Derecho! Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Heckuva localized outbreak going on right now. Very impressive, hope none of these are producing too much. Looks like the Virginia Beach Tornado suddenly dissipated, but it had a PDS warning and on radar looked like a significant tornado for a good distance over a very densely populated part of Virginia Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, Derecho! said: Looks like the Virginia Beach Tornado suddenly dissapated, but it had a PDS warning and on radar looked like signficant tornado for a good distance over a very densely part of Virginia Beach. Hopefully not. Been scouring twitter for pics of the tornado and can't find any. Southern forum said there was a TDS at some point though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 NROT was above 2.0 on a couple of scans....I would be dumbfounded if there wasn't a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 642 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0620 PM TORNADO 3 SSE GREENBRIER 36.75N 76.18W 03/31/2017 CITY OF CHESAPEAKE VA LAW ENFORCEMENT TORNADO REPORTED AT CENTERVILLE TURNPIKE AND APPALACHIAN. CHURCH HAS BEEN DESTROYED. RELAYED BY 911. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Reports of a church destroyed by tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 On phone but heavy wording used for VA Beach TOR at 630 - http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KAKQ/1703312229.wwus51.html @SmokeEater says buildings also destroyed SW of VA Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 This is apparently from the tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 On phone but heavy wording used for VA Beach TOR at 630 - http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KAKQ/1703312229.wwus51.html@SmokeEater says buildings also destroyed SW of VA BeachListening to the scanner feed there's at the least heavy building damage. Vehicles in high water at the same time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 no thread started for the event(sleeper) but... 1/2 the posts in this sub forum and 1/2 in the other mayhem as usual in the eastern forums(because of all the sub forums) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Quite the sizeable tornado there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: no thread started for the event(sleeper) but... 1/2 the posts in this sub forum and 1/2 in the other mayhem as usual in the eastern forums(because of all the sub forums) I know people don't love fragmenting the board anymore but I think we need a severe sub topic similar to the tropics one. Severe events interest a lot of people and can cover differenr sub forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: I know people don't love fragmenting the board anymore but I think we need a severe sub topic similar to the tropics one. Severe events interest a lot of people and can cover differenr sub forums. I think the admins should have the ability to pin threads across the forums for large events. There can still be regional threads for impacts, but fractured ones for big events is silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said: no thread started for the event(sleeper) but... 1/2 the posts in this sub forum and 1/2 in the other mayhem as usual in the eastern forums(because of all the sub forums) You know I started writing a post on this but deleted it before you posted this. I loathe the subforums entirely. I looked and honestly couldn't figure out what parts of Virginia are supposed to be in what forum. The desire for subforums is 99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% comprised of snow weenies who can't tolerate their eyes viewing any information or discussion of anywhere that isn't their literal backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Day 6 15% should keep us entetained for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: Day 6 15% should keep us entetained for a bit. Very strong wording in the discussion too Surprised that @kmlwx isn't on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Organized severe thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and Southeast into the Mid Atlantic Coast region this coming Wednesday into Thursday... Amplification within the westerlies across the Pacific coast into the Plains by the middle of this week appears likely to shift eastward through the Atlantic Seaboard by next weekend. Models suggest that this will support the continuing development of a broad deep lower/mid tropospheric cyclone through the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Rapid substantive moisture return to the warm sector of the cyclone appears possible in the wake of a previous cyclone, initially along a developing warm frontal zone across parts of Alabama and Georgia by early Wednesday, closer to the cyclone center across the Ohio Valley by Wednesday evening, and across the Mid Atlantic Coast region by Thursday. Associated destabilization in the presence of favorable large-scale forcing for ascent and strengthening low-level and deep layer shear is expected to support considerable organized severe weather potential, including evolving storm clusters and discrete supercell activity. Severe wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible with strongest activity, along with a risk for large hail. It seems probable that areas of higher severe probabilities will be required in subsequent outlooks for this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Wording is certainty fairly strong. Rarely do we seem to see good descete cells, especially this early. Sounds like a moderate risk isn't out of the question in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 Wow - I was expecting to come back from a weekend of fun to "meh" but I'm excited. Gotta hold it for several days now, though. I was out all day at a beer and wine (and cider) festival yesterday and have been down for the count with work and a nasty cold or flu all week. Feeling much better now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 The GFS doesn't look particularly robust with parameters at this range. LWX discussion was also pretty meh. We will have to wait until it gets closer to have any clarity. We generally can only go more meh when we get a long range outlook like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The GFS doesn't look particularly robust with parameters at this range. LWX discussion was also pretty meh. We will have to wait until it gets closer to have any clarity. We generally can only go more meh when we get a long range outlook like this. It also looks to be coming a bit early in the day at the moment. Details are still changing though of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, George BM said: It also looks to be coming a bit early in the day at the moment. Details are still changing though of course. One thing that tends to happen around here is that severe threats tend to speed up a bit with time. So if models prog something to sweep through around 6pm we likely would see it between 1 and 3pm etc. Hopefully we can slow it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: One thing that tends to happen around here is that severe threats tend to speed up a bit with time. So if models prog something to sweep through around 6pm we likely would see it between 1 and 3pm etc. Hopefully we can slow it down. Part of me thinks that the trend towards earlier Thursday as apposed to late Thursday may be that models have the current low pressure system over Texas trending to a further northwest track every single run. My hypothesis is that a further northwest track of the current Texas/Gulf coast storm will allow the next system (our system) to feel its "pull" and pull it out of the Rockies quicker, thus making the storm be further east by the time the piece of energy coming behind it swings around the base of the trough. Or I'm just over-analyzing things and looking at too small a picture. Yeah, the latter is probably it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huriken Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 I believe the Euro is a little slower looking at the latest run. I'm not sure if it'll make a difference or not looking at the time stamp. Well, we are still four days away from the event, so maybe we will see some changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 6 hours ago, yoda said: Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Organized severe thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and Southeast into the Mid Atlantic Coast region this coming Wednesday into Thursday... Amplification within the westerlies across the Pacific coast into the Plains by the middle of this week appears likely to shift eastward through the Atlantic Seaboard by next weekend. Models suggest that this will support the continuing development of a broad deep lower/mid tropospheric cyclone through the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Rapid substantive moisture return to the warm sector of the cyclone appears possible in the wake of a previous cyclone, initially along a developing warm frontal zone across parts of Alabama and Georgia by early Wednesday, closer to the cyclone center across the Ohio Valley by Wednesday evening, and across the Mid Atlantic Coast region by Thursday. Associated destabilization in the presence of favorable large-scale forcing for ascent and strengthening low-level and deep layer shear is expected to support considerable organized severe weather potential, including evolving storm clusters and discrete supercell activity. Severe wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible with strongest activity, along with a risk for large hail. It seems probable that areas of higher severe probabilities will be required in subsequent outlooks for this time frame. Bigly intrigued for Thursday. Not 'in' yet, but it's certainly the kind of setup I like to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 3, 2017 Author Share Posted April 3, 2017 Couple tornadoes confirmed Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Had a lot of family go through some rough weather yesterday back in Louisiana. Looking forward to our day 4 severe here though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 You guys know I don't participate in the fine details of severe because I suck at it but this panel implies very active and dynamic wx overhead during the day thursday. Storms will be flying up from the south with strong mid and uppder level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Bob - the timing is my main concern. 18z is even a bit early. Wish the whole thing would slow a bit. But I'm not sure we can get that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 I'm also wondering about any CAD Thursday. NAM seems to have some CAD during the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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