:

 


God you have to be the biggest Debbie downer. I'm in jersey city (prolly less 1/2 mile away) and it's snowing, albeit lightly but heavy enough where I can see a reduction in visibility just by looking out a window. Also, there's a light coating on the ground already on most surfaces. Don't know what you're looking at


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I'm looking out my window.

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6 minutes ago, NYCGreg said:

Well, I'm in Hoboken - across the river from NYC - and it is still not snowing, the temperature is above freezing, and the reporting station never updates (seriously).

I'm in Battery Park City and it's snowing here (lightly).

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